Will Guelph Overcome Barrier for 2013 Blue Diamond Stakes Win?

She was the top fancy before the barriers were drawn but can the Peter Snowden-trained Guelph overcome her double digit gate and beat home smart Adelaide filly Miracles Of Life in the Blue Diamond Stakes 2013 at Caulfield Racecourse this Saturday?

Guelph

Guelph will look to secure the Blue Diamond Prelude - Blue Diamond Stakes double in 2013. Photo: Race Horse Photos Australia.

The fillies are dominating the betting markets for this year’s $1 million Group 1 Blue Diamond Stakes (1200m) with the Darley-owned Guelph the close $3.30 second pick behind the undefeated Daniel Clarken-trained Miracles Of Life ($2.80).

While Miracles Of Life’s claims for a Blue Diamond trophy were improved with her inside barrier one draw for the weekend, Guelph came up with gate 13 as drawn by jockey Kerrin McEvoy.

She comes into 12 with the two early scratchings but it is still a wide alley for the lightly raced daughter of Exceed And Excel.

Historically wide gates have been a hindrance in the Blue Diamond but the form is certainly right for Guelph who won the Group 3 Blue Diamond Fillies Prelude (1100m) last start, the same race Samaready won on way to her Blue Diamond triumph 12 months ago.

So can Guelph overcome her gate and be the second filly in as many years to take out the BD Prelude – BD Stakes double?

#8 Guelph – Horse Form

  • Barrier: 13 (into 12)
  • Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
  • Trainer: Peter Snowden
  • Owners: Sheikh Mohammed (Darley)
  • Age: 2YO
  • Gender: Fillies
  • Breeding: by Exceed And Excel (AUS) from Elusive Quality (USA) mare Camarilla (AUS)
  • Career: 3-2-1-0
  • Win: 66.67%
  • Place: 100.00%
  • Last 6: 2×11
  • Prize Money: $179,500
  • Track: 1-1-0-0
  • Distance: 0-0-0-0
  • Current 2013 Blue Diamond Stakes Odds: $3.30

Yes – Guelph Can be the 2013 Blue Diamond Stakes Winner

  • Darley’s No. 1 rider Kerrin McEvoy has the ride which will be his third time on her from four starts
  • McEvoy was aboard Guelph for her last start victory and also rode Darley’s 2010 Blue Diamond winner Sepoy
  • Is yet to finish out of the money with two wins and a second from her three starts
  • Unbeaten this time in with back-to-back wins
  • Comes off a nice 1.5 length win in the BD Prelude for fillies and 17 of the past 30 winners came via a run in a Prelude
  • As a last-start winner Guelph also has the upper hand with 21 of the past 30 winners also having won their previous start
  • Has the highest Win Rate (66.67%) outside of the three unbeaten horses in the race
  • Previous winner at the track which is always an advantage at Caulfield
  • Is yet to see the distance but did win over 1100m last start while the favourite #10 Miracles Of Life ($2.80) has only seen up to 1000m previously and no runner in this has been to the 1200m before
  • Wears the second most successful saddlecloth number in history (No. 8) which has produced four winners; No 1 (Crack A Roadie $18) is the most successful with five victories

No – Guelph Won’t Score an Upset Blue Diamond Stakes 2013 Result

  • She has a wide barrier to overcome and history says barriers 1 – 5 are the best to jump from with 13 of the past 22 winners coming from these inside alleys
  • Historically the boys have a better Blue Diamond record than the fillies with 26 males winning in the past 42 years

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