Murwillumbah trainer Matthew Dunn is looking...
This Saturday a field of the season’s most progressive young horses will take to Caulfield for the Blue Diamond Stakes 2013– the Races.com.au team’s insider form guide analysis and betting preview for which is outlined below.
Scheduled to jump as Caulfield Race 7 at 4:00pm (AEST) this year’s $1 million Group 1 Patinack Farm Blue Diamond Stakes (1200m) field is down to 13 hopefuls following the early withdrawal of Talindert Stakes winner Casquets and the injured Peter Moody-trained Thermal Current.
Of the 13 remaining juveniles it is the fillies leading the Blue Diamond Stakes odds with undefeated Adelaide youngster Miracles Of Life the firming $2.80 favourite with a strong chance of posting her fourth on the trot so long as she handles the distance and stays out of trouble from her inside alley.
Following closely in the Blue Diamond Stakes odds is then the Peter Snowden-trained Guelph who has the right form coming off back-to-back wins most recently in the Blue Diamond Prelude but who has a wide gate to overcome.
The only other runner under double figures is then the fellow Snowden-trained Metastasio ($6) who has won both of her starts thus far before the likes of Michael Kent’s up-and-coming Stratum filly Godiva Rock ($17) and the returning Stephen Theodore-trained Charge Forward colt Crack A Roadie ($18) follow at juicy prices.
So are the highly rated fillies the ones to beat? Or is there an upset Blue Diamond Stakes result on the cards this year?
To help you back this year’s winner at bookmaker.com.au our form experts have gone over the betting stats and historical facts to come up with the below must know info on the Blue Diamond field.
2013 Blue Diamond Form Facts & Stats
- Last year’s Blue Diamond Stakes winner was the Mick Price-trained Samaready who came off a win in the BD Fillies Prelude, jumped from barrier 7 (of 16) and was ridden by Craig Newitt
- Price is without a starter this year but last year’s winning hoop Newitt is booted to ride #4 The Bowler ($21)
- #16 Quest For Peace ($31) who moves in from gate eight to seven
- Inside alleys have historically been advantageous with 13 of the past 22 winners having jumped from 1 – 5 including two from gate one which is where this year’s favourite #10 Miracles Of Life ($2.80) has drawn
- This year’s Blue Diamond Fillies Prelude winner meanwhile was #8 Guelph ($3.30) who will look to secure the same double Samaready did 12 months ago
- Three other hopefuls also come off a last-start win with #9 Metastasio (Listed Chairman’s Stakes, 1100m Caulfield, 02/02/2013), #10 Miracles Of Life (Listed Blue Diamond Fillies Preview, 1000m, Caulfield, 26/01/2013) and #14 Gregers (2YO Fillies NMW, 1000m, Moonee Valley, 01/02/2013)
- Historically these last-start winners have the upper hand with 21 of the past 30 Blue Diamond winners having won their lead-up race
- Only two Blue Diamond winners in the past three decades were maidens before their victories with Principality (1995) and Nadeem (2006) who were both prepared by David Hayes
- There are three undefeated runners with 100 percent Win & Place rates: #9 Metastasio ($6), #10 Miracles Of Life ($2.80) and #14 Gregers ($21)
- Outside of this trio the horse with the best Win Rate in the field is then #8 Guelph (66.67%)
- Horses with previous winning form at Caulfield are #2 Dissident (2-1-0-1), #8 Guelph (1-1-0-0), #9 Metastasio (1-1-0-0), #10 Miracles Of Life (1-1-0-0) and #11 Montsegur (3-1-1-0)
- No horse has had a previous start over the distance
- The race favourite is #10 Miracles Of Life ($2.80) who hasn’t raced since her BD Preview win on Australia Day and the only previous Blue Diamond winner to go straight from a Preview to the big one was the David Hayes-trained Reaan (2008)
- Also against the top elect is that only four favourites have saluted for the punters since 1993, but two of those have been in the past two years
- The Blue Diamond Preludes have produced 17 of the past 30 winners with 11 two-year-olds completing the BD Prelude – BD Stakes double most recently Sepoy (2010) and Samaready (2011)
- While the fillies are dominant in betting this year the colts & geldings hold the advantage statistically with 26 winning males in the past 42 years; the shortest priced male in betting this year is #1 Crack A Roadie ($18)
- The most successful saddlecloth number meanwhile has been No 1 which also belongs on Saturday to #1 Crack A Roadie having produced five wins in the past 30 years
- Saddlecloth No 8 is the next most successful with four wins which belongs this year to #8 Guelph
Stay tuned to Races.com.au for our insider Blue Diamond Stakes betting tips to be published shortly.
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2013 Blue Diamond Stakes Field & Form Guide
Caulfield Race 7 – 4:00pm (AEST) – 23/02/2013
|1.||CRACK A ROADIE||Stephen Theodore||Craig Williams||9||56.5||2yoC||105||$88,500||2: 1 1 0||50.00%||100.00%||12x|
|2.||DISSIDENT||P G Moody||Vlad Duric||15||56.5||2yoC||14||$43,000||2: 1 0 1||50.00%||100.00%||13|
|3.||SHAMUS AWARD||D T O’brien||Nicholas Hall||4||56.5||2yoC||21||$14,767||3: 0 0 3||0.00%||100.00%||333|
|4.||THE BOWLER||A J Vasil||Craig Newitt||3||56.5||2yoC||14||$27,000||1: 0 1 0||0.00%||100.00%||2|
|5.||THERMAL CURRENT||P G Moody||Luke Nolen||6||56.5||2yoC||28||$18,100||2: 0 1 1||0.00%||100.00%||23|
|6.||I AM TITANIUM||D A Hayes||Chad Schofield (a)||14||56.5||2yoC||21||$12,900||2: 0 1 0||0.00%||50.00%||24|
|7.||FAST ‘N’ ROCKING||D A Hayes||Steven Arnold||5||56.5||2yoC||14||$4,850||3: 0 0 0||0.00%||0.00%||7×44|
|8.||GUELPH||Peter Snowden||Kerrin Mc Evoy||13||54.5||2yoF||14||$59,833||3: 2 1 0||66.67%||100.00%||2×11|
|9.||METASTASIO||Peter Snowden||Glen Boss||12||54.5||2yoF||21||$60,250||2: 2 0 0||100.00%||100.00%||11|
|10.||MIRACLES OF LIFE||D J Clarken||Lauren Stojakovic (a)||1||54.5||2yoF||28||$38,367||3: 3 0 0||100.00%||100.00%||111|
|11.||MONTSEGUR||Peter Snowden||Christian Reith||8||54.5||2yoF||14||$38,133||3: 1 1 0||33.33%||66.67%||162|
|12.||CASQUETS||M A Kavanagh||SCRATCHED||16||54.5||2yoF||7||$38,250||2: 1 0 1||50.00%||100.00%||31|
|13.||KONA BREEZE||P G Moody||Brett Prebble||10||54.5||2yoF||21||$12,850||3: 0 3 0||0.00%||100.00%||222|
|14.||GREGERS||D A Hayes||Dwayne Dunn||11||54.5||2yoF||22||$65,000||1: 1 0 0||100.00%||100.00%||1|
|15.||GODIVA ROCK||M C Kent||Michael Rodd||2||54.5||2yoF||14||$13,500||1: 0 0 1||0.00%||100.00%||3|
|16.||QUEST FOR PEACE||P G Moody||Daniel Stackhouse||7||54.5||2yoF||14||$6,075||2: 0 0 0||0.00%||0.00%||4×4|
*Fixed Win odds provided by bookmaker.com.au and subject to change
*Form Guide Credit – Ladbrokes.com.au
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