Murwillumbah trainer Matthew Dunn is looking...
This Saturday all eyes will be on Victoria’s famous Flemington Racecourse for the highly-spruiked return of the world’s highest-rated mare Black Caviar who heads the race named in her honour, the 2013 Black Caviar Lightning Stakes– the Races.com.au exclusive form guide and betting preview for which is detailed below.
Undefeated in 22 starts and counting Peter Moody’s brilliant Bel Esprit speedster hasn’t raced since her heart-stoppingly close win in the Diamond Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot back in June.
She pulled up with some injuries after that thrilling international success and for a time talk was she had run her last race.
But on Saturday the Black Flash is back running in the $500,000 Group 1 Black Caviar Lightning (1000m), a race she has won for the past two years running.
So can she do it again?
All reports from team Moody are that she’s back to her best fitness wise and ready to retain her undefeated status writing another chapter into the enthralling history that is Black Caviar.
Unsurprisingly Black Caviar is odds-on favourite in the Lightning Stakes odds sitting at a short $1.06 after coming up trumps with barrier two of eight having eased ever so slightly from $1.05.
While there’s only the tiniest bit of doubt she can win again on the weekend, it’s still worth looking at the Lightning Stakes field, form guide and history to uncover any statistical reasons not to back the queen.
It can also be useful when it comes to working out the Lightning Stakes trifecta and which horses will fill the minor placings come Flemington Race 7 at 4:30pm (AEST) on Saturday so you can lock them in at the hottest odds online at bookmaker.com.au.
2013 Lightning Stakes Form Facts & Betting Stats
- Black Caviar has won the past two Lightning Stakes last year from barrier 5 (of 9) third-up and in 2011 first-up from gate six (of 9) ridden both times by Luke Nolen
- This year #6 Black Caviar ($1.06) is first-up again like she was for her first Lightning success, Nolen in the saddle once more with a nice barrier two draw out to become the first horse in history to win the race three times
- The only one of the seven dual Lightning Stakes winners in history to vie for a third win were Schillaci (second in 1994 after wins in 1992-3) and Sky High (third in 1963 after wins in 1961-2)
- Last year’s winning barrier (5) meanwhile belongs on Saturday to #4 Go The Knuckle ($81)
- Black Caviar became the shortest-priced Lightning Stakes winner in history last year at $1.10, a record she will look to surpass this year as she looks to become the fourth Lightning Stakes favourite to win in the past decade
- Being undefeated Black Caviar obviously boasts the best Win & Place rates of the field (100%)
- Following her with the next highest Winning Strike Rate are then #3 Moment Of Change (55.56%) and #2 Golden Archer (47.06%) who are both also prepared by Moody and likely to get a nice run up near their star stablemate
- The best Place Rates after Black Caviar meanwhile belong to #3 Moment Of Change (88.895) and #4 Go The Knuckle (80.00%)
- The other last-start winners in the race aside from the favourite are #3 Moment Of Change (Group 1, Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes, 1400m, Caulfield, 30/09/2012) and #8 Shamexpress (3YO Handicap, 1000m, Moonee Valley, 25/01/2013)
- #3 Moment Of Change ($17) is also the only other Group 1 winner in the mix but they do see both the track & distance for the first time here
- Horses with the best form at the track are #6 Black Caviar (7-7-0-0), #2 Golden Archer (6-3-2-0), #1 First Command (6-2-1-1) and #8 Shamexpress (3-1-0-1)
- Over the distance the ones to beat are #6 Black Caviar (5-5-0-0), #2 Golden Archer (8-4-2-1), #1 First Command (11-6-1-1), #4 Go The Knuckle (6-2-2-2) and #8 Shamexpress (1-1-0-0)
- Meanwhile the horses to have won over the track and distance previously are then #6 Black Caviar (3-3-0-0), #1 First Command (2-2-0-0) and #2 Golden Archer (3-2-1-0)
Get behind Black Caviar next race and lock in your selections for the Lightning Stakes 2013 online now at bookmaker.com.au enjoying a $400 bonus bet on the house if you are new depositing player that quotes the code BONUSBET!
2013 Lightning Stakes Field & Form Guide
Flemington Race 7 – 4:30pm (AEST) – 16/02/2013
|1.||FIRST COMMAND||Anthony Freedman||Steven Arnold||8||58.5||7yoG||14||$29,422||32: 12 6 3||37.50%||65.63%||0x0113|
|2.||GOLDEN ARCHER||P G Moody||Daniel Stackhouse||1||58.5||4yoH||100||$37,174||17: 8 4 1||47.06%||76.47%||14252x|
|3.||MOMENT OF CHANGE||P G Moody||Linda Meech||3||58.5||4yoG||139||$46,654||9: 5 0 3||55.56%||88.89%||1x131x|
|4.||GO THE KNUCKLE||R W Smerdon||Nicholas Hall||5||58.5||4yoG||42||$26,620||10: 3 2 3||30.00%||80.00%||137×23|
|5.||SPIRIT CENT||J Leek Jnr||Kerrin Mc Evoy||7||58.5||5yoG||132||$3,960||26: 6 2 2||23.08%||38.46%||75668x|
|6.||BLACK CAVIAR||P G Moody||Luke Nolen||2||56.5||6yoM||238||$309,202||22: 22 0 0||100.00%||100.00%||11111x|
|7.||SATIN SHOES||C E Conners||Craig Williams||6||56.5||4yoM||98||$32,300||22: 5 5 2||22.73%||54.55%||32280x|
|8.||SHAMEXPRESS||D T O’brien||Glen Boss||4||55.5||3yoC||22||$20,684||8: 2 1 2||25.00%||62.50%||x39531|
*All odds quoted are Fixed Win from bookmaker.com.au and subject to change
*Form Guide Credit – Ladbrokes.com.au
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