This Saturday the 2013 Magic Millions 3YO Guineas will take place as part of the elite Gold Coast Magic Millions Day racing action and below the Races.com.au crew have made their insider tips on the $1 million feature public knowledge.
Scheduled to jump at 2:45pm as Race 5, the $1 million Gold Coast Magic Millions 3YO Guineas (1400m) is shaping up as a top showdown with the bumper field featuring plenty of local and interstate talent.
Group 1 winning Brisbane colt Sizzling has been pushed down to the second line of Magic Millions Guineas betting as the money continues to pour in for Gai Waterhouse’s Redoute’s Choice filly No Looking Back.
Second after losing her first place position upon protest in last year’s Magic Millions Classic, No Looking Back has been smashed by the punters for her return to the Gold Coast on the weekend now the $4.60 favourite after her good first-up win in the Listed Carrington Stakes (1100m) at Rosehill on New Year’s Day.
No Looking Back’s MM Classic winning stablemate Driefontein is then the easing $5.50 third pick – nicely drawn in gate three she is out to atone for her first-up defeat as the beaten favourite in the Wyong MM Stakes last time out.
So this is what the bookies and punters are saying but are we sticking with the top fancies or backing another longer-priced MM Guineas hopeful for value?
Earlier we published our exclusive 2013 Magic Millions 3YO Guineas Form Guide & Preview and based on the facts and stats we uncovered below are our tips for the big one on the weekend.
#10 No Looking Back ($4.60)
- Market mover having being heavily backed and we can see why
- First past the post in the MM Classic here last year and only lost that on protest so track holds no fears
- Should get a gun run from gate five
- Late jockey change shouldn’t make too much of an impact
- Caught the eye with her first up stakes win in Sydney and can bring that form to the sunshine state
- Looks to have come on well as a 3YO
- Second best place rate of the field with 80%
#9 Driefontein ($5.50)
- Will follow No Looking Back right up to the line and high chance the two fillies will be battling for the trophy again
- Odds are easing so she adds a bit of value
- Gate three is ideal if they can stay out of trouble
- Has finished runner-up in her three most recent runs
- Was defeated first-up as the odds-on favourite by fellow MM Guineas rival She’s A Stalker in the Wyong MM Stakes but should go better with the run under her belt
- One of the best Win Rates (50%) and the highest Place Percentage (87.5%)
- No horse has won the MM Classic and then the Guineas in successive years but keep in mind she wasn’t first past the post
- One of only three official winners at the Gold Coast track in this field
#15 She’s A Stalker ($11)
- Genuine chance on the rails if she avoids traffic
- Super consistent record with the third best place rate of the field (71.43%)
- Beat Driefontein to win the Wyong MM 3YO race two back in fine style
- Wasn’t quite as sharp when beaten by MM Guineas emergency Bennetta last start at Canterbury but should be back to her best with less weight here
- Her Wyong win is good form for this race with two of the past three MM Guineas winners (Torio’s Quest & Graceful Anna) having won at Wyong before their Gold Coast victories
Roughie We Like
#2 Lucky Hussler ($15)
- Generous odds on this last start Group 3 Vo Rogue Plate winner who will relish the distance
- Got the better of (an unlucky) Sizzling (just) last start so that’s a good run right there
- Keeps improving with each start and looks to be hitting their peak
- Has a horror draw (17) as does Sizzling (20) so needs to overcome that which is a big ask
- Last year’s Vo Rogue winner Punch On backed up to also take out the MM Guineas
- Punch On was Gold Coast trained and Lucky Hussler looks the best chance for the locals to win again this year
- Good 50% Win Rate, equal second best in the field
- As well as the gate their 58kg is a big ask too as the weight carrying record in this event is 56.5kg set by Heart Of The Citi in 2008
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