Murwillumbah trainer Matthew Dunn is looking...
They are one of the top three fancies for the 2012 Patinack Farm Classic but can the Peter Snowden-trained Mental get in the zone and turn the tables on their last-start conqueror Sea Siren in the Emirates Stakes Day feature at Flemington on Saturday?
Four-year-old Lonhro gelding Mental, a winner of six of their 11 starts to date, stepped up to Group 1 level for the first time last time out when they ran a brilliant first-up second beaten only a quarter length by John O’Shea’s smart mare Sea Siren in the Manikato Stakes (1200m) at Moonee Valley.
On Saturday they will again face Sea Siren in a Group 1 clash when they line-up in the $1 million Patinack Farm Classic (1200m), Mental drawn in double digits with barrier 10 of 15.
A dual stakes winner in Brisbane during the winter Mental boasts plenty of potential and was able to finish ahead of a number of their Patinack rivals in the Manikato including Hallowell Belle (4th) and Buffering (6th).
As such they are high up the Patinack Farm Classic betting markets occupying the third line of betting.
Markets are led by Sea Siren ($3.60 out to $3.80) while Buffering is the firming second favourite in from $5.50 to $5.
Mental meanwhile was at $5.50 with Buffering earlier but has since eased out slightly to $6.
So does this lightly-raced sprinter have what it takes to post their maiden elite level success at just their 12th start?
Sea Siren’s trainer O’Shea certainly believes they are one of the main dangers.
“Mental got pretty close to us at the Valley and he is going to have the cold sit on us down the straight,” O’Shea said.
“You would think he is going to be better at Flemington and, being a Darley horse, he will be trained to the minute.”
Below we have all the facts and stats on Mental providing an analysis on whether they are a good Patinack Farm Classic bet to make this weekend.
#5 Mental – Horse Facts & Stats
- Barrier: 10
- Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
- Trainer: Peter Snowden
- Owners: Sheikh Mohammed
- Age: 4YO
- Gender: Gelding
- Breeding: by Lonhro (AUS) from Night Shift (USA) mare Intrigues (AUS)
- Career: 11-6-1-1
- Win: 54.55%
- Place: 72.73%
- Last 6: 1151×2
- Prize Money: $490,060
- Track: 1-0-0-0
- Distance: 4-1-1-1
- Current 2012 Patinack Farm Classic Odds: $6
Why Mental Can be the 2012 Patinack Farm Classic Winner
- Beat a number of these last time out including the second favourite Buffering
- Regular rider Kerrin McEvoy stays on
- Has a decent record over the 1200m (4-1-1-1)
- Charged home in the Manikato from the back of the field to run a slashing second
- The straight track at Flemington should suite this horse but perhaps the favourite Sea Siren won’t like it as much as the tight turns
- Likely to hit the front and lead and if they have the guts to hang on will be hard to run down
Why Mental Won’t Win the Patinack Farm Classic 2012
- Has barrier 10 to overcome
- Faces some more seasoned horses again here
- Is this their right distance? Look more like a 1400m – 1600m horse even though their 1200m record is fare (4-1-1-1)
- Fancy for a Place Bet over the Win
- Also needs to turn the tables on Sea Siren who beat him home in the Manikato
- Has had just one run at Flemington before when fourth on Emirates Stakes Day last year
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