Kelinni a Roughie Chance to Clean-Up in Melbourne Cup 2012?

They were the 11th hour Melbourne Cup horse that snuck into the field with a Lexus Stakes win last Saturday but is the Chris Waller-trained Kelinni any kind of chance at winning the 2012 Melbourne Cup this afternoon?


Lexus Stakes winner Kelinni is Glen Boss' chance at a fourth Melbourne Cup

The Refuse To Bend four-year-old ruined the Cup dreams of Moudre who was outed a spot in the 24-horse field for the $6.2 million Group 1 Emirates Melbourne Cup (3200m) with their ballot exemption win on Derby Day.

Now they are out to prove in Flemington Race 7 this afternoon that they deserve their position in the Melbourne Cup line-up, Kelinni looking to emulate Shocking (2009) who was the last horse to win the Lexus Stakes – Melbourne Cup double.

While the form of their Lexus success is questionable, Kelinni remains a steady $21 chance in the Melbourne Cup odds.

There’s certainly a few things working in their favour today including their ideal barrier 10 draw, their 51kg light-weight and the ‘Boss Factor’ with triple Melbourne Cup winning jockey Glen Boss in the saddle.

So can Kelinni complete the Melbourne Cup fairy tale for Waller and break his maiden in the ‘race that stops a nation’?

Boss need to still be convinced.

“Can I win my fourth Cup? I don’t know, maybe. I’m happy to get a last-minute guernsey. I can tell you that,” Boss wrote in the Herald Sun.

“The positives for Kelinni are that he will run a strong two miles.

“He’s consistent and trainer Chris Waller tells me he’s come through Saturday’s run really well. That’s so important. There isn’t a lot of turnaround between Saturday and Tuesday.

“Kelinni has the ability to put himself in the race and from the draw I reckon he’ll get a lovely run. I’ll just go out, hold my spot and wait.

“At some point he will look the winner. The query? I just don’t quite know if he’s got the class but I’ll do my darnedest to find out.”

So can Kelinni hand Boss is fourth Melbourne Cup and Waller his first?

Below is the evidence both for and against backing Kelinni to win the 2012 Melbourne Cup.

#24 Kelinni – Horse Form

  • Barrier: 10
  • Jockey: Glen Boss
  • Trainer: Chris Waller
  • Owners: Mr F W Cook, Mr I Bruce, G G Ltd, Mr K J Hunt, Mr B L Mathieson, Mr R Smith, Mr R Portaro, Mr G R Stead, Werrett Bloodstock Pty Ltd, EST B A Wright
  • Age: 5YO
  • Gender: Gelding
  • Breeding: by Refuse To Bend (IRE) out of Darshaan (GB) mare Orinoco (IRE)
  • Career: 18-8-3-3
  • Win: 44.44%
  • Place: 77.78%
  • Last 6: 114121
  • Prize Money: $514,502
  • Track: 1-1-0-0
  • Distance: 0-0-0-0
  • Current 2012 Melbourne Cup: $21

Why Kelinni Can Score an Upset Melbourne Cup 2012 Result

  • Is coming off sensational form having won two of their past three starts including the Lexus Stakes last Saturday
  • Advantages being one of just three last-start winners in the field with 12 of the past 19 Melbourne Cup winners having won their lead-up race
  • The Lexus Stakes – Melbourne Cup double was completed only recently by Shocking in 2009
  • Nice barrier 10 draw – this gate has produced six Melbourne Cup winners in history, the second most following barrier 11
  • Is the right age as a five-year-old as 5YO’s boast the best record in the Cup with 44 winners
  • Glen Boss gets the ride – Boss is one of Australia’s best jockeys and has won three Melbourne Cups with Makybe Diva (2003-05)
  • Boasts the fourth best Win Rate of the field (44.44%) and the second best Place Percentage (77.78%)
  • Is the 51kg light-weight of the field; meets last year’s winner Dunaden (59kg) an incredible 8kg better at the weights

Why Kelinni Won’t be the 2012 Melbourne Cup Winner

  • Could be a better place bet with a place rate of 77.78%
  • Needs to get the distance (3200m) having only ever raced over 2500m before
  • Does he have the class?
  • Is on a quick back-up from Saturday – Tuesday and could be feeling the pain

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