Form guru Dominic Beirne believes that Dunaden is good enough to carry 59kg and win the 2012 Melbourne Cup that will be run at Flemington Racecourse this afternoon.
Beirne admits that history is against the French stayer but he can’t rule him out as Melbourne Cup contender and believes he is over the odds at his current price.
Beirne, a former leading bookmaker, has analysed the history of the race and has found a number of reasons why Dunaden shouldn’t be able to win his second Melbourne Cup.
”No winners, and only three horses, have been placed with 59-plus kilograms in the Melbourne Cup since 1959,” Beirne said.
“80 per cent of previous-year Cup winners have run unplaced the following year.”
However, Beirne said that Dunaden always finds his best form in Australia and has recorded personal best ratings in the 2011 Melbourne Cup and 2012 Caulfield Cup.
Beirne has Dunaden assessed as a $6 chance, just below his current quote of $7 at bookmaker.com.au.
The leading form analyst also found that history is against Luca Cumani-trained Mount Athos who has been well backed in Melbourne Cup betting markets.
“The past sixty-one Northern Hemisphere horses who’ve attempted the Melbourne Cup without a lead-up run in Australia have lost,” Beirne said.
However, he admitted that the son of Montjeu has been weighted to win the Melbourne Cup.
“Mount Athos has beaten the handicapper – he is the top rated horse on weight-ratings, if he runs to his best,” he said.
Do you agree with Beirne or fancy your own selections?
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