This afternoon’s Melbourne Cup winner will be elevated into the league of greats and go down as one of history’s champion thoroughbreds, but before we look forward it is important to look back and study what will be the winning Melbourne Cup 2012 lead-up form.
What is the best worn path towards the ‘race that stops a nation’?
Is there one race, or a collection of races, that have proven a winning formula for the world’s richest handicap?
Can you pick the winner of the $6.2 million Group 1 Emirates Melbourne Cup (3200m) by studying the winning lead-up form of past champions?
Well you can certainly try!
Below we take a look at the track taken by the recent Melbourne Cup winners and see if there are any patterns that emerge when looking at which horse to back in the 2012 Melbourne Cup odds.
2011 Melbourne Cup Winner Dunaden
- Won Geelong Cup
- 9th Prix Kergorlay (FR)
- 2nd Longchamp
2010 Melbourne Cup Winner Americain
- Won Geelong Cup
- Won Prix Kergorlay (FR)
- Won Prix Du Carrousel (FR)
2009 Melbourne Cup Winner Shocking
- Won Leuxs Stakes
- 2nd Coongy Handicap
- 2nd Herbert Power Hcp
2008 Melbourne Cup Winner Viewed
- Last Mackinnon Stakes
- 10th Caulfield Cup
- 7th Underwood Stakes
2007 Melbourne Cup Winner Efficient
- 9th Cox Plate
- 11th Turnbull Stakes
- 4th Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes
2006 Melbourne Cup Winner Delta Blues
- 3rd Caulfield Cup
- 10th Tenho Sho (JPN)
- 3rd Dalshoten (JPN)
So what does the above tell us when it comes to the 2012 winning Melbourne Cup form?
Last year Dunaden came off a Geelong Cup win and this year they are back having won the Caulfield Cup at their last start
The last Melbourne Cup winner to come via the Caulfield Cup was Delta Blues (3rd in 2006)
The Caulfield Cup has produced more Melbourne Cup winners than any other lead-up race in recent years
Other Melbourne Cup horses coming via the Caulfield Cup aside from the winner Dunaden are then:
- #20 Lights Of Heaven (3rd)
- #2 Americain (4th)
- #17 My Quest For Peace (5th)
- #23 Zabeelionaire (6th)
- #5 Winchester (9th)
- #9 Sanagas (10th)
- #18 Niwot (12th)
- #3 Jakkalberry (13th)
- #13 Glencadam Gold (15th)
- #6 Voila Ici (18th of 18)
The past three Melbourne Cup winners all won their lead-up races, as have 12 of the past 19
This year there are five last-start winners in the Melbourne Cup with:
- #1 Dunaden ($7) – Group 1 Caulfield Cup, 2400m Caulfield (AUS), 20/10/2012
- #8 Mount Athos ($7) Group 3 Geoffrey Freer Stakes, 2670m, Newbury (GB), 18/08/2012
- #12 Galileo’s Choice ($15) – Group 3 Ballyroan Stakes, 2414m, Leopardstown (IRE), 09/08/2012
- #16 Mourayan ($26) – Group 3 Craven Plate, 2000m, Randwick, 06/10/2012
- #24 Kelinni ($21) – Group 3 Lexus Stakes, 2500m, Flemington, 03/11/2012
The past two Melbourne Cup winners both ran in the Prix Kergorlay two starts back
This year #2 Americain (6th) is the only Cup hope to have run in the race, which they won back in 2010
Shocking won the Lexus Stakes – Melbourne Cup double in 2009; this year #24 Kelinni ($21) will look to complete the same double
The only other horses to come via a Derby Day race this year are then #23 Zabeelionaire ($51) and #5 Winchester ($51) who ran fifth and sixth respectively in the Mackinnon Stakes
The last Melbourne Cup winner to have run in the Mackinnon Stakes was Viewed (2008) who finished dead last
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