Can Green Moon Eclipse Melbourne Cup 2012 Rivals?

He may have gone down as the beaten favourite in the Cox Plate last start but can Green Moon return to form in the 2012 Melbourne Cup and win the two mile classic at Flemington Racecourse?

Green Moon

Green Moon could struggle to get the 3200m of the Melbourne Cup 2012

The Robert Hickmott-trained, Lloyd Williams-owned Montjeu five-year-old is still one of the better fancied chances in the markets for Tuesday’s $6.2 million Group 1 Emirates Melbourne Cup (3200m) despite their disappointing loss in the Cox Plate on October 27.

In what will be their first Melbourne Cup attempt Green Moon will this year be ridden by Aussie expat Brett Prebble who makes the trip from Hong Kong especially to partner the Turnbull Stakes winner with their regular rider Craig Williams committed to ride defending Melbourne Cup winner Dunaden.

So can Green Moon rise to the occasion on Melbourne Cup Day and be a competitive force to the internationally-trained stars that are dominating the Cup betting markets in their first run over the two miles?

Williams, a three-time Melbourne Cup winning owner certainly believes so with the horse primed to enjoy the roomier track at Flemington with 53.5kg as opposed to the 59kg under WFA conditions on the tight Moonee Valley circuit last start.

“Green Moon hasn’t shown to me he is a genuine weight-for-age horse but when he gets back to 53.5kg in a handicap race at Flemington, he is a terrific competitor,” Williams said.

As the opinion of connections can often be bias, however, below are the pros and cons of backing the European import to score an upset Melbourne Cup result based on the facts and form stats.

#14 Green Moon – Horse Form

  • Barrier: 5
  • Jockey: Brett Prebble
  • Trainer: Robert Hickmott
  • Owners: Mr N C Williams, Mr L J Williams, Mrs S J Williams
  • Age: 6YO
  • Gender: Horse
  • Breeding: by Montjeu (IRE) from Green Tune (USA) mare Green Noon (FR)
  • Career: 19-6-3-0
  • Win: 31.58%
  • Place: 47.37%
  • Last 6: 1×5217
  • Prize Money: $1,185,096
  • Track: 5-2-1-0
  • Distance: 0-0-0-0
  • Current 2012 Melbourne Cup: $17

Why Green Moon Can Score Melbourne Cup 2012 Win

  • Drawn to perfection in barrier five which has produced six Melbourne Cup winners since 1924, the second highest behind barrier 11 (7 wins)
  • Ace Hong Kong-based Aussie hoop Brett Prebble comes over for the ride and the past two Melbourne Cup winners were ridden by internationally-based jockeys
  • Owner Lloyd Williams has won three Melbourne Cups with Just A Dash (1981), What A Nuisance (1985) and Efficient (2007)
  • Should relish coming back to just 53.5kg in the handicap after carrying 59kg last start under weight-for-age conditions
  • Is the right sex as a stallion as entires have the best record in the Melbourne Cup with 65 wins
  • While 4 and 5 year olds have the best record six-year-olds have won 30 Melbourne Cups over the years including five of the past 11 most recently with Dunaden last year
  • Flemington record is imposing with two wins and a second from five starts

Why Green Moon Won’t Win the 2012 Melbourne Cup

  • The two miles looks like it will be a real challenge for a horse who runs their best over 2000m
  • Has never raced beyond 2040m and are stepping right up to 3200m
  • Loses their regular rider Craig Williams who jumps on #1 Dunaden ($7.50)
  • Their seventh in the Cox Plate over 2040m last time out was below par and they need to improve a lot on that run especially as 12 of the past 19 Melbourne Cup winners won their lead-up race

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