Murwillumbah trainer Matthew Dunn is looking...
This afternoon Melbourne’s Flemington Racecourse will be host to the opening Melbourne Cup Carnival meeting – 2012 Victoria Derby Day – and to help you clean out the bookies today below are our Derby Day Best Bets & Tips telling you which horses to back and which to give the sack!
Lay of the Day – Race 4 #11 Nechita ($3.70)
Nechita races for just the fourth time in the $500,000 Group 1 Coolmore Stud Stakes (1200m) today and hasn’t been seen since her sixth in the Golden Rose back in mid-September. She’s a Group 3 winner that runs well fresh but have big doubts over her $3.70 favourtism. Great value in a couple of better credentialed runners that have been in flying form this time in including our 2012 Coolmore Stud Stakes tip – #9 Snitzerland who has eased out to a very juicy $4.40 to win her fifth on the trot.
In The Big One – Race 6 #1 It’s A Dundeel ($2.90)
The $1.5 million Group 1 AAMI Victoria Derby (2500m) is set to steal the show today at 3:00pm (AEST) and while there are a few very talented three-year-olds in the mix, we think the favourite #1 It’s A Dundeel ($2.90) is going to be very hard to beat. They were beaten last week and are looking to atone, will be better over the 2500m and are definite class. History and form is in their favour and we are tipping them to bounce back here today.
Best Roughie Of The Day – Race 6 #13 Our Desert Warrior ($21)
While we don’t fancy this lightly-raced Gai Waterhouse-trained colt to take out the Derby in a major boilover, if you’re looking for real value to add into your Victoria Derby exotics and trifecta selection then this son of Desert King could be it. They have just their fourth career start but ran a nice fourth in the Geelong Classic and should get this distance better than some of their rivals. Might be one of the ones we should listen to Waterhouse’s hype on.
Better Than Bank Interest – Race 5 #7 Ocean Park ($1.60)
There is a genuine superstar topping the markets for today’s $1 million Group 1 Mackinnon Stakes (2000m) with the Dubai-bound Ocean Park. This flying Kiwi hasn’t put a hoof forward all season winning an incredible four straight Group 1 races and looking to make it five today. They were in sensational style seven days ago winning Australasia’s weight-for-age championship the Cox Plate and they should have an easier time in a smaller field over the same distance at a more suitable track today.
In A Tight Market – Race 3 #1 Dear Demi ($3.20)
Two Crown Oaks-bound fillies are battling for favouritism in the markets for today’s $300,000 Group 2 Wakeful Stakes (2000m) with Zydeco the firming $2.40 favourite and Dear Demi at $3.20. And for this one we are tipping the longer priced of the two with the Clarry Conners-trained Dear Demi to beat Zydeco home again when the pair came from behind to run two-three in the Thousand Guineas. Dear Demi has the Group 1 racing experience and is going to relish the distance while Zydeco will be at her best on Thursday in the Oaks.
To place any of our Victoria Derby Day best bets, or lock in your own selections, at the guaranteed best prices head along to bookmaker.com.au – home of the famous $400!
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