She may not have won a race for over 12 months but trainer Grahame Begg believes Secret Admirer is bang on to break the drought when she takes on a field of quality mares in the Myer Classic 2012, but can she stage an upset in the Victoria Derby Day feature?
Set to run as Flemington Race 7 at 3:45pm (AEST) the $500,000 Group 1 Myer Classic (1600m) is shaping up as an intriguing edition this year with 13 smart mares, five of which are under $10 in the current bookmaker.com.au markets, set to face off.
Myer Classic odds are led by last-start Tristarc Stakes winner Streama ($3) but at $7 Secret Admirer is the second fancy and could represent nice value in the Melbourne Cup Carnival feature.
So can the daughter of Dubawi bounce back from her 11th in the Caulfield Cup and thrive as she steps back in distance and goes back to a mares-only race on Saturday?
Begg believes so having opted for the Myer Classic over the $1 million Group 1 Mackinnon Stakes (2000m) on Saturday saying that the appearance of Cox Plate winner Ocean Park in the latter was a major deciding factor.
“I put her in both races but in the Mackinnon (she) would have to take on a colt (Ocean Park) that flogged them in the Cox Plate last week if you take away the three-year-olds,” Begg said.
“We can take on the mares and I think she has enough zip in her legs for the mile.
“We have been very happy with how she came through that run (in the Caulfield Cup), and the way she worked on Tuesday I think she will be very competitive at a mile against mares.
“It is her best trip, and all she needs is a bit of pace and she will be there at the end.”
So is Begg right? Or will it be the punters begging for a refund come Derby Day?
#2 Secret Admirer – Horse Form
- Barrier: 2
- Jockey: James McDonald
- Trainer: Grahame Begg
- Owners: Milburn Creek Thoroughbred Stud
- Age: 5YO
- Gender: Mare
- Breeding: by Dubawi (IRE) out of Secret Savings (USA) mare Secret Illusion (AUS)
- Career: 21-3-5-7
- Win: 14.29%
- Place: 71.43%
- Last 6: x22350
- Prize Money: $1,201,530
- Track: 1-0-0-1
- Distance: 7-2-1-2
- Current 2012 Myer Classic Odds: $7
Why Secret Admirer Can Win the Myer Classic 2012
- May have been unplaced (11th of 18) last start in the Caulfield Cup but she will relish the drop back in class and distance here
- Cup was over 2400m – she gets back to her pet distance of a mile here
- Good mile record (7-2-1-2) – one of the best in this field
- Cup was open company – this is mares-only and while both races hold Group 1 status the Myer is obviously an easier assignment than the $2.65 million Caulfield Cup
- Drawn ideally in barrier two with top New Zealand jockey James McDonald, who has previous race experience on her, riding
- Favourite meanwhile is drawn wider in barrier nine so Secret Admirer should get a nicer run
- Is a Group 1 winner over the 1600m having taken out last year’s Epsom Handicap in Sydney and the 2010 Flight Stakes
- Plenty of experience at the top level with 11 Group 1 runs which have produced two wins and six other top three placings
- Has had just one run at Flemington but ran a very competitive third to Albert The Fat over the mile in the Emirates Stakes last November
- Is one of just three horses in the field prepared by a former Myer Classic winning trainer (Grahame Begg – Bonanova 1998)
Why Secret Admirer Will be Beaten in the 2012 Myer Classic
- Did the Caulfield Cup over the mile and a half take too much out of her?
- It has been a long time between drinks and while she has been consistent in finishing in the money, has she forgotten how to win?
- Could represent a much better Place bet as her winning strike rate (14.29%) is dismal compared to her 71.43% place rate
- Has to beat Tristarc Stakes winner #1 Streama ($3)
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