Murwillumbah trainer Matthew Dunn is looking...
This Saturday the feature Flemington race is the Victoria Derby 2012 for the three-year-olds and having gone over the field and form on this Melbourne Cup Carnival classic below is the Races.com.au’s insider Victoria Derby betting tips and preview.
Set to run as Flemington Race 6 at 3:00pm (AEST) as the third of four Group 1 features on Saturday, the $1.5 million AAMI Victoria Derby (2500m) boasts a 16-horse field full of genuine chances including the easing $2.80 favourite It’s A Dundeel.
The most consistent horse in the race and the only proven Group 1 winner Murray Baker’s New Zealand visitor may have been beaten last time out but they get another 500m to run down anything in front of them here and the bookies are taking no chances.
Three of their rivals are then all at $7 to score a Derby upset with the ideally-drawn Honorius in gate two, the favourite’s last-start conqueror Super Cool who won the MV Vase in fine style, and last-start Norman Robinson Stakes champ Hvasstan.
This is what the Victoria Derby betting markets at bookmaker.com.au say but does our trifecta tip come from this top four?
Earlier in the week the expert form analysts published an exclusive Victoria Derby Form Guide 2012 & Betting Preview and based on the facts and stats revealed there our tips for the big one this weekend are as follows.
#1 It’s A Dundeel ($2.80)
- Deserved favourite
- Regular jockey James McDonald on again
- On the same path as Baker’s 2010 Victoria Derby winner Lion Tamer
- Kiwis loving this race in recent years, out to become the fourth Derby winner on the trot prepared by a New Zealand trainer
- Distance should be no problems as their pedigree being out of a Zebeel mare says they can get it
- Group 1 winner two back in Sydney
- Won the Gloaming Stakes as well – both Sangster (2011) and Lion Tamer (2010) having run in the Gloaming and Spring Champion Stakes before their respective Derby victories
- Awesome Win Rate (83.33%) better than anything else in the field
- Can reel off great sectionals
- Gets more distance to turn the tables on Super Cool should they find themselves behind in the final few hundred
- 6 of the past 20 Derby winners jumped as the favourite
- 7of the 8 favourites to win since 1982 all had their lead-up run seven days earlier on Cox Plate Day
#4 Super Cool ($7)
- Is a market mover and with good reason
- Beat It’s A Dundeel fair and square in the Vase seven days ago in a really good run
- Great late acceleration
- Trainer (Mark Kavanagh) is happy with how they pulled up after that and what they’ve done since
- Experience at Flemington last month and ran well over 1410m
- Breeding isn’t as a stayer but has learned to relax over their race and come home hard at the end
- Michael Rodd has ridden a Derby winner to victory before and is aboard this horse for the fifth time straight
- Vase is a great Derby guide in recent years producing more winners of the Group 1 than any other lead-up since 1986
- Great Win Rate (40%)
#5 Hvasstan ($7)
- Comes off a Norman Robinson Stakes win which has produced many a Derby winner over the years including Sangster 12 months ago
- Should have won that by more, it was a gritty effort and they will be better if they get a clear run in this
- Ran a good second in a black-type at this track from a wide gate two back
- Glen Boss rides again
- 50% Win Rate is impressive and 83.33% place rate says it all
Roughies We Like
#7 Escado ($26)
- Needs to get the distance which is a bit of a query but if they do they are a top 3 chance
- Ran a nice third in the Geelong Classic last start – how that form stacks up will be evident here
- Geelong Classic was run over 2200m so their stepping up to 2500m looks easier than most that are going from 2000m to 2500m
#13 Our Desert Warrior ($26)
- Gai Waterhouse is confident (but isn’t she always?)
- Come off a Geelong Classic fourth with improvement to come
- Front-runner that will look to outstay the favourite in the straight if they can get ahead early
Whether you are backing or sacking our Victoria Derby betting picks make sure you don’t settle for inferior spring odds by betting online with the country’s No. 1 sportsbook – bookmaker.com.au.
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