Murwillumbah trainer Matthew Dunn is looking...
Today Moonee Valley Racecourse will come to life for Cox Plate Day 2012 and while the big one on the card doesn’t jump until Race 8 with the $3 million Group 1 Cox Plate (2040m) stealing the show at 5:15pm (AEST) there’s plenty of action to enjoy and value to be had over the entire program.
To help our readers clean out the bookies and get the most bang for their betting buck today below we have our Best Cox Plate Day Bets – who you should be on and when we think the bookies are wrong.
Lay of the Day – Race 8 # 12 Pierro ($5)
The 2012 Cox Plate is an intriguing affair this year and while they are easing, right out from $4.20 to $5 in the markets at bookmaker.com.au, Gai Waterhouse’s Lonhro colt Pierro still sits near the top of the Cox Plate odds.
They are now on the second line of betting with Green Moon the new $4.60 favourite, but we are still saying lay Pierro in case the money comes in for them and then firm into favouritism again.
While they are a classy three-year-old they are just that, a 3YO and history says that they are the wrong age to win this.
Yes Pierro has three Group 1 wins but they weren’t against an open WFA field, they haven’t run at the track and with only 4 of the 63 three-year-olds to run in a Cox Plate saluting, we’re afraid this looks like the graveyard for the favoured youngster like it was for Helmet last year.
In The Big One – Race 8 #9 Ocean Park ($6)
So if not Pierro, which horse are we tipping to take out the $3 million classic this afternoon?
While statistically Pierro is the wrong age, historically Ocean Park is the perfect age for a Cox Plate win.
They are sneaking right into this betting picture too now into $6 occupying the third line in the markets.
The four-year-old Kiwi is undefeated this time in with a trio of Group 1 triumphs, most recently in the Caulfield Stakes which has been a good guide to the Cox Plate in recent years.
They have the form, the draw (9), the jockey (Glen Boss), the versatility, the class and the ability. Get on them before they firm further.
Best Place Bet – Race 8 #1 Shoot Out ($18)
At $18 to win Shoot Out is going to add some juicy value to the winning Cox Plate 2012 Trifecta if our place pick on this Chris Waller-trained champ rings true.
They have been steadily coming in on their opening price of $26 but still represent great value with a bit of skepticism there after their Epsom failure.
This horse has four Group 1 wins to their name and are third-up which is always when they run their best in a prep. In gate four with Bowman in the saddle under WFA – Shoot Out looks in a prime position to finish in the money.
Better Than Bank Interest – Race 5 #1 It’s A Dundeel ($1.22)
It really does like a done deal in today’s $220,000 Group 2 Mitchelton Wines Vase (2040m) with Murray Baker’s unbeaten Kiwi raider It’s A Dundeel set to steal the show.
While the Vase wasn’t always on the cards for this High Chaparral colt their shock victory over hot favourite Proisir in the Group 1 Spring Champion Stakes (2000m) should see them handle this lot with ease.
They are Victoria Derby bound next week and won’t be given a gut buster here but they should still do it easy winning it like a piece of trackwork before their Grand Final.
Okay so $1.22 isn’t an attractive price but as the heading says, it’s better than bank interest and worth popping a bulk bet on just to get some cash in the Cox Plate Day kitty.
Best Roughie of the Day – Race 9 #6 Pretty Pins ($12)
At $12 for the $150,000 Group 3 Trojan Hand Tools Tesio Stakes (1600m) this afternoon we think Pretty Pins represents excellent value in the last.
Markets are led by some in-form, Group performing mares including Star Of Giselle ($3.70), Toorak Handicap runner-up Spirit Song ($4) and Skyerush ($4.20) but if you want value John Thompson’s Pretty Pins is it.
This four-year-old may not have won a race since December last year in Brisbane, but expect her to be fitter third-up this time in.
She was three and a half off Star Of Giselle at Caulfield last start but getting up to the 2000m is going to suit and she’s been mighty unlucky a couple of times previously. Think she’s going to like Moonee Valley too.
In A Tight Market – Race 4 #7 Cavalry Rose ($3.20)
In the $150,000 Group 3 Telstra PhoneWords Red Anchor Stakes (1200m) today there are two horses battling for favouritism with narrow $3.20 favourite Cavalry Rose and market mover Essay Raider.
While the latter has promise they have only had two starts to date and Cavalry Rose is a Group winning filly with eight previous starts. She led all the way at Caulfield in a Group 3 two weeks back and while she’s new to the Valley, she is the rank horse in this and we’re sticking with her.
Remember when you’re ready to place your Cox Plate Day bets to get a better price by betting online with bookmaker.com.au – home of the exclusive ‘Pick Your Own Odds’ markets and the $400 bonus welcome bet offer!
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