2012 Cox Plate Tips & Exotic Betting Selections

October 26, 2012

2012 Cox Plate Tips & Exotic Betting Selections

The Cox Plate 2012 tips are what all punters are after this weekend with the weight-for-age classic shaping up as one of the most captivating and exposed editions of the $3 million feature in many years.

There are 14 gallopers in the Group 1 Sportingbet Cox Plate (2040m) field this year set to face off in Moonee Valley Race 8 at 5:15pm (AEST) and in the latest Cox Plate odds at bookmaker.com.au there are now five single figure fancies.

Ocean Park

Ocean Park is the Races.com.au tip to win the 2012 Cox Plate

Among them is the easing $4.60 favourite Pierro as well as two other Gai Waterhouse-trained runners with fellow three-year-old Proisir ($9.50) and experienced champion More Joyous ($8).

Rounding out the top fancies in the Cox Plate betting markets are then flying Kiwi raider Ocean Park ($6.50) out for their fourth Group 1 victory on the trot and $4.60 second favourite Green Moon who was last seen winning the Turnbull Stakes at Flemington.

Cox Plate 2012 In Numbers

  • 14 horses in the field
  • 5 at single figures to win
  • 2 mares looking to go back-to-back for the females
  • 3 three-year-olds out to become just the fifth of their age to win in the race’s history
  • 3 Gai Waterhouse-trained runners
  • 3 last start winners
  • 1 Kiwi raider
  • 2 four-year-olds

A case can be made both for and against every runner in the 2012 Cox Plate field which is just one of the reasons why this year’s Cox Plate winner is so tough to pick.

Originally all the hype was on autumn 2YO triple crown winner Pierro but after their shock loss in the Caulfield Guineas and the hoodoo of three-year-olds in the race they have drifted in the markets.

So can Pierro atone for their last start loss and salute for the Cox Plate punters?

Will another of Waterhouse’s hopefuls upset their stablemate and hand their trainer with her first Cox Plate victory?

Or will there be a total blow out for this year’s Cox Plate result with a double-figure outsider such four-time Group 1 winner Shoot Out ($19), last year’s third placegetter Rekindled Interest ($26) or star-in-the-making Ethiopia ($19).

Earlier in the week the expert team of form analysts at Races.com.au published their comprehensive Cox Plate 2012 Form Guide & Betting Analysis and based on what we discovered there, below we have our insider Cox Plate betting tips.

Cox Plate Winner

#9 Ocean Park ($6.50)

There’s a lot to like about this in-form New Zealander.

They come off three straight Group 1 victories, the last two of which were in Australia, they have only finished out of the money just once in 10 starts and when they did lose they gave it all all the way to the line.

And they’re not mug horses Ocean Park’s been beating either, take subsequent Caulfield Cup runner-up Alcopop (2nd in the Caulfield Stakes) for example.

Winning the Caulfield Stakes is the right lead-up too with the Caulfield Stakes – Cox Plate double having been completed 15 times previously.

Jockey Glen Boss, a dual Cox Plate winning hoop, has been singing this horse praises all week and we can see why.

They have the versatility needed in WFA at Moonee Valley, distance is right (3-1-2-0), already proven at WFA, unbeaten as a 4YO and this age have the hottest record in the Cox Plate of any other age group.

Runner-Up

#10 More Joyous ($8)

It takes a champion to win a Cox Plate and this mare is certainly that.

She has proven herself at Group 1 level eight times previously, including the Doncaster Mile during the autumn.

She’s the Cox Plate betting market mover with the punters smashing her over the past 24 hours after initially being a bit shy of her out wide in gate 11 (that Waterhouse decision waiting to prove itself the right one).

She’ll get space from that gate and you can ignore that Toorak failure, the weight was too much.

Weight-for-age will suit her better and her winning strike rate (72.41%) shows she knows how to win and beat these types.

Third Place

#4 Green Moon ($4.60)

This Robert Hickmott-trained import cannot be ignored. While they have just sat steady in the markets without a price fluctuation either way there’s obviously enough form saying that the deserve second spot in the odds.

Was it winning Cox Plate performance when they took out the Turnbull at the start of the month? We’re not sure. But it was a classy run none the less, as was their close second to $51 Cox Plate roughie Happy Trails in the Dato at this track over the mile.

Distance is fine (not like with some of the other fancies), he’s been prepared for this and run all the right races in the lead-up.

Their place rate is good too and from barrier five with last year’s winning hoop Craig Williams opting to ride them over the 3YO favourite they certainly have claims.

Roughie To Try

#1 Shoot Out ($19)

Still at a juicy price but this High Chaparral six-year-old, a four time Group 1 winner, has been well backed in from $26 earlier in the week.

Punters were a little shy at first as they come off a disappointing seventh in the Epsom, but expect huge improvement third-up which is when they always run their best of a prep.

Chris Waller’s first ever Cox Plate runner ran a smashing second behind More Joyous in the Doncaster, and while they haven’t run in Melbourne for a year don’t discount them.

There were fourth in the 2010 Cox Plate behind star So You Think and they were being prepared for the Melbourne Cup over two miles then.

This time the Cox Plate has been the target all along.

Whether you are backing or sacking our Cox Plate tips and exotic selections you’ll find the markets and odds you’re after online at bookmaker.com.au.

Even better, if you’ve got the Cox Plate winner picked out, lock them in at a better price than currently offered by selecting the margin by which you think they will win by in bookmaker.com.au’s exclusive Pick Your Own Odds markets.

 

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