Can Ethiopia Score Upset 2012 Cox Plate Result?

They are a Group 1 winner and the right age statistically speaking but still at double figures so is the Pat Carey-trained Ethiopia worth a look in for the Cox Plate 2012 win?


Australian Derby winner Ethiopia is a $26 roughie for the 2012 Cox Plate this Saturday

One of two four-year-olds in the $3 million Group 1 Cox Plate (2040m) field this Saturday at Moonee Valley, Helenus gelding Ethiopia is out for their first win since taking out the Australian Derby over the mile and a half in Sydney during the autumn.

That has been there only win from six starts to date, the galloper failing to place in their two runs this time in.

Last start Ethiopia finished a credible sixth when beaten three and a half lengths behind Cox Plate fancy Green Moon in the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) and so will need to improve if they are to get closer in the Cox Plate finishing order.

Paying a juicy $26 in the Cox Plate odds at Ethiopia certainly has some class so below we take a look at the evidence for and against them scoring an upset in the Cox Plate this weekend.

#8 Ethiopia – Horse Facts

  • Jockey: Rhys McLeod
  • Trainer: Pat Carey
  • Owners: Wyadup Valley Farm
  • Age: 4YO
  • Gender: Gelding
  • Breeding: by Helenus (UAS) from Spectrum (IRE) mare Shona (AUS)
  • Career: 6-1-1-2
  • Win: 16.67%
  • Place: 66.67%
  • Last 6: 321×76
  • Prize Money: $1,001,050
  • Track: 2-0-1-0
  • Distance: 2-0-1-0
  • Current 2012 Cox Plate Odds: $26

Evidence For Ethiopia in the Cox Plate 2012

  • Is the right age as 4YO’s have won more Cox Plates than any other age group – 26 in total
  • 100 percent Aussie owned, trained and bred making them one of the only genuine local hopes in the Cox Plate 2012
  • Is a Group 1 winner having taken out this year’s Australian Derby
  • Ran a close second over this track and distance in the Group 2 Alister Clark Stakes back in March
  • Carried 56.5kg when beaten by Green Moon (55.5kg) in the Turnbull but gets the weight relieve on Saturday to carry 57.5kg to Green Moon’s 59kg

Evidence Against Ethiopia in the 2012 Cox Plate

  • Neither their trainer (Pat Carey) or jockey (Rhys McLeod) have Cox Plate experience
  • Has only won one of their six career starts to date giving them one of the worst Win Rates of the field (16.67%)
  • Their Group 1 win was as a 3YO against their own kind – not the same as a WFA Cox Plate
  • Yet to win at the track or distance
  • Was beaten 3.5 lengths by Cox Plate second favourite Green Moon ($4.60) last time out in the Turnbull so needs to do some huge improving

Read enough to suggest Ethiopia could make a nice value addition to your Cox Plate exotic bets this weekend?

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