Cox Plate 2012 Form Guide & Betting Analysis

This Saturday Australasia’s weight-for-age championship, the 2012 Cox Plate, will light up Moonee Valley Racecourse and with an intriguing field featuring three 3YO’s below we have our exclusive Cox Plate form guide analysis and betting preview to help you uncover the value in the market.

Ocean Park

Ocean Park shoots for their fourth Group 1 win on the trot in the Cox Plate 2012

Due to run as Moonee Valley Race 8 at 5:15pm (AEST), the $3 million Group 1 Sportingbet Cox Plate (2040m) this year has drawn a full field of 14 final acceptors.

Among them is a trio of eager three-year-olds keen to become just the fifth horse of their age to beat home their older rivals and win the Cox Plate.

In fact this year’s Cox Plate betting favourite is one of these youngsters with the Gai Waterhouse-trained Pierro paying $4 through bookmaker.com.au to score their ninth win from 10 starts.

But can Pierro atone for their first career loss when gunned down by fellow Cox Plate hopeful All Too Hard ($10) in the Caulfield Guineas?

What about the two other single-figure fancies? Is Turnbull Stakes winner Green Moon ($4.60) a better bet? Or is it Kiwi raider Ocean Park ($5.50) who is out for their fourth straight Group 1 victory?

In a genuinely open field the team at Races.com.au have gone over the 2012 Cox Plate field, form guide, betting history and stats and complied the below, must-know Cox Plate Facts.

2012 Cox Plate Form Facts & Betting Stats

  • Last year’s Cox Plate winner Pinker Pinker came off a second in the Epsom Handicap and was ridden by Craig Williams from barrier 11 (of 14)
  • Only one Cox Plate hope ran in this year’s Epsom with George Main Stakes winner #1 Shoot Out (7th) who will become just the second horse in history joining Kingston Town (1981 & 1982) to complete the George Main Stakes – Cox Plate double
  • Last year’s winning gate meanwhile belongs to #10 More Joyous ($13) with trainer Gai Waterhouse copping some slack from owner John Singleton for choosing that barrier when having the pick of the bunch
  • Jockey Craig Williams will this year vie for back-to-back wins riding #4 Green Moon ($4.60) who he opted to ride over the favourite #12 Pierro ($4)
  • Other horses to be ridden by a former Cox Plate winning jockey this year are then #6 Linton (Steven Arnold), #11 Southern Speed (Luke Nolen), #2 Sincero (Michael Rodd), #9 Ocean Park (Glen Boss) and #13 All Too Hard (Chris Munce)
  • Pinker Pinker was one of six females to win a cumulative nine Cox Plates; there are two mares in contention this year with #10 More Joyous ($13) and #11 Southern Speed ($31)
  • Prior to Pinker Pinker last year the past 10 Cox Plate winners all started from barriers 3 – 7 – the most successful gate in the past decade also being seven with three wins
  • #12 Pierro meanwhile has drawn barrier 7 which is the most successful Cox Plate barrier in history producing 11 winners, the most recent of which was So You Think (2009)
  • Adding to that was the fact So You Think won that year as a three-year-old, Pierro’s current age – they would also go on to win in 2010 at four
  • #12 Pierro is also one of three three-year-olds in this year’s Cox Plate along with #13 All Too Hard ($10) who beat them home in the Caulfield Guineas last start, and another Waterhouse-trained runner in #14 Proisir ($9)
  • 3YO’s however have a poor record with 62 three-year-olds having contested the Cox Plate over the years but only 4 being successful and 3YO favourites have only been successful three times from 21 attempts
  • Two of those were in recent years however with Savabeel (2004) and So You Think (2009)
  • As for Caulfield Guineas winner #13 All Too Hard – Only one of the past 17 Caulfield Guineas winners to contest the Cox Plate have been successful
  • The last 3YO to win as favourite was Red Anchor (8/11 in 1984) who was also the last of only four Caulfield Guineas winners to go on and win the Cox Plate in history
  • 4YO’s have the best record in the Cox Plate with 26 wins; this year there are only two 4YO’s with #9 Ocean Park ($5.50) and #8 Ethiopia ($26)
  • The only horse prepared by a former Cox Plate winning trainer this year is then #13 All To Hard (John Hawkes who now trains in partnership with sons Michael & Wayne); Hawkes’ Cox Plate winner was Octagonal (1995) who was a 3YO like All Too Hard
  • Of the 10 non 3YO’s to win the Cox Plate in recent years seven have come through the Group 2 Memsie Stakes (1400m) held eight weeks before at Caulfield with: Sunline (2000), Northerly (2002), Makybe Diva (2005), Fields Of Omagh (2006), El Segundo (2007), Maldivian (2008) and So You Think (2010)
  • This year horses to come via this year’s Memsie Stakes are #2 Sincero (1st), #7 Happy Trails (2nd), #4 Green Moon (5th) and #5 Rekindled Interest (10th)
  • The next most successful Cox Plate lead-up race over the years has been the Group 2 Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes (1600m) which has produced six winners in the past 12 years, including five that also ran in the Memsie and three with Sunline, Makybe Diva and El Segundo who also went onto the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) at Flemington
  • This makes the Memsie-Dato-Turnbull path the most successful for Cox Plate winners and three horses have contested all three races this year with #4 Green Moon ($4.60), #5 Rekindled Interest ($21) and #7 Happy Trails ($41)
  • #4 Green Moon won the Turnbull last time out and is out to become the sixth horse in history to complete the Turnbull Stakes – Cox Plate double
  • The most successful double whose second leg is the Cox Plate over the years is the Underwood Stakes – Cox Plate double which has been completed 15 times
  • This year’s Underwood Stakes winner is out to become the 16th with #9 Ocean Park ($5.50)
  • Adding to #9 Ocean Park’s form line is the fact that the next most successful double is the Caulfield Stakes – Cox Plate and the young Kiwi also won the Group 1 Caulfield Stakes this year
  • Five horses have completed the Underwood Stakes – Caulfield Stakes – Cox Plate triple with Ajax (1938), Bonecrusher (1986), Almaarad (1989), Northerly (2001) and So You Think (2010)
  • No horse however has won four consecutive Group 1 wins including the Cox Plate since the formalisation of Group 1 racing in 1979
  • #12 Pierro boasts the highest Win Rate of the field with 88.89% followed by their two stablemates #14 Proisir (75%) and #10 More Joyous (72.41%)
  • #12 Pierro and #14 Proisir ($9) also have the best Place Percentage with 100% followed by #9 Ocean Park ($5.50) with 90.00%
  • There are three last start winners in the race with #4 Green Moon (Group 1 Turnbull Stakes, 2000m, Flemington, 06/10/2012), #9 Ocean Park (Group 1 Caulfield Stakes, 2000m, Caulfield, 13/10/2012) and #13 All Too Hard (Group 1 Caulfield Guineas, 1600m, Caulfield, 13/10/2012)

Stay tuned to Races.com.au for our insider Cox Plate tips to be published later in the week.

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2012 Cox Plate Field & Form Guide

Moonee Valley Race 8 – 5:15pm (AEST) – 27/10/2012

# Horse Trainer Jockey Br. Wgt. AS Days API Career Win% Place% Last 6
1. SHOOT OUT C J Waller Hugh Bowman 4 59 6yoG 21 $92,063 31: 9 5 5 29.03% 61.29% 132×17
2. SINCERO S Farley Michael Rodd 12 59 5yoG 14 $69,260 25: 12 1 1 48.00% 56.00% 54×153
3. GLASS HARMONIUM M D Moroney James Mc Donald 2 59 7yoH 14 $51,815 26: 5 5 2 19.23% 46.15% x47x49
4. GREEN MOON Robert Hickmott Craig Williams 5 59 6yoH 21 $60,283 18: 6 3 0 33.33% 50.00% x1x521
5. REKINDLED INTEREST J T Conlan Dwayne Dunn 1 59 5yoG 21 $47,458 19: 3 2 3 15.79% 42.11% 25×030
6. LINTON J D Sadler Steven Arnold 14 59 6yoG 21 $47,042 19: 4 2 4 21.05% 52.63% 0x1x40
7. HAPPY TRAILS Paul Beshara Kerrin Mc Evoy 8 59 5yoG 21 $22,383 27: 4 6 5 14.81% 55.56% 6×1215
8. ETHIOPIA P G Carey Rhys Mc Leod 6 57.5 4yoG 21 $166,842 6: 1 1 2 16.67% 66.67% 321×76
9. OCEAN PARK G T Hennessy Glen Boss 9 57.5 4yoH 14 $75,213 10: 6 3 0 60.00% 90.00% 82×111
10. MORE JOYOUS Ms G Waterhouse Nash Rawiller 11 57 6yoM 14 $155,533 29: 21 0 2 72.41% 79.31% 11×114
11. SOUTHERN SPEED L Macdonald and A Gluyas Luke Nolen 13 57 5yoM 21 $112,927 24: 7 4 2 29.17% 54.17% x31140
12. PIERRO Ms G Waterhouse Corey Brown 7 49.5 3yoC 14 $370,550 9: 8 1 0 88.89% 100.00% 11×112
13. ALL TOO HARD “M, W and J Hawkes Chris Munce 3 49.5 3yoC 14 $132,400 8: 4 1 1 50.00% 75.00% 2×3541
14. PROISIR Ms G Waterhouse Craig Newitt 10 49.5 3yoC 21 $67,408 4: 3 1 0 75.00% 100.00% 1112

*Form Guide Credit – Ladbrokes.com.au

*All odds quoted are Fixed Win from bookmaker.com.au and subject to change

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