Thousand Guineas Form Guide 2012 & Betting Preview

This Wednesday Caulfield Racecourse will come to life ahead of Saturday’s Caulfield Cup Day with the three-year-old fillies taking centre stage in the 2012 Thousand Guineas, the Races.com.au team’s exclusive form guide and betting analysis for which can be found below.

Maybe Discreet

Maybe Discreet is undefeated over teh mile with two wins heading into Wednesday's Thousand Guineas 2012

The $500,000 Group 1 Schweppes Thousand Guineas (1600m) is due to run as Caulfield Race 6 at 3:40pm (AEST) with a full field to face off.

Thousand Guineas 2012 betting markets at bookmaker.com.au are led by firming $4.40 favourite Molto Bene, the dual stakes winning filly from Morphettville to be ridden by Craig Williams from barrier four.

Her main dangers are perceived to be fellow Adelaide raider Maybe Discreet ($7.50) coming off a narrow win in the Group 2 Edward Manifold Stakes (1610m) at Flemington, Greg Eurell’s Red Ransom filly Love For Ransom ($7.50) and three-quarter sister to last year’s Thousand Guineas winner Atlantic Jewel Commanding Jewel ($8) who are the other single figure fancies in the Thousand Guineas odds.

This is what the current betting markets say but what about the Thousand Guineas form guide and betting history?

Having gone over the Thousand Guineas field, form guide and statistics we’ve come up with the below must know facts to see if there is value backing a longer priced hopeful this Wednesday or if the favourites are the ones you should lock in at bookmaker.com.au.

2012 Thousand Guineas Form Facts & Betting Stats

  • Last year’s Thousand Guineas winner Atlantic Jewel won the race at just her fourth start coming off three wins and was ridden by Michael Rodd from barrier four (of 11)
  • Two fillies will be having their fourth career start in the Thousand Guineas this year with #11 Love For Ransom (1×19) and #15 Zydeco (615)
  • #15 Zydeco ($15) will also be ridden by last year’s winning jockey Rodd but has a wide barrier 14 (into 13) draw
  • Last year’s winning barrier (4) was originally drawn by #10 Big Chill but with the early scratching of #6 Jade Marauder the gate will now belong to the favourite #9 Molto Bene ($4.40)
  • Recent history is in favour of #9 Molto Bene too as three of the four favourites have saluted for the punters
  • The barrier to produce the most Caulfield Guineas winners with four – Shizu (1999), Richfield Lady (1991), Riverina Charm (1988) and Yosei (2010) – meanwhile is barrier 5 which #13 Dazzler ($18) is now due to jump from
  • Wide gates however have been no hindrance with seven of the past 21 Thousand Guineas winners drawing double-digits
  • There are also three last-start winners in the mix with #3 Lady Of Harrods (Group 3, Thousand Guineas Prelude, 1400m, Caulfield, 22/09/2012), #4 Maybe Discreet (Group 2, Edward Manifold Stakes, 1610m, Flemington, 06/10/2012) and #14 Balaclava Lady (F 3YO Open Hcp, 1400m, Caulfield, 30/09/2012)
  • #4 Maybe Discreet ($7.50) is advantaged having won the Edward Manifold Stakes, a race that since 2002 has produced nine Thousand Guineas placegetters with three taking out the double with Special Harmony (2003), Alinghi (20040 and Gallica (2008)
  • #11 Love For Ransom ($7.50) boasts the highest Win Rate of the field with 66.76%
  • There are then six fillies with a 50% Winning Strike Rate with #2 Longport ($10), #3 Lady Of Harrods ($11), #4 Maybe Discreet ($7.50), #8 Commanding Jewel ($8), #9 Molto Bene ($4.40) and #16 La Zuma ($71)
  • #8 Commanding Jewel ($8) has the best Place Percentage yet to finish out of the money (100%) followed by #2 Longport (83.33%), #4 Maybe Discreet (83.33%) and #12 Stella Lante (83.33%)
  • Fillies with previous good form over the 1600m are #4 Maybe Discreet (2-2-0-0), #1 Dear Demi (3-1-1-1), #15 Zydeco (2-1-0-0), #2 Longport (1-0-1-0), #5 Members Joy (1-0-1-0) and #8 Commanding Jewel (1-0-0-1)
  • The only fillies to finish top three at Caulfield Racecourse are #3 Lady Of Harrods (4-3-0-0), #7 Mama’s Choice (2-1-0-0), #14 Balaclava Lady (1-1-0-0), #8 Commanding Jewel (1-0-1-0), #9 Molto Bene (1-0-0-1), #10 Big Chill (2-0-0-1) and #5 Members Joy (5-0-1-0)

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2012 Thousand Guineas Field & Form Guide

Caulfield Race 6 – 3:40pm – 17/10/2012

# Horse Trainer Jockey Br. Wgt. AS Days API Career Win% Place% Last 6
1. DEAR DEMI C E Conners Jimmy Cassidy 18 55.5 3yoF 11 $35,200 12: 3 2 3 25.00% 66.67% 2×3143
2. LONGPORT John Thompson Craig Newitt 12 55.5 3yoF 11 $48,622 6: 3 2 0 50.00% 83.33% x11912
3. LADY OF HARRODS R F Cameron Jamie Mott 3 55.5 3yoF 25 $38,825 6: 3 0 0 50.00% 50.00% 61×011
4. MAYBE DISCREET P Stokes Luke Nolen 9 55.5 3yoF 11 $43,325 6: 3 2 0 50.00% 83.33% x15211
5. MEMBERS JOY R W Smerdon Nicholas Hall 11 55.5 3yoF 11 $22,834 8: 2 2 0 25.00% 50.00% 9×0152
6. JADE MARAUDER C J Waller SCRATCHED 1 55.5 3yoF 11 $22,422 9: 2 1 3 22.22% 66.67% 0x5338
7. MAMA’S CHOICE D A Hayes Dwayne Dunn 16 55.5 3yoF 18 $17,300 6: 1 0 1 16.67% 33.33% 70×344
8. COMMANDING JEWEL L J Corstens Damien Oliver 8 55.5 3yoF 11 $25,950 4: 2 1 1 50.00% 100.00% 1123
9. MOLTO BENE Will Clarken Craig Williams 5 55.5 3yoF 25 $24,150 4: 2 0 1 50.00% 75.00% 11×53
10. BIG CHILL M Ellerton and S Zahra Hugh Bowman 4 55.5 3yoF 17 $15,012 7: 2 0 1 28.57% 42.86% 154×83
11. LOVE FOR RANSOM G Eurell Glen Boss 15 55.5 3yoF 17 $31,774 3: 2 0 0 66.67% 66.67% 1×19
12. STELLA LANTE John Hyam Vlad Duric 2 55.5 3yoF 17 $13,510 6: 1 2 2 16.67% 83.33% 33×228
13. DAZZLER Peter Snowden James Winks 6 55.5 3yoF 11 $10,985 5: 2 0 0 40.00% 40.00% 11×078
14. BALACLAVA LADY N A Blackiston Michael Walker 10 55.5 3yoF 17 $19,600 4: 1 1 1 25.00% 75.00% 2×531
15. ZYDECO Anthony Freedman Michael Rodd 14 55.5 3yoF 11 $5,438 3: 1 0 0 33.33% 33.33% 615
16. LA ZUMA M D Moroney Luke Currie 17 55.5 3yoF 17 $6,250 2: 1 0 0 50.00% 50.00% 15
17. MEDITRINA S P Nichols Steven King 7 55.5 3yoF 27 $2,463 4: 0 0 2 0.00% 50.00% 65×33
18. EXCITUS K M Keys Not Notified 13 55.5 3yoF 13 $2,816 4: 0 2 0 0.00% 50.00% 6×622

*Form Guide Credit – Ladbrokes.com.au

*All odds quoted are Fixed Win from bookmaker.com.au and subject to change