Murwillumbah trainer Matthew Dunn is looking...
The latest Group 1 feature of the Melbourne Spring Racing Carnival will take place at the famous Flemington Racecourse this Saturday and to help our readers back the Turnbull Stakes 2012 winner below we have our exclusive form guide and betting preview on the classic.
Due to jump at 4:20pm as Flemington Race 7, the $500,000 Group 1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) field features 16 starters and a single emergency with the bookmaker.com.au betting markets led by Caulfield Cup 2012-bound Green Moon ($4.80).
The 2012 Turnbull Stakes however is shaping up as one of the more intriguing editions of the race in recent years with other livewire chances including Mark Kavanagh’s comeback galloper December Draw ($6), last year’s Caulfield Cup winner Southern Speed ($7), the progressive Peter Moody-trained import Voila Ici ($8) who is the early market mover and the now John Sadler-trained local Linton ($8).
But if you are sticking with the single figure chances which of these should your money be on in the Turnbull Stakes betting markets?
And if it is an upset Turnbull Stakes result you’re tipping which of the double figure chances from the likes of Cox Plate minor placegetter Rekindled Interest ($12) and even SA Derby winner Zabeelionaire ($26) are in with a shot?
The expert team of tipsters at Races.com.au have done the hard work for you this Turnbull Stakes Day going over the field, form guide and betting statistics to come up with the below must know facts to see you beating the bookies on Saturday.
2012 Turnbull Stakes Form Facts & Betting Stats
- Last year’s Turnbull Stakes winner December Draw came off a win in the Naturalism Stakes, jumped from barrier seven (of 12) and was ridden by Michael Rodd
- This year #3 December Draw ($6) is back to defend their title coming off a third in the Underwood Stakes, set to jump from barrier 3 with Rodd retaining the ride
- Other horses ridden by a previous Turnbull winning jockey this year are then #17e Seville (Nicholas Hall) and #5 Rekindled Interest (Damien Oliver)
- There have been only two previous dual Turnbull Stakes winners in history with Comic Court (1949-50) and Vo Rogue (1987-88) that December Draw will look to join this year
- Last year’s winning barrier (7) was drawn by #14 Sanagas ($101) but if first emergency #17 Seville (2) comes out it will be #10 Linton ($8) jumping from gate seven
- December Draw’s win from gate seven last spring saw him become the sixth straight winner to jump from a single-digit gate in the Turnbull
- Along with #3 December Draw (Mark Kavanagh) other horses prepared by a former Turnbull Stakes winning trainer this year are #14 Sanagas (Bart Cummings), #2 Niwot (John Hawkes), #11 Green Moon ($4.80) and #17e Seville ($41) from the Robert Hickmott stables, and the John Saddler-trained duo of #1 Winchester ($61) and #10 Linton ($8)
- The best finishing of this year’s Naturalism Stakes runners to back up in the Turnbull meanwhile is first emergency #17 Seville (5th)
- #14 Sanagas ($101) boasts the highest Win Rate of the field with 53.85% followed by #16 Zurella (50.00%) and #15 Sneak A Peek (46.15%)
- The most consistent Place Percentage is then shared between #4 Ethiopia ($18) and #9 Voila Ici ($8) with 80.00%
- There is just one last start winner engaged in this year’s Turnbull with #6 Happy Trails ($10) coming off a third-up victory over Green Moon in the Group 2 Dato’ Tan Chin Nam Stakes (1600m) at Moonee Valley on September 15
- Only one favourite has won the Turnbull Stakes since it gained Group 1 status back in 2006 with December Draw ($2.15) last year
- This year the favourite is #11 Green Moon ($4.80) – one punters may want to back with care based on the historical data
- The Underwood Stakes has served as an excellent Turnbull guide producing three of the past six winners and nine in the past 16 years – seven of which also started in the Makybe Diva Stakes
- Horses coming via the Makybe Diva and the Underwood this year are #3 December Draw (8th and 3rd), #8 Southern Speed (1st and 4th) and #7 Zabeelionaire (9th and 7th)
- At Flemington horses with the best record are #3 December Draw (5-4-0-0), #12 Moudre (6-3-0-1), #2 Niwot (7-3-1-0), #8 Southern Speed (6-2-1-0), #11 Green Moon (4-1-1-0) and #16 Zurella (1-1-0-0)
- Horses with good form over the 2000-metres are then #1 Winchester (4-3-1-0), #11 Green Moon (4-3-1-0), #3 December Draw (11-5-1-1), #2 Niwot (6-2-1-0), #9 Voila Ici (9-3-4-2), #15 Sneak A Peek (2-1-1-0) and #7 Zabeelionaire (2-1-0-0)
- #3 December Draw (3-3-0-0) and #2 Niwot (1-1-0-0) are both undefeated over the Track & Distance
- Other horses to have run top three over the 2000m at Flemington previously are then #5 Rekindled Interest (2-0-0-1), #8 Southern Speed (3-0-1-0), #10 Linton (2-0-1-0) and #11 Green Moon (1-0-1-0)
Stay tuned for our insider Turnbull Stakes betting tips which will be published shortly, or if you already have your selections picked out head to bookmaker.com.au to get in on the Group 1 action this weekend.
Remember that if you are a first time depositing customer at bookmaker.com.au to quote the limited-time-only promo code BONUSBET during the easy two minute sign-up process to be instantly rewarded with your $400 bonus welcome bet.
2012 Turnbull Stakes Field & Form Guide
Flemington Race 7 – 4:20pm – 06/10/2012
|1.||WINCHESTER||J D Sadler||Jamie Mott||17||57.5||8yoH||14||$67,163||26: 6 6 3||23.08%||57.69%||2153×9|
|2.||NIWOT||“M, W and J Hawkes||Dwayne Dunn||13||57.5||8yoG||14||$39,428||30: 9 4 1||30.00%||46.67%||441×00|
|3.||DECEMBER DRAW||M A Kavanagh||Michael Rodd||3||57.5||7yoG||14||$24,471||25: 8 3 5||32.00%||64.00%||110×83|
|4.||ETHIOPIA||P G Carey||Rhys Mc Leod||4||56.5||4yoG||21||$198,210||5: 1 1 2||20.00%||80.00%||3321×7|
|5.||REKINDLED INTEREST||J T Conlan||Damien Oliver||10||56.5||5yoG||21||$50,094||18: 3 2 3||16.67%||44.44%||625×03|
|6.||HAPPY TRAILS||Paul Beshara||Ben Melham||1||56.5||5yoG||21||$22,763||26: 4 6 5||15.38%||57.69%||46×121|
|7.||ZABEELIONAIRE||L J Corstens||Craig Newitt||11||56.5||4yoH||14||$33,984||14: 3 1 0||21.43%||28.57%||116×97|
|8.||SOUTHERN SPEED||L Macdonald and A Gluyas||Glen Boss||15||55.5||5yoM||14||$117,837||23: 7 4 2||30.43%||56.52%||5×3114|
|9.||VOILA ICI||P G Moody||Vlad Duric||5||55.5||8yoH||14||$56,776||30: 13 6 5||43.33%||80.00%||343×62|
|10.||LINTON||J D Sadler||Steven Arnold||8||55.5||6yoG||21||$49,656||18: 4 2 4||22.22%||55.56%||60x1x4|
|11.||GREEN MOON||Robert Hickmott||Craig Williams||9||55.5||6yoH||21||$46,035||17: 5 3 0||29.41%||47.06%||0x1x52|
|12.||MOUDRE||C Maher||Mark Zahra||16||55.5||7yoG||28||$26,593||21: 7 4 3||33.33%||66.67%||x089x3|
|13.||MR CHARD||D R Lawson||Dean Holland||6||55.5||5yoH||21||$22,205||18: 3 2 1||16.67%||33.33%||0x6696|
|14.||SANAGAS||J B Cummings||Brad Rawiller||7||55.5||7yoG||14||$21,603||13: 7 1 0||53.85%||61.54%||116×00|
|15.||SNEAK A PEEK||P G Moody||Luke Nolen||12||55||5yoH||21||$21,981||13: 6 2 1||46.15%||69.23%||116×85|
|16.||ZURELLA||S F Ritchie||Chris Munce||14||52.5||4yoM||14||$28,284||10: 5 2 0||50.00%||70.00%||152×17|
|17.||SEVILLE||Robert Hickmott||Nicholas Hall||2||54.5||5yoH||14||$56,688||13: 1 5 1||7.69%||53.85%||x94x05|
*Form Guide Credit – Ladbrokes.com.au
*All odds quoted are fixed win from bookmaker.com.au and are subject to change
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