This Saturday punters and race fans are gearing up for the mouth-watering clash between the Gai Waterhouse-trained autumn triple crown winning youngster Pierro and Nathan Tinkler’s spruik colt All Too Hard in the 2012 The Run To The Rose, the Races.com.au team’s tips and form guide analysis for which is detailed below.
Due to jump as Rosehill Gardens Race 5 at 3:10pm the $125,000 Group 3 The Run To The Rose (1200m) field features six promising youngsters, the hot favourite for which is Golden Slipper hero Pierro.
Out to extend their unbeaten career record to seven wins on Saturday, the son of Lonhro was last seen completing the autumn two-year-old triple crown with a runaway win in the Group 1 Champagne Stakes over the Randwick mile on April 28.
Waterhouse is brimming with confidence her $2.9 million earner, who carries the 60kg topweight on Saturday, is ready to fire first-up despite his main spring aims not taking place until October with the Caulfield Guineas and Cox Plate riches waiting for him in Melbourne.
The bookies and punters seem to agree with Pierro firming in from $2.20 to a nearly odds-on price of $2.05 in the latest The Run To The Rose odds at bookmaker.com.au.
The only other hopeful in the small field is then the Michael, Wayne and John Hawkes-trained All Too Hard ($2.50 out to $2.60) out to improve on their second to Pierro in the Group 1 Inglis Sires Produce Stakes (1400m) as a two-year-old last April, and their first-up third behind Snitzerland in the Group 3 San Domenico Stakes (1100m) at Rosehill on August 18.
But are these dominant two the Races.com.au’s Run To The Rose quinella tip? And if so, do we think the bookies have the odds the right way around?
And as for third spot it is going to be a fight to fill the last of the minor placings, so which horse to back?
To help guide our tips and your bets below we have the detailed Run To The Rose 2012 form guide facts and betting stats followed by our trifecta tip for the race.
2012 The Run To The Rose Form Guide Facts & Betting Stats
- Last year’s The Run To The Rose winner was the Anthony Cummings-trained Smart Missile who won the race first-up having taken out the Todman Stakes during the autumn – they jumped from barrier 7 (of 7) and were ridden by Glen Boss
- This year’s Todman Stakes winner #1 Pierro ($2.05) also runs first-up in the race
- The other resuming runners are #3 Ashokan ($19) and #4 Epaulette ($7)
- Cummings meanwhile will shoot for successive wins with #5 Your Song ($12) and #6 Ninth Legion ($15), the later having also drawn the extreme outside barrier (6 of 6) this year
- The highest Win Rate of the field belongs to the unbeaten #1 Pierro (100%) followed by #5 Your Song (66.67%)
- Three horses meanwhile boast a perfect 100% Place Rate with #1 Pierro, #2 All Too Hard ($2.60) and #5 Your Song
- #5 Your Song ($12) is also the only other last-start winner in the field along with Pierro; they have however only ever raced on wet tracks and Saturday’s race is due to run on a Good (3)
- #1 Pierro is unbeaten at the track (3-3-0-0) and others to have run and won at Rosehill are #2 All Too Hard (2-1-0-1), #4 Epaulette (3-1-1-0) and #5 Your Song (1-1-0-0)
- #1 Pierro also boasts a flawless record over the distance (2-2-0-0) and other horses with winning form over 1200m are #2 All Too Hard (1-1-0-0), #3 Ashokan (3-1-1-0) and #4 Epaulette (4-2-1-0)
2012 The Run To The Rose Trifecta Tip
Too much in favour of Pierro not to support this star juvenile who is sure to come on as a three-year-old and post many more wins starting with Saturday.
All Too Hard is highly-rated and deservingly slow, will be better of 1400m to a mile but is the obvious second pick looking fit after a first-up run.
Your Song needs to handle the firm ground, step up in distance and fight off the others vying for third spot but they have two good Sydney wins on their record and plenty of upside.
Whether you are backing or sacking our The Run To The Rose selections you can get the guaranteed hottest prices online at bookmaker.com.au – home of the innovative “QuickBet” function that allows you to place your bets in three clicks making it perfect for a quick spring fling!
2012 The Run To The Rose Form Guide
Rosehill Race 5 – 3:10pm – 01/09/2012
|1.||PIERRO||Ms G Waterhouse||Nash Rawiller||4||60||3yoC||126||$491,025||6: 6 0 0||100.00%||100.00%||11111x|
|2.||ALL TOO HARD||“M, W and J Hawkes||Dwayne Dunn||2||59||3yoC||14||$86,240||5: 3 1 1||60.00%||100.00%||1112×3|
|3.||ASHOKAN||J A O’shea||Glyn Schofield||3||58||3yoC||140||$23,325||4: 1 1 0||25.00%||50.00%||2106x|
|4.||EPAULETTE||Peter Snowden||Kerrin Mc Evoy||5||57.5||3yoC||147||$63,125||4: 2 1 0||50.00%||75.00%||1120x|
|5.||YOUR SONG||A J Cummings||Peter Robl||1||57||3yoC||56||$44,393||3: 2 0 1||66.67%||100.00%||311|
|6.||NINTH LEGION||A J Cummings||Hugh Bowman||6||56||3yoC||14||$26,450||4: 2 0 0||50.00%||50.00%||1154|
*Form Guide Credit – Ladbrokes.com.au
*All odd quoted are Fixed Win from bookmaker.com.au and subject to change