Murwillumbah trainer Matthew Dunn is looking...
The 2012 Sir John Monash Stakes takes center stage at Caulfield Racecourse this Saturday and with a wide open betting market below the Races.com.au team have provided our exclusive betting tips for the feature.
Jumping at 3:07pm as Caulfield Race 6 this year’s $100,000 Listed Sir John Monash Stakes (1100m) looks set to be run in the wet, the course proper having been downgraded to a Heavy (8) this morning.
With the penetrometer reading 6.09 and the rail out +10 metres the entire circuit, Sir John Monash Stakes tips for 2012 are certainly going to favour the known mudlarks and wet trackers.
Already the weather has claimed one runner with the early withdrawal of former WA filly Night War, with more scratchings from still 16-starter Monash Stakes field likely before race time.
The latest Sir John Monash Stakes odds are led by the lightly-raced Le Societe, Peter Moody’s promising and to date very consistent young Anabaa filly having firmed in from $5 to $4.80.
She has twice handled a Slow (7) track to win including first-up at Caulfield on June 30 but how will she go in this notable class rise and is she the Races.com.au tip to win?
Five of her rivals are all also under double-figures in the markets and all have genuine claims to the title including the Clinton Mcdonald-trained Second Effort ($6.50), David Hayes’ Group 1 winner Eagle Falls ($7.50) and last year’s runner-up Rue Maple ($9).
So do we have one of these horses rated special to become the next Sir John Monash Stakes winner? Are we tipping an upset with a longer priced hopeful such as Australian Guineas third placegetter Mister Milton ($21), and what are our place and roughie picks?
#4 Second Effort ($6.50)
- A market mover since the track downgrade as they boast a flawless wet track record
- Five wins from five starts on Slow ground
- Two wins from two starts on Heavy ground
- Impressive Win & Place rate of 65%
- Won two earlier runs this year
- Ignore last start 12th down the straight at Flemington, they had 60kg and a wide barrier 12 (of 13)
- Get a slightly better gate here (9) and drop to 58.5kg
Best Place Bets:
#11 Rue Maple ($9)
- Another market mover with good reason
- Ran a slashing second in this last year
- Is wide (14) but can overcome
- Great 69% Win & Place rate
#16 Le Societe ($4.80)
- Is the favourite but goes up in class here
- Lightly-raced and on the way up
- Last start winner at the track
- Loves it wet with two slow track wins and a victory on a heavy track already in her short four runs for three wins career
#7 Zamorar ($8)
- 78% Win & Place rate
- Hasn’t seen it Heavy but a win and three seconds from four starts on Slow
- Good record at Caulfield (2-1-1-0) and over the distance (2-1-1)
- Also won over 1100m here two back carrying 60kg, drops to 58kg
- Comes off a good second in the Listed AR Creswick Stakes (1200m) at Flemington
Roughie We Like:
#5 Alpha Proxima ($26)
- Is out wide but another great wet tracker yet to finish out of the money on a Heavy course (3-1-1-1)
- Odds have drifted but the form in the lead-up is good, two wins and a second including one at Caulfield
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