Murwillumbah trainer Matthew Dunn is looking...
Group 1 racing in Queensland for the Brisbane Winter Racing Carnival gets underway at Doomben Racecourse this Saturday, and to help our readers back the first elite level winner of the festival below we have our insider 2012 BTC Cup form guide and betting preview.
With jump time scheduled as 3:50pm the $400,000 Group 1 Bundaberg Distilling Co. BTC Cup (1200m) will run as Doomben Race 7, and while it lacks the talent of last year’s winning quinella Black Caviar and Hay List there is still plenty of talent in the mix.
Topping the BTC Cup odds at bookmaker.com.au is last year’s third placed Buffering.
The Rob Heathcote-trained Mossman four-year-old has been racing super competitively at the highest level for a while now would have broken their Group 1 duck had it not been for the freakishly talented Black Caviar.
Without her in the picture on Saturday it would seem the BTC Cup title would be Buffering’s for the taking, and yes they are the $2.60 favourite but their barrier 14 of 15 draw suggests it won’t be that easy.
Among Buffering’s biggest dangers according the BTC Cup betting markets are the Joe Pride-trained Neeson ($7.50), John O’Shea’s classy young filly Sea Siren ($7.50), and reigning Doomben 10,000 champion Beaded ($10).
So can Buffering score that elusive thoroughbred major even from the wide gate?
Can their Oakleigh Plate winning stablemate Woorim add value to the winning BTC Cup Trifecta?
Is there a BTC Cup upset on the cards from one of the other shorter fancies?
Or will a roughie take out the title with the likes of The Galaxy winner Temple Of Boom ($13), or even dual Stradbroke Handicap winner Black Piranha who is the $51 rank outsider?
To save you time going over the form, the Races.com.au team has taken the hard work out of placing a well-informed BTC Cup bet.
Having studied the BTC Cup field, form guide, betting history, facts and stats we have come up with the following need to know info.
2012 BTC Cup Form Guide Facts & Betting Stats
- Last year’s BTC Cup winner Black Caviar came off a win in the TJ Smith Stakes, and jumped form barrier four (of 14)
- Horses coming via this year’s TJ Smith Stakes are #6 Neeson (4th) and #12 Varenna Miss (5th)
- #12 Varenna Miss ($12) is also drawn in last year’s winning gate
- At the opposite end of the scale barriers 11 and 15 have produced no BTC Cup winners in 33 years; the hoodoo gates belong to #4 Temple Of Boom (15) and #10 Facile Tigre (11) this year
- #15 Sea Siren ($7.50) boasts the highest Win Rate of the field by far with 60.00%
- She is followed by #10 Facile Tigre (41.18%) and #11 Beaded (41.18%)
- The best Place Percentage also belongs to Sea Siren (100%) who is yet to finish out of the money
- The next best Place Bets according to the figures are then #11 Beaded (88.00%), #10 Facile Tigre (76.47%) and #3 Buffering (65.52%)
- There are two last start winners engaged with #3 Buffering (Coca-Cola Amatil WFA Open, 1200m, Eagle Farm, 02/05/2012) and #4 Temple Of Boom (Group 1 The Galaxy, 1100m, Randwick, 21/04/2012)
- Favourites have a good recent record having won two of the last four editions; #3 Buffering ($2.60) is the top elect this year
- Three-year-olds have only won once in the past decade with Duporth (2009); there are three three-year-olds engaged this year with #13 Elite Falls ($26), #14 Satin Shoes ($17) and #15 Sea Siren ($7.50) – all are fillies
- At Doomben horses with the best Track Record are #3 Buffering (5-2-0-2), #5 Woorim (9-3-3-1), #8 Adebisi (10-5-0-1), #11 Beaded (2-2-0-0), and #12 Varenna Miss (1-1-0-0)
- The only hopefuls that haven’t won over the 1200-metres before are #1 Back Piranha (9-0-2-1) and #14 Satin Shoes (7-0-2-1)
- Of the others records over the distance that stand out include #3 Buffering (16-5-5-3), #9 Title (10-5-3-1), #10 Facile Tigre (9-4-1-1), #11 Beaded (14-5-5-2), and #15 Sea Siren (4-3-0-1)
- Horses with winning form over the Track & Distance are #3 Buffering (3-1-0-2), #8 Adebisi (5-3-0-0), and #12 Varenna Miss (1-1-0-0)
Stay tuned to Races.com.au as we will be publishing our insider BTC Cup tips and selections shortly.
Already picked the winning BTC Cup trifecta and want to lock it in at the best prices?
2012 BTC Cup Field & Form Guide
Doomben Race 7 – 3:50pm – 12/05/2012
|1.||BLACK PIRANHA||C Karakatsanis||Paul Hammersley||3||58.5||8yoG||196||$43,455||61: 8 13 4||13.11%||40.98%||54440x|
|2.||SCENIC BLAST||D L Morton||Shane Scriven||1||58.5||7yoG||10||$70,415||29: 8 7 4||27.59%||65.52%||3x45x2|
|3.||BUFFERING||R L Heathcote||Nash Rawiller||14||58.5||4yoG||10||$60,475||24: 9 5 4||37.50%||75.00%||2×3231|
|4.||TEMPLE OF BOOM||T J Gollan||James Mc Donald||15||58.5||5yoG||21||$37,767||29: 10 4 5||34.48%||65.52%||3×6081|
|5.||WOORIM||R L Heathcote||Damian Browne||7||58.5||6yoG||35||$26,354||40: 11 6 3||27.50%||50.00%||7×1580|
|6.||NEESON||Joseph Pride||Corey Brown||9||58.5||5yoG||14||$26,352||28: 8 4 5||28.57%||60.71%||x26343|
|7.||SPIRIT OF BOOM||T J Gollan||Ric Mc Mahon||2||58.5||4yoH||28||$29,079||24: 6 5 2||25.00%||54.17%||3911×2|
|8.||ADEBISI||Desleigh Forster||Chris Munce||12||58.5||4yoG||10||$21,700||25: 7 3 2||28.00%||48.00%||139×16|
|9.||TITLE||Joseph Pride||Glen Colless||6||58.5||5yoG||21||$22,465||24: 9 5 1||37.50%||62.50%||29×714|
|10.||FACILE TIGRE||Jason Mclachlan||Brad Rawiller||11||58.5||5yoG||63||$22,082||17: 7 3 3||41.18%||76.47%||211×30|
|11.||BEADED||Peter Snowden||Kerrin Mc Evoy||8||56.5||6yoM||50||$63,151||25: 10 7 5||40.00%||88.00%||22×205|
|12.||VARENNA MISS||A W Noonan||Jimmy Byrne||4||56.5||5yoM||28||$23,686||14: 5 1 1||35.71%||50.00%||x500x5|
|13.||ELITE FALLS||J A O’shea||Larry Cassidy||13||55||3yoF||21||$60,377||13: 2 3 1||15.38%||46.15%||69×250|
|14.||SATIN SHOES||C E Conners||Blake Shinn||10||55||3yoF||21||$37,694||16: 5 3 1||31.25%||56.25%||5×0220|
|15.||SEA SIREN||J A O’shea||Jimmy Cassidy||5||55||3yoF||63||$39,846||5: 3 1 1||60.00%||100.00%||31112|
*All odd quoted are Fixed Win from bookmaker.com.au and subject to change
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