2012 South Australian Derby Tips & Predictions

The South Australian Derby 2012 is the race all punters and fans will want to get their bets down on at Morphettville on Saturday, and to help our readers discern the genuine contenders from the pretenders below you will find our insider tips and betting predictions on the classic clash.

Dwayne Dunn

Dwayne Dunn rides our best place chance in the 2012 SA Derby - Strike The Stars

A crack field of both local and interstate three-year-olds are engaged to face off in Morphettville Race 7 on Saturday for the $500,000 Group 1 South Australian Derby (2500m) but so far there are only two chances in the eyes of the punters.

Anthony Cummings’ Group 1 performer from Sydney Strike The Stars and Melbourne’s up-and-comer Zabeelionaire are battling it out in the SA Derby odds at bookmaker.com.au currently at an equal quote of $4 to win.

While there has been a tickle for Gai Waterhouse’s flying youngster Tohunga ($6.50) since they earned a guaranteed start, the only other hopeful under double figures is Pelicano ($7.50).

Both are genuine chances of upsetting the top two in our eyes as they both come off multiple wins and are out to continue the purple patch with a Derby triumph.

Earlier in the week the Races.com.au team published our exclusive 2012 South Australian Derby Form Guide & Betting Preview and based on what we discovered there below we have our tips to back at bookmaker.com.au.

To Win:

#5 Pelicano ($7.50)

The two favourites certainly have claims and while Tohunga is a live wire chance we are tipping an upset with Tony McEvoy’s local Court Of Jewels gelding Pelicano. Why?

  • 71% Win / Place percentage
  • Highest win rate of the field (71.43%)
  • Have won their last three in Adelaide most recently by 2.5 lengths at this track over 2400m
  • Distance is ideal as they have progressed from 1900m, to 2150m and then finally to 2400m at their last three and the extra 100m is no stretch
  • Is wide (barrier 15) but time to overcome
  • Matthew Neilson stays on
  • Keeping it local this year

To Place

#1 Strike The Stars ($4)

  • Like the Sydney form better than the Melbourne form of Zabeelionaire
  • Barrier three will suit
  • Has been racing against the best all season and doing a good job of it
  • Class and Group 1 experience including their last start fourth in the Australian Derby
  • Extra 100m will be fine
  • Deserves the Group 1 win but likely have to settle with second

#17 Tohunga ($6.50)

  • A Gai Waterhouse in a Group 1 is about enough reasoning at the moment
  • Get a barrier with four
  • Tommy Berry rides and they partnered to win by six lengths at Gosford two back
  • Out for their third on the trot
  • Winning form up to 2100m
  • Could lack some class but they are here and ready to find out

Roughies We Like

#4 Cornell ($11)

  • Good record at the track (2-1-0-1)
  • Has seen the distance when 12th in the Vic Derby last year – has come on since
  • 73% Win / Place rate
  • Won the Port Adelaide Guineas two back
  • Has winning form earlier in Melbourne carrying 60kg
  • Third to Heaven’s Riches last start in the Chairman’s and will improve

#8 Heaven’s Riches ($26)

  • Liked their Chairman’s win at the track last start and you won’t get then at $151 again
  • Was it a fluke? Have to wait and see but worth a sneaky Each Way bet

#16 Essence ($51)

  • Didn’t hate her Schweppes Oaks third last Saturday
  • Is rough every time ($81) last time but should get the distance the way she’s been racing – Claire Lindop stays on

Read enough to suggest Pelicano can get the job done at a good price? Sticking with one of the favourites based on the form? Or have a longer priced youngster in this field you want to back based on a racetrack whisper?

Whatever horse you are backing this SA Derby Day make sure you lock them in at the best price online at bookmaker.com.au.

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