Danny O’Brien’s Victorian visitor The New Boy is the early favourite to take out one of Morphettville’s major support races on South Australian Derby Day this Saturday and win the Adelaide Guineas 2012.
Making their first interstate appearance since November last year in the $80,000 Listed Adelaide Guineas (1600m), Rock Of Gibraltar gelding The New Boy is looking to break a 12 month winning drought.
The youngster was last seen in the winner’s stall at Flemington back in May last year but has failed to win in their five runs since.
They have been thereabouts this season however, The New Boy most recently seen running a close third to Red Typhoon in a 1700m handicap at Caulfield on April 7.
Dropping back to a mile The New Boy holds a distinct advantage over many in this field that are yet to see the distance and as such they sit top of the Adelaide Guineas odds at bookmaker.com.au paying $2.80.
Second favourite in the Adelaide Guineas betting, the race running as Morphettville Race 5 at 2:20pm (SA time), is Patrick Payne’s nicely bred Bel Esprit colt Hot Lover.
Last seen running away with their third win from just five starts Hot Lover was able to put an easy two and a half lengths on their rivals in a 1300m Handicap at Echuca on April 15.
They carried a hefty 60kg for that victory with Michelle Payne aboard and on Saturday should appreciate getting down to 57.5kg for the Adelaide Guineas.
Saturday will be the first stakes assignment for Hot Lover who will have Rhys McLeod in the saddle.
McLeod has ridden the youngster once before for their smart first-up win at Warrnambool back in March and the bookies are tipping the duo to be successful again on Saturday.
Despite it being Hot Lover’s first look at the mile they pay a short $3.70 in the latest markets.
In a tight betting affair there are four other single figure chances in the field with:
- #4 Riziz ($7) – Local gelding comes off a second to Balzeus in the HC Nitschke Stakes (1400m)
- #3 Balzeus ($7.50) – HC Nitschke Stakes winner
- #10 Just Discreet ($8.50) – Phillip Stokes-trained Exceed And Excel filly drops back to the mile after a brave seventh to Crucial in the Group 3 Schweppervescence Stakes (1800m) last start
- #2 Meshmaker ($9) – Ran a good second in the Port Adelaide Guineas before failing their distance test in the Group 3 Chairman’s Stakes (2000m) last Saturday, get another stakes chance here over a more suitable distance
So with so many live wire chances which horse does the Races.com.au team have rated special to win?
2012 Adeladie Guineas Trifecta Tip
- #5 Hot Lover from #4 Riziz and #10 Just Discreet
Yes the favourite is a classy type but we think there is better value laying them this time.
There is a whole lot to like about Hot Lover who is rising in distance and class but who has the skills.
They are no stranger to the track either having started their career in Adelaide under Matthew Seyers and the last time they were here (November) they won.
Riziz is at an excellent price considering their huge last tart effort behind Balzeus in the Nitschke Stakes last start, they will improve when stepping up to the mile.
Just Discreet can be forgiven for her last start seventh in the Group 3 Schweppervescence Stakes (1800m), she will be better getting back to the mile even though she goes back to taking on the boys.
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2012 Adelaide Guineas Odds
Morphettville Race 5 – 2:50pm – 05/05/2012
|1||THE NEW BOY (6)||2.80|
|5||HOT LOVER (7)||3.70|
|6||KINSELMAC MANNER (1)||31.00|
|7||ROUGH DEAL (8)||41.00|
|8||HAMMER TIME (4)||26.00|
|9||GREY MUSTANG (5)||31.00|
|10||JUST DISCREET (3)||8.50|
*All odds quoted are Fixed Win from bookmaker.com.au and subject to change