Will Niwot Stage 2012 Sydney Cup Upset?

One of the best backed horses in the Sydney Cup 2012 this year is the Michael, Wayne and John Hawkes-trained Niwot who will step up to the two miles for the first time since last year’s Melbourne Cup.

Niwot

Niwot is one of the best backed horses in the 2012 Sydney Cup odds

Winner of the Group 3 The Lexus Stakes (2500m) by an impressive three lengths on Victoria Derby Day at Flemington last October seven-year-old Galileo gelding Niwot went on to run a brave eighth just four lengths off the winner Dunaden in the iconic Melbourne Cup.

They race over the 3200-metres again on Saturday this time at Royal Randwick for the $500,000 Group 1 Schweppes Sydney Cup running as Race 6 at 3:35pm.

Drawn in barrier two with Dwayne Dunn to ride at 55.5kg Niwot comes off two good fourth place finishes behind the flying Manighar in the Group 1 Ranvet Stakes (2000m) and Group 1 The BMW (2400m) at Rosehill.

Fresh off a three week break they are now ready to take on a crack field including Chris Waller’s $3.80 favourite Permit and gallant Adelaide Cup second placegetter Drunken Sailor ($6.50).

Currently Niwot pays $4.40 in the Sydney Cup betting odds at bookmaker.com.au and according to our preferred bookie they have clearly been the best supported in the 16-stayer field.

“Money has continued to flood in for Niwot, easily the best backed runner,” Ryan Clark from bookmaker.com.au says.

So is that money justified and will Niwot reward the punters coming for them in the markets on Saturday?

See below for the pros and cons of backing Niwot to win the Sydney Cup 2012.

#3 Niwot – Horse Facts

  • Trainer: Michael, Wayne & John Hawks
  • Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
  • Barrier: 2
  • Weight: 55.5kg
  • Owners: R & C Legh Racing Synd (MGR: R & MRS C LEGH), S W Kay, Gurners Bloodstock Synd (MGR: A RAMSDEN), M J & Mrs M A Calman & N J & Mrs J S Griffin
  • Age: 7YO
  • Gender: Gelding
  • Breeding: by Galileo (IRE) out of Too Darn Hot (NZ)
  • Career: 27-8-4-1
  • Prize Money: $854,325
  • Win%: 29.63%
  • Place%: 48.15%
  • Last 6: 854325
  • Current 2012 Sydney Cup Odds: $4.40

Yes – Niwot Can Win the 2012 Sydney Cup

  • Is prepared by a former Sydney Cup winning trainer with John Hawkes, who now co-trains with sons Michael and Wayne, and who won the 1994 Sydney Cup with Cross Swords
  • Will enjoy the drop back from 59kg that they have carried for their four starts this time in to just 55.5kg
  • Comes off two good finishes behind a champion at elite level
  • Has winning form over the distance having taken out the Listed Andrew Ramsden Stakes last May
  • Also raced competitively over 3200-metres in the 2011 Melbourne Cup
  • Has one of the best Win Rates here with 29.63% trailing only Peal Of Belles (40%) and Permit (33.33%)

No – Niwot Won’t Be the Sydney Cup 2012 Winner

  • Give 2kg to some classy rivals including the $3.80 favourite Permit who is on the 53.5kg minimum
  • Barrier two, will they get caught up?
  • Need to beat some good horses including the favourite, Drunken Sailor and Gai Waterhouse’s 2011 Sydney Cup runner-up Older than Time

Fancy Niwot upsetting the favourite Permit once the Sydney Cup results are in?

Back them now at their current price before Sydney Cup odds come in through bookmaker.com.au.

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