Can Sincero Score Upset 2012 Doncaster Mile Result?

He faces some stiff competition but the punters haven’t shied away from Sincero scoring an upset win the Saturday’s Doncaster Mile 2012, so are they a genuine chance in this capacity field or will they fall by the wayside come the finish line?

Sincero

Sincero is a genuine chance of winning his third Group 1 title in the Doncaster Mile 2012 this Saturday

It has been awhile between drinks for Stephen Farley’s dual Group 1 winning Umatilla gelding, four-year-old Sincero looking to break a seven month drought when they take on the best milers in the business in the $2 million Group 1 BMW Doncaster Mile Handicap (1600m) at Royal Randwick this weekend.

After hitting the big time with an upset win over Beaded in last year’s Stradbroke Handicap in Brisbane, this Wyong-based galloper last saw the inside of a winner’s stall when they scored a second elite level in the George Main Stakes last September.

Saturday sees them race third-up for the season after two promising runs.

First-up they came within one and three quarter lengths of $6 co-Doncaster Mile betting favourite More Joyous in the Group 2 Canterbury Stakes (1300m) at Rosehill before their last start fifth beaten just half a length in the Group 1 George Ryder Stakes (1500m) on April 7.

While their third-up record isn’t great, Farley has confidence that they have improvement in them.

It seems the bookies agree as Sincero is the $9 second pick in the latest Doncaster Mile odds at bookmaker.com.au trailing only $6 shared favourites More Joyous and Secret Admirer.

So can Sincero get the better of the mares on Saturday and win the Doncaster?

See below for the pros and cons of getting behind them with your Doncaster Mile bets.

#6 Sincero – Horse Facts

  • Trainer: Stephen Farley
  • Jockey: Craig Williams
  • Barrier: 6
  • Weight: 55.5kg
  • Owners: G De Vries, P Walker, M Murphy, Mindshore Synd Pty Ltd, I Turbet, D Chappelow, S Mcleish, K Duggan, R Poot, S N Johnson
  • Age: 4YO
  • Gender: Gelding
  • Breeding: by Umatilla (NZ) out of Yours As Always (AUS)
  • Career: 21-11-1-0
  • Prize Money: $1,501,975
  • Current 2012 Doncaster Mile Odds: $9)

Why Sincero Can Win the 2012 Doncaster Mile

  • Has one of the best jockeys in the world on his back with Craig Williams riding for the first time
  • Came up trumps with barrier 6, not too close to the fence but still inside enough to save them doing more work than they need to
  • His main dangers More Joyous and Secret Admirer both drew outside him in gates 12 and 22 respectively
  • Will also love getting a gate after jumping from 11 (of 15) and 17 (of 17) in his past two runs
  • Weighted on 55.5kg and while he gives a bit of weight to some class types including Hurtle Myrtle (53kg), Absolutely (52kg) and Niagara (52kg) he will relish carrying this after having 59kg on his back for his opening two starts this season
  • Should handle the likely Heavy track having blown his rivals away in the 2011 Gosford Guineas this time last year on a Heavy (10) by five lengths
  • Has the third best Win Rate of the field with 52.38%, the second-best if More Joyous is scratched because of the wet
  • Excellent Randwick track record with two wins from three attempts, the same as his record over the 1600-metres
  • Won on the track and distance back in 2010

Why Sincero Can’t Win the Doncaster Mile 2012

  • Needs to beat Secret Admirer
  • Could be a better Place chance in this field
  • Their third-up record is dismal

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