Murwillumbah trainer Matthew Dunn is looking...
There is more than just the Doncaster Mile to look forward to at Royal Randwick this Saturday with two other Group 1 features on the card, one of which is the 2012 Australian Oaks– the Races.com.au team’s exclusive form guide and betting preview for the three-year-old fillies’ classic found below.
Due to jump as Randwick Race 5 at 2:16pm the $550,000 Group 1 Patinack Farm Australian Oaks (2400m) has drawn just eight contenders with Streama the pronounced favourite in the latest bookmaker.com.au markets.
She’s a Group 1 winner, proven on the track and distance, a muddie-lover and with form around much better horses than these.
So can Streama be beaten in an upset Australian Oaks result on Saturday?
Will Roger James’ Kiwi filly Full Of Spirit back up from her Adrian Knox Stakes triumph with another win down under?
Or is there a chance for the horses that finished third (Aliyana Tilde) and fourth (Thy) behind the second placed Streama in the Group 1 Vinery Stud Stakes (2000m) won by Mosheen at Rosehill a fortnight ago?
While the Australian Oaks odds say that $1.60 odds-on favourite Streama can’t be beaten, we have gone over the form, betting facts and stats to see if this really is the case.
2012 Australian Oaks Form Guide Facts & Betting Stats
- Last year’s Australian Oaks winner Absolutely who scored an upset on a Heavy (10) track from barrier 3 (of 16) coming off a Schweppes Oaks second
- It is going to be a wet Doncaster Mile Day again this Saturday and fillies with good Heavy track form are #1 Streama (2-1-0-1), #4 Aliyana Tilde (1-1-0-0) and #7 Suzanne (2-0-1-1)
- While the Australian Oaks was much larger 12 months ago last year’s winning gate (3) belongs on Saturday to #2 Full Of Spirit ($4.80)
- #1 Streama ($1.60) boasts the highest Win Rate of the field by far with 41.67%, the next best is #2 Full Of Spirit (33.33%)
- It is the same with Place Percentages – #2 Streama (83.33%) and #2 Full Of Spirit (55.56%)
- The next best Place chances outside the top two are then #4 Aliyana Tilde (50%) and #5 Thy (50%) both paying $9 to win
- #2 Full Of Spirit (Group 3 Adrian Knox Stakes, 2000m, Randwick, 14/04/2012) is the only last-start winner in the field
- Two hopefuls come off a last-start second like Absolutely did last year with #1 Streama (to Mosheen in the Group 1 Vinery Stud Stakes, 2000m, Rosehill, 07/04/2012) and #3 Rock Robster (to Backbone in the Listed Galilee Final, 2400m, Mornington, 08/04/2012)
- #1 Streama is undefeated at Randwick with two wins from as many attempts
- The only other filly with winning form at the track is #2 Full Of Spirit (1-1-0-0)
- #3 Rock Robster (1-0-1-0) is the only one in the field to have run over the 2400-metres before
- Favourites only have a fair recent record with five saluting in the past 20 years, #1 Streama ($1.60) is out to be the next
- #1 Streama (Guy Walter) is one of four in the race trained by a former Australian Oaks winning horseman along with her stablemates #6 Lightens ($41) and #8 Colourist ($61), and the Clarry Conners-trained #7 Suzanne ($81)
- Hugh Bowman (Daffodil, 2009) is the only past Australian Oaks winning jockey with a ride on Saturday as he partners with #1 Streama
Stay tuned to Races.com.au for our insider Australian Oaks betting tips and trifecta selection to be published shortly.
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2012 Australian Oaks Field & Form Guide
Royal Randwick Race 5 – 2:16pm – 21/04/2012
|1.||STREAMA||G H Walter||Hugh Bowman||6||56||3yoF||14||$66,396||12: 5 4 1||41.67%||83.33%||1×2152|
|2.||FULL OF SPIRIT||R A James||James Mc Donald||3||56||3yoF||7||$11,336||9: 3 1 1||33.33%||55.56%||743211|
|3.||ROCK ROBSTER||D A Hayes||Craig Williams||8||56||3yoF||13||$8,755||10: 2 1 1||20.00%||40.00%||431102|
|4.||ALIYANA TILDE||K J Parker||Blake Shinn||4||56||3yoF||14||$9,414||10: 2 1 2||20.00%||50.00%||425133|
|5.||THY||P G Moody||Luke Nolen||5||56||3yoF||14||$6,558||6: 1 1 1||16.67%||50.00%||2×4134|
|6.||LIGHTENS||G H Walter||Kerrin Mc Evoy||2||56||3yoF||7||$3,859||9: 1 2 0||11.11%||33.33%||172644|
|7.||SUZANNE||C E Conners||Christian Reith||7||56||3yoF||7||$2,038||14: 1 1 2||7.14%||28.57%||302179|
|8.||COLOURIST||G H Walter||Kathy O’Hara||1||56||3yoF||7||$1,844||11: 1 1 0||9.09%||18.18%||5×2160|
*Form Guide Credit – Ladbrokes.com.au
*All odds quoted are Fixed Win from bookmaker.com.au and subject to change
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