2012 TJ Smith Stakes Betting Tips & Odds Update

The Royal Randwick Autumn Racing Carnival gets underway in Sydney this Saturday with a triple shot of Group 1 racing highlighting Australian Derby Day, the best betting tips and predictions for one of those – the TJ Smith Stakes 2012– found below.

Rain Affair

Rain Affair is the Races.com.au tip to win the 2012 TJ Smith Stakes

This is a really tough one and the bookies, punters and the Races.com.au team are having a hard time separating the top two for this year’s edition of the $1 million Group 1 Darley TJ Smith Stakes (1200m).

The steady $2.10 favourite in the TJ Smith Stakes odds at bookmaker.com.au is talented three-year-old Foxwedge in barrier three with in-form hoop Nash Rawiller to ride.

John O’Shea’s colt is well tried in Group 1 company having run their last four in elite levels across Melbourne, most recently scoring a shock upset over Hay List in the Group 1 William Reid Stakes (1200m) at Moonee Valley on March 23.

Can they do it again here in Sydney?

The punters are saying yes as their main danger Rain Affair, shooting for their 11th straight Sydney success, easing out from their earlier price of $2.15 to $2.25.

Rain Affair’s stablemate Neeson at $11 and Gai Waterhouse’s ultra-consistent filly Hallowell Belle paying $13 are the only other hopes in this small horse field rated a chance.

So are the markets spot on here and is Foxwedge the one to beat? Or will Sydney specialist Rain Affair put them in their place after Foxwedge’s testing interstate trip?

Earlier this week the Races.com.au team published a comprehensive TJ Smith Stakes 2012 Form Guide Preview & Betting Guide, and based on the facts in this below are our tips on the lucrative weight-for-age feature.

Australian Derby Day Race 4 Betting – 2012 TJ Smith Stakes Tips

Races.com.au Tip To Win

#1 Rain Affair ($2.25)

Always keen for a bit of value we are going to tip Rain Affair here but don’t come knocking on our door if Foxwedge gets up.

Lots to like about Pride’s stable ace, including the fact they have won their past 10 Sydney starts, not having been beaten in NSW since their second first-up at Canterbury back in February last year.

The love Randwick having broken their Group maiden here in the Missile Stakes last August which came after they saw the track for the first time at Kensington with a six length win in the wet 12 months ago.

They worked hard last start to win the Challenge Stakes (1100m) at Rosehill and they’ll have to put in the hard yards again here but they are capable.

Pride shoots for another TJ Smith Stakes win to add to Red Oog’s from 2006, while jockey Corey Brown has also seen success in this one.

Can’t ignore the 84.62% win rate and 92.31% place percentage and they are a 1200-metre specialists with three wins from four attempts.

Best Place Chance

#4 Foxwedge ($2.10)

Really could go either way here so take both Rain Affair and Foxwedge Each Way in the markets.

You don’t beat the country’s second best sprinter in a Group 1 at the Valley without talent, and Foxwedge is talented.

They have been interstate for a while and will need to get back on their Sydney let when they return to their home track for the first time since their Roman Consul Stakes win here last October.

Shoots for the same William Reid Stakes – TJ Smith Stakes double as the mighty Black Caviar last year and Nash Rawiller is in flying form which will help, perhaps just not quite enough.

Roughie To Try

#6 Hallowell Belle ($13)

Lots to like about Waterhouse’s Starcraft filly who has finished outside the top three just once in her 12-start career to date when fourth behind Atlantic Jewel in the Thousand Guineas last spring.

Comes off a win over 1200m at Rosehill where she overcame barrier 14 of 14 and will get a much easier run here.

Past two winners were female with Black Caviar (2011) and Melito (2010) so her sex is right, as is her trainer with Waterhouse shooting for her fourth TJ Smith Stakes win.

Agree with the horse we are tipping to become the 2012 TJ Smith Stakes winner? Like another galloper in the field and want to back them at the best price?

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2012 TJ Smith Stakes Betting Market Moves

Royal Randwick Race 4 – 1:40pm – 14/04/2012

  • 1. Rain Affair$2.25 out from $2.15
  • 2. Neeson – Steady at $11
  • 3. Master Of Design$81 in from $101
  • 4. Foxwedge – Steady at $2.10
  • 5. Varenna Miss$61 in from $71
  • 6. Hallowell Belle – Steady at $13

*All odds quoted are Fixed Win from bookmaker.com.au and subject to change