TJ Smith Stakes 2012 Form Guide Preview & Betting

It may have drawn a final field of just six hopefuls but the 2012 TJ Smith Stakes is still shaping up as one of the best races at Randwick’s Australian Derby Day on Saturday, and to guide your betting below we have the Races.com.au insider form guide preview on the weight-for-age showdown.

Rain Affair

Rain Affair has drifted out in their price to win the 2012 TJ Smith Stakes this Saturday

Set to jump at 1:40pm as Randwick Race 4 the $1 million Group 1 Darley TJ Smith Stakes (1200m) looks to be a two horse race with Group 1 winning three-year-old Foxwedge taking on Joe Pride’s ultra-consistent four-year-old Rain Affair.

This is definitely the battle of the big guns with the John O’Shea-trained Foxwedge coming off an upset win over triple Group 1 champ Hay List in the William Reid Stakes, while Commands gelding Rain Affair shoots for their 12th win from just 14 starts.

In the latest TJ Smith Stakes betting markets at bookmaker.com.au Foxwedge ($2.10) narrowly holds favouritism over Rain Affair ($2.15 out to $2.20), but with the big money starting to roll in don’t be surprised to see one of them enter odds-on territory before jump time.

Pride’s other hopeful Neeson ($11) coming off a third to their star stablemate in the Challenge Stakes, and the classy Gai Waterhouse-trained Starcraft filly Hallowell Belle ($13) are the other two more notable chances.

So can one of the double-figure hopefuls claim an upset TJ Smith Stakes result?

Will Foxwedge be able to score their second thoroughbred major? Or will Rain Affair prove too good for this field?

To save you scrolling through the TJ Smith Stakes form guide we have gone over the field, race facts, betting history and important stats to come up with the below need-to-know points on this Sydney Autumn Racing Carnival classic.

2012 TJ Smith Stakes Form Guide Facts & Betting Stats

  • Last year’s TJ Smith Stakes winner was the brilliant Peter Moody-trained mare Black Caviar who came off a win in the William Reid Stakes and jumped from barrier 5 (of 11)
  • This year #4 Foxwedge $2.10) will attempt the same William Reid Stakes – TJ Smith Stakes double as Black Caviar
  • #2 Neeson ($11) will jump from last year’s winning gate (5) but the field is five smaller than 12 months ago
  • Along with Foxwedge other horses coming off a last start win are #1 Rain Affair (Group 2 Challenge Stakes, 1100m, Rosehill, 31/03/2012) and #6 Hallowell Belle (Listed Darby Munro Stakes, 1200m, Rosehill, 31/03/2012)
  • Fillies and mares have a good recent record in the race winning the past two editions with Black Caviar (2011) and Melito (2010)
  • This year the female thoroughbreds will seek a third straight success in the TJ Smith Stakes with five-year-old Redoute’s Choice mare #5 Varenna Miss ($61) and three-year-old Starcraft filly #6 Hallowell Belle ($13)
  • Three horses are prepared by a previous TJ Smith Stakes winning trainer with #1 Rain Affair ($2.20) and #2 Neeson ($11) for Joe Pride who won with Red Oog (2006); and #6 Hallowell Belle ($13) for Gai Waterhouse who boasts three previous wins with Bentley Biscuit (2007), Shamekha (2005) and Phoenix Park (2002)
  • Hopefuls to be ridden by a former TJ Smith Stakes winning jockey this year are then #1 Rain Affair (Corey Brown), #4 Foxwedge (Nash Rawiller) and #5 Varenna Miss (Hugh Bowman)
  • #1 Rain Affair ($2.20) boasts the highest Win Rate of the field with 84.62% followed by #4 Foxwedge (41.67%)
  • #1 Rain Affair also has the best Place Percentage by far with 92.31% followed closely by #6 Hallowell Belle ($13) with an impressive 91.67%
  • Three of the field have won at Randwick before with #1 Rain Affair (1-1-0-0), #2 Neeson (5-2-1-0) and #4 Foxwedge (1-1-0-0)
  • Also #6 Hallowell Belle (2-0-2-0) has run two seconds from as many attempts at the track
  • Every horse in the TJ Smith Stakes field this year has run and won over the 1200-metres with #1 Rain Affair (4-3-0-0), #2 Neeson (9-3-2-1), #3 Master Of Design (7-3-0-1), #4 Foxwedge (7-2-2-2), #5 Varenna Miss (4-1-1-0) and #6 Hallowell Belle (5-1-3-1)
  • There are also three previous winners at the Track & Distance with #1 Rain Affair (1-1-0-0), #2 Neeson (2-1-0-0) and #4 Foxwedge (1-1-0-0)

Whatever way you’re betting on the TJ Smith Stakes this Saturday the horse racing odds and wagering option you are after can be found online at the country’s premier online bookie bookmaker.com.au.

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2012 TJ Smith Stakes Field & Form Guide

Royal Randwick Race 4 – 1:40pm – 14/04/2012

No. Horse Trainer Jockey Br. Wgt. A/S Days API Career win% Place% Last 6
1. RAIN AFFAIR Joseph Pride Corey Brown 6 58.5 4yoG 14 $62,377 13: 11 1 0 84.62% 92.31% x11161
2. NEESON Joseph Pride Michael Rodd 5 58.5 5yoG 14 $26,071 26: 8 4 4 30.77% 61.54% 10×263
3. MASTER OF DESIGN David Payne Craig Williams 4 58.5 6yoH 7 $20,826 16: 6 1 4 37.50% 68.75% 13×903
4. FOXWEDGE J A O’shea Nash Rawiller 3 56.5 3yoC 22 $78,538 12: 5 2 2 41.67% 75.00% 12×431
5. VARENNA MISS A W Noonan Hugh Bowman 2 56.5 5yoM 168 $23,969 13: 5 1 1 38.46% 53.85% 5x500x
6. HALLOWELL BELLE Ms G Waterhouse Tommy Berry 1 54.5 3yoF 14 $42,835 12: 2 6 3 16.67% 91.67% 24×331

*Form Guide Credit – Ladbrokes.com.au

*All odds quoted are Fixed Win from bookmaker.com.au and subject to change

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