Murwillumbah trainer Matthew Dunn is looking...
This Saturday one of the key support races on the bumper Chipping Norton Stakes Day program will be the 2012 Surround Stakes, an event that will see the much awaited rematch of spruik fillies Streama and Sea Siren.
Running as Warwick Farm Race 4 at 2:55pm, the $175,000 Group 2 Patinack Farm Surround Stakes (1400m) features a smart field of nine three-year-old fillies.
While Guy Walter’s resuming Flight Stakes winner Streama is the odds-on favourite at $1.80 in the Surround Stakes 2012 odds at bookmaker.com.au, there has also been steady money for her last-start conqueror Sea Siren.
Now at a quote of $4.60, the John O’Shea-trained Fastnet Rock filly Sea Siren backed up from two straight sprint wins at Canterbury to beat home Streama by a narrow margin in the Group 2 Light Fingers Stakes (1400m) at Warwick Farm.
Struggling Randwick horseman O’Shea, whose big runner on the weekend is Foxwedge in the $1 million Group 1 Newmarket Handicap (1200m) at Flemington, has high hopes that it will be the same quinella result in the Surround Stakes on Saturday.
“She’s going well and I’m really happy with her,” O’Shea said.
“We were pretty confident she would run very well in the Light Fingers, she’s a good filly that has made good progression very early in her career.
“Hopefully she’ll be competitive again on Saturday.”
So are these the only two chances in the race? Not by a mile.
Add into the mix Light Fingers Stakes third placegetter Hallowell Belle ($6.50 bookmaker.com.au) and Peter Moody’s Surround Stakes betting market mover Cute Emily ($19 bookmaker.com.au), plus the likelihood of a Heavy track on Saturday, and this is shaping up as one hell of a race.
See below for the Races.com.au team’s exclusive Surround Stakes form guide analysis and betting tips.
2012 Surround Stakes Form Guide Analysis
- Last year’s Surround Stakes winner Parables came off a third in the Light Fingers Stakes, jumped from barrier seven (of nine) and was ridden by Rod Quinn
- This year #3 Hallowell Belle ($6.50 bookmaker.com.au) ran third in the Light Fingers and is also drawn in barrier seven while Quinn has the mount on #8 Appearance ($20 bookmaker.com.au)
- #5 Sea Siren ($4.60 bookmaker.com.au) boasts the highest Win Rate of the field with 75.00% followed by #8 Appearance (50.00%)
- The best Place Percentage also belongs to #5 Sea Siren (100%) who is yet to finish out of the money followed by #3 Hallowell Belle (90.00%), #2 Streama (88.89%) and #6 Detours (85.71%)
- There are two last-start winner engaged with #5 Sea Siren (18/02/2012, Warwick Farm, Group 2 Light Fingers Stakes, 1200m) and #6 Detours (03/02/2012, Rosehill, 1200m)
- At the track fillies with the best record are #2 Streama (4-1-2-1), #5 Sea Siren (1-1-0-0), #1 Pane In The Glass (4-1-0-1), #6 Detours (2-0-0-2) and #3 Hallowell Belle (1-0-0-1)
- Over the distance the horses to get behind are #2 Streama (1-1-0-0), #1 Pane In The Glass (2-0-0-1), #4 Cute Emily (3-1-0-1) and #6 Detours (2-0-0-1)
- The fillies in the field with previous experience on Heavy ground include #8 Appearance (2-2-0-0), #2 Streama (2-1-0-1), #1 Pane In The Glass (2-1-1-0) and #6 Detours (2-1-0-1)
2012 Surround Stakes Tips
Based on the above the Races.com.au team think Streama will be hard to beat at the track on the wet and like her even at her short price.
To finish off the winning Surround Stakes Trifecta Hallowell Belle looks a nice second based on the stats with Appearance to finish off in third adding value.
- #2 Streama from #3 Hallowell Belle and #8 Appearance
Fancy our Surround Stakes selections, or have your own tips, and want to lock them in at the hottest prices?
2012 Surround Stakes Form Guide & Field
Warwick Farm Race 4 – 2:55pm – 10/03/2012
|1.||PANE IN THE GLASS||John Thompson||Blake Shinn||2||56||3yoF||21||$52,250||13: 4 3 2||30.77%||69.23%||4277×0|
|2.||STREAMA||G H Walter||Hugh Bowman||4||56||3yoF||21||$66,450||9: 4 3 1||44.44%||88.89%||3111×2|
|3.||HALLOWELL BELLE||Ms G Waterhouse||Tommy Berry||7||56||3yoF||21||$43,653||10: 1 6 2||10.00%||90.00%||2224×3|
|4.||CUTE EMILY||P G Moody||Linda Meech||1||56||3yoF||14||$18,143||10: 3 1 1||30.00%||50.00%||420×03|
|5.||SEA SIREN||J A O’shea||Jimmy Cassidy||9||56||3yoF||21||$41,058||4: 3 0 1||75.00%||100.00%||3111|
|6.||DETOURS||Peter Snowden||Peter Robl||5||56||3yoF||7||$23,361||7: 3 1 2||42.86%||85.71%||335×21|
|7.||KNEELING||John Thompson||Joao Moreira||3||56||3yoF||21||$16,860||5: 1 1 0||20.00%||40.00%||2177×0|
|8.||APPEARANCE||G H Walter||Rod Quinn||8||56||3yoF||17||$14,870||4: 2 1 0||50.00%||75.00%||12×14|
|9.||FOX||Adam Duggan||Joshua Parr||6||56||3yoF||21||$6,771||7: 2 2 0||28.57%||57.14%||x71127|
*Form Guide Credit – Ladbrokes.com.au
*All odds quoted are fixed win and provided by bookmaker.com.au – check them for updates
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