Australian Cup 2012 Form Guide Analysis & Tips

One of the premier races taking place around the nation this Saturday is the 2012 Australian Cup at Flemington’s Super Saturday of Racing, the classic weight-for-age showdown looking like Americain’s for the taking, or is it?

Illo

Illo is the Races.com.au team's upset pick to win the 2012 Australian Cup

With former favourite Lucas Cranach injuring their leg and being ruled out of the race, the $1 million Group 1 Dubai Australian Cup (2000m) field now features just eight stayers.

Making their race debut for David Hayes, 2010 Melbourne Cup winning galloper Americain now has a stranglehold over the Australian Cup odds at bookmaker.com.au.

Emerging as the clear Australian Cup betting market mover, the former French-trained champ now sits at the top of the odds paying $2.20.

One of six quality imports all fighting for the Australian Cup title, South Australia’s Southern Speed and Western Australia’s Playing God the sole Aussie-bred hopefuls in the showdown, Americain goes into the race fresh off a four month break.

Will they be fit enough to hold off an exciting field and salute for the punters?

Can Caulfield Cup winner Southern Speed become a dual Group 1 Cup winner?

Is this year the one the ‘Cups King’ Bart Cummings records an unprecedented 14th Australian Cup victory with either his in-form German import Illo or roughie of the field Precedence?

The answers to all of these questions and more become clearer after looking over the race’s betting history and the 2012 Australian Cup form guide.

The Races.com.au team has done just that for our readers and below you will find our insider Australian Cup form guide preview followed by our tips for Flemington Race 7 on Saturday.

2012 Australian Cup Form Guide & Betting Facts

  • Last year’s Australian Cup winner Shocking came off a seventh in St George Stakes, registered this year as the Peter Young Stakes, jumped from barrier 12 (of 15) and was ridden by Corey Brown
  • This year six of the Australian Cup hopefuls come via the same lead-up race with #8 Illo (2nd), #5 Manighar (3rd), #4 Glass Harmonium (4th), #9 Southern Speed (5th), #6 Precedence (7th) and #2 Efficient
  • The past 10 Australian Cup winners all contested that year’s CF Orr Stakes; #9 Southern Speed (2nd), #3 Playing God (3rd), #8 Illo (4th), #6 Precedence (8th) and #2 Efficient (9th) all contested this year’s CF Orr Stakes
  • Eight of the past 10 Australian Cup winners also contested the Peter Young (St George Stakes) and horses that ran in both races this year are #8 Illo ($5.50 bookmaker.com.au, #9 Southern Speed ($6.50 bookmaker.com.au), #6 Precedence ($31 bookmaker.com.au) and #2 Efficient ($26 bookmaker.com.au)
  • Along with the Bart Cummings-trained duo #8 Illo and #6 Precedence two other horses are prepared by former Australian Cup winning jockeys with #1 Americain (David Hayes) and #2 Efficient (Robert Hickmott)
  • #2 Efficient (Craig Newitt) is also one of two horses in the race to be ridden by a former Australian Cup winning jockey along with #9 Southern Speed (Craig Williams)
  • #4 Glass Harmonium ($7 bookmaker.com.au) is looking to become just the third horse in history along with Better Loosen Up (1991) and Zipping (2010) to win the race second-up
  • #1 Americain ($2.20 bookmaker.com.au) boasts the highest Win Rate of the field with 39.29% followed by #9 Southern Speed (31.25%)
  • The best Place Percentage belongs to #8 Illo (70.59%) followed by #3 Playing God (66.67%), #5 Manighar (62.50%) and #1 Americain (60.71%)
  • Horses to have won at Flemington previously are #1 Americain (2-1-0-0) for his 2010 Melbourne Cup triumph, #9 Southern Speed (4-1-0-0), #4 Glass Harmonium (4-1-2-0), #6 Precedence (7-1-1-0) and #2 Efficient (10-3-0-0) but not since October 2009
  • Over the Australian Cup distance (2000m) horses with a good record include #4 Glass Harmonium (10-3-1-2), #6 Precedence (6-2-0-0), #8 Illo (6-1-2-1) and #2 Efficient (8-2-0-0)

2012 Australian Cup Trifecta Tip

  • #8 Illo from #9 Southern Speed and #1 Americain – Bet now at bookmaker.com.au

The Races.com.au crew are tipping an upset and are backing Cummings’ German import Illo, fresh off a Peter Young Stakes second, to enter their trainer into the history books again.

Caulfield Cup winner Southern Speed has too much class to ignore while Americain is a champion and further into their campaign and over more distance they will notch another Aussie Group 1.

To get you Australian Cup bets down, make sure you go to the bookie offering the hottest horse racing and online sports betting markets – bookmaker.com.au.

New to sign-up with bookmaker.com.au? Quote the limited-time-only codeword BONUSBET to unlock your Welcome Bonus Bet valued up to $300!

2012 Australian Cup Form Guide & Field

Flemington Race 7 – 4:00pm – 10/03/2012

# Horse Trainer Jockey Br Wgt Age/Sex Days API Career Win% Place% Last 6
1. AMERICAIN D A Hayes Steven Arnold 9 59 7yoH 119 $189,953 28: 11 3 3 39.29% 60.71% 10141x
2. EFFICIENT Robert Hickmott Craig Newitt 4 59 8yoG 14 $179,366 26: 7 0 0 26.92% 26.92% 860×90
3. PLAYING GOD N D Parnham Steven Parnham 2 59 4yoH 14 $59,997 24: 7 4 5 29.17% 66.67% 600134
4. GLASS HARMONIUM M D Moroney Damien Oliver 8 59 6yoH 14 $56,921 23: 5 5 2 21.74% 52.17% 2010×4
5. MANIGHAR P G Moody Luke Nolen 6 59 6yoG 14 $51,988 24: 7 4 4 29.17% 62.50% 452×13
6. PRECEDENCE J B Cummings Michael Rodd 5 59 6yoG 14 $23,963 35: 6 4 1 17.14% 31.43% 090×87
7. LUCAS CRANACH Anthony Freedman Nash Rawiller 1 59 5yoH 14 $67,916 12: 6 1 1 50.00% 66.67% 1553×1
8. ILLO J B Cummings Kerrin Mc Evoy 7 59 6yoH 14 $13,086 17: 5 4 3 29.41% 70.59% x30x42
9. SOUTHERN SPEED L Macdonald and A Gluyas Craig Williams 3 57 4yoM 14 $136,803 16: 5 3 1 31.25% 56.25% 14×125

*Form Guide Credit – Ladbrokes.com.au

*Fixed Win Odds quoted subject to change – see bookmaker.com.au for updates and to bet now!