The race all keen punters are waiting for this weekend is the $750,000 Group 1 Australian Guineas (1600m) running at Flemington Racecourse, and with a capacity field where the favourites come in with mixed form and draws, below the Races.com.au have helped our readers by providing the best 2012 Australian Guineas betting tips.
Due to jump at 4:00pm (VIC time) as Flemington Race 6, the Australian Guineas odds at Luxbet are currently led by easing favourite Helmet out from $3 to $3.20.
There are some questions regarding Helmet and whether he can add a fourth Group 1 win to his name on Saturday.
While he has the record at the distance and against elite level fields, there are a few things working against Peter Snowden’s son of Exceed And Excel as they prepare to race in their Aussie swansong.
One thing is the approaching wet weather in Melbourne with experts predicting the course proper at Flemington to be downgraded to a Slow (6).
The other is Helmet’s inside barrier five, into four without emergencies, draw which in such a big field is unlikely to suit the horse’s racing style.
Despite the backlash, Snowden remains confident Helmet has what it takes to become just the second horse in history along with Mahogany (1994) to score the rare Caulfield Guineas – Australian Guineas double.
“He’s done a good job but I firmly believe there is more to come from the horse,” Snowden said this week.
“I don’t think he’s a spent force at all.
“There’s some good races still left in him, for sure.”
We agree, but we don’t believe the Australian Guineas is one of them.
So if not the favourite then who are the Races.com.au team tipping to become the 2012 Australian Guineas winner this weekend?
Having done a detailed 2012 Australian Guineas Form Guide & Betting Analysis earlier in the week, we believe the value bet of the day and the horse with the right kind of form for a Flemington upset is $10 chance through Luxbet #10 Proliferate.
Flemington Race 6 Betting
- Current Favourite: #1 Helmet – $3.20 Luxbet
- Market Mover: #16 Mosheen – $6.50 into $5.50 Luxbet
- Biggest Drifter: #9 Highly Recommended – $14 out to $21 Luxbet
- Roughie of the 16 Starters: #13 First Course – $151 Luxbet
Races.com.au Australian Guineas Tips
- #10 Proliferate from #1 Helmet, #16 Mosheen and #7 That’s The One – Bet now at Luxbet
So what makes Mick Price’s low-key More Than Ready colt Proliferate our pick against a Group 1 field on Saturday?
The facts and stats just work in this horse’s favour for Saturday and here’s why:
- With emergencies out Proliferate will come into barrier seven which is the gate last year’s Australian Guineas winner Shamrocker won from
- They boast the highest Win Rate of the field at 75%, Helmet’s win rate is 54.55%
- They also have the best Place Percentage with 100%, Helmet is nest on 81.82%
- Along with Helmet who has twice won over the mile, Proliferate is also unbeaten over 1600-metres having won a Seymour Handicap last spring
- Prepared by Price who has prepared two previous Australian Guineas champions in Light Fantastic (2008) and Heart Of Dreams (2009)
- Craig Newitt rides and he is one of eight jockeys that boast dual Australian Guineas victories
It will be tight but we believe Helmet will just be nudged out of a successful goodbye.
Crown Oaks winner Mosheen also has plenty of claims, but that disastrous outside gate rules her out of the top two for us.
She has the right form at the track and distance to be competitive and she is a classy filly, but just don’t see her following in Shamrocker’s footsteps for the females this year.
That’s The One is also a nice pick in the markets with a win over Helmet to their name last-start in the CS Hayes, but connections and jockey Craig Williams are concerned how they will go from barrier 14 (into 12).
Whether it is our predicted upset Australian Guineas result you like, or you want to place the sentimental bet on Helmet for his down under farewell, Australia’s leading online bookmaker Luxbet have you covered.
Not only do Luxbet offer the premium metro odds on a Saturday with their ‘Best of the Best’ markets, but they also have an incredible $400 bonus bet waiting for all first-time depositing customers that quote the code BONUSBET!