Despite the historical data saying she can’t win from her horror double-digit gate, Mosheen’s trainer Robert Smerdon remains hopeful that his Crown Oaks winner can go back-to-back for the fillies in the 2012 Australian Guineas on Saturday, and it seems the punters agree.
Since markets opened on the final field for the $750,000 Group 1 Australian Guineas (1600m), running as Flemington Race 6 on Saturday, the definite market mover has been #16 Mosheen.
In the Australian Guineas odds at Luxbet, which are led by easing $3.20 (out from $3.00) favourite Helmet, Fastnet Rock filly Mosheen has been well supported in from $6.50 to $5.50.
The money coming in for the sole filly in this year’s capacity 2012 Australian Guineas field is surprising considering she came up with the extreme outside barrier 20, into 16 if all four emergencies come out before jump time.
While last year’s Australian Guineas winner was Shamrocker, history is against Mosheen as a female three-year-old as Shamrocker was just the third filly from 26 editions of the race to win.
History is also against Mosheen in regards to her Australian Guineas barrier with no winner ever jumping from double-digits.
So what is in Mosheen’s favour?
The weather is one thing with showers in Melbourne likely to see Flemington downgraded to the Slow – Heavy range for Australian Guineas Day on the weekend.
“It’s yet to be determined how the track will play, but we’ve got rain around and there could be an affected track, so it may be that off the fence could end up being better,” Smerdon said.
“It’s hard to pre-empt, but we’ve just got to play the cards we’ve been dealt I guess.
“Danny Nikolic’s ridden her on affected ground and he believes it’s probably a help to her.
“So she gets through it all right, it just depends on how wet it is, but a bit of wet ground wouldn’t be against her I wouldn’t think.”
She also has a win over the track and distance to her name, and a big nine length win in the Group 1 Crown Oaks from last spring her other Flemington win from five attempts.
On track with a first-up win beating That’s The One, who subsequently defeated Helmet in the CS Hayes Stakes, by one and three quarter lengths in the Manfred Stakes (1200m) at Caulfield, Mohseen was last seen going down a nose in the Group 3 The Vanity (1410m).
Smerdon is willing to forgive Mosheen for her last-start loss, and her price in the Luxbet markets suggest many others are doing the same.
“I was initially disappointed, but the way she pulled up from the race told us that she still had fitness to come and then last Saturday’s performance by Shopaholic (to win at Caulfield) probably put more emphasis on the run than we thought at the time,” he said.
“She’s had a number of solid workouts in between and she’s worked well and coped with it well, so I think she gets there pretty fit.
“It is a tough race, you wouldn’t expect an easy one at this level, but I think her form-line through what she’s just been through and the competition puts her right in it.”
Mosheen certainly has her work cut out for him, but nothing in racing, especially a barrier hoodoo is a sure thing!
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