2012 Australian Guineas Form Guide & Betting Facts

The latest elite level of the Melbourne Autumn Racing Carnival is set to run at Flemington Racecourse this Saturday, and below the Races.com.au team have our insider Australian Guineas 2012 form guide analysis and betting preview.

Helmet

Helmet is out to maintain his flawless mile record in the 2012 Australian Guineas this Saturday

While Peter Snowden’s Caulfield Guineas champion Helmet is the clear favourite to take out the $750,000 Group 1 Australian Guineas (16000m) in his final race down under before heading overseas, Luxbet odds on the Exceed And Excel colt are drifting.

With some queries over Helmet’s first-up effort to finish fifth behind a number of fellow Australian Guineas rivals in the Group 3 CS Hayes Stakes (1410m) at Flemington on February 18, the punters have shied away from the favourite with Helmet easing out from $3 to $3.10 at Luxbet.

There are also doubts over whether barrier five (four without emergencies) is really the best place for a horse that likes to roll along without getting caught on the inside.

The other top chances in the Australian Guineas odds at Luxbet are also have a healthy pros and cons list like $5.50 second pick Mosheen who has the outside barrier to overcome.

So can the favourite silence the critics? Can Mosheen add another elite level to her Crown Oaks win from the spring? Or will the Australian Guineas be won by a longer-priced chance such as CS Hayes winner That’s The One ($8 Luxbet)?

See below for our exclusive Australian Guineas form guide and betting facts helping you uncover what the statistics and history say and where the value is at for Flemington Race 6 this Saturday.

Australian Guineas 2012 Form Facts & Betting Stats

  • Last year’s Australian Guineas winner Shamrocker jumped from barrier 7 of 16, was ridden by Glen Boss, came off a fourth in The Mittys Vanity and was just the third filly in 26 years to win
  • #16 Mosheen ($5.50 Luxbet) is the only filly in this year’s Guineas field and she comes off a second in The Vanity while Glen Boss will be aboard #12 Decircles ($17 Luxbet) as he shoots for back-to-back wins in the classic
  • #11 Huegill ($31 Luxbet) is drawn in barrier seven for Saturday, but with emergencies coming out it is #10 Proliferate ($9 Luxbet) who will jump from last year’s winning gate
  • #10 Proliferate also boasts the highest Win Rate of the field with 75.00% followed by #7 That’s The One ($8 Luxbet) with 60.00% and the favourite #1 Helmet ($3.10 Luxbet) with a winning strike rate of 54.55%
  • The favourite #1 Helmet ($3.10 Luxbet) is out to become just the second horse in history to win the Caulfield Guineas – Australian Guineas double joining Mahogany (1993-94)
  • The best Place Percentage belongs to #10 Proliferate and last emergency #20 Shanghai Warrior ($81 Luxbet) with 100% followed by #1 Helmet (81.82%), #16 Mosheen (81.82%) and #7 That’s The One (80%)
  • Only three horses have had previous start at the Track & Distance and the only two to finish in the top three are #9 Highly Recommended (1-0-1-0) and #16 Mosheen (2-1-0-0)
  • Over the 1600-metres #1 Helmet ($3.10 Luxbet) is undefeated with two wins from as many starts, while #10 Proliferate has also won their sole start over the distance
  • Other horses with form over the distance are #3 Sabrage (1-0-0-1), #5 Strike The Stars (1-0-0-1), #9 Highly Recommended (2-0-1-0), #11 Huegill (1-0-0-1), #13 First Course (3-0-1-0), #16 Mosheen (3-1-1-0) and final emergency #20 Shanghai Warrior (1-1-0-0)
  • At Flemington horses that hold an advantage based on their track records are #7 That’s The One ($8 Luxbet) who has won both of their starts at the course to date, #16 Mosheen (5-2-1-0), #2 Sangster (1-1-0-0), #6 Instinction (2-1-0-1) and #9 Highly Recommended (4-1-1-1)
  • Horses that haven’t won at Flemington but who have placed at the track include #12 Decircles (4-0-3-0), #3 Sabrage (3-0-0-1), #4 Adamantium (2-0-0-1), #13 First Course (3-0-2-0) and #17 I Feel Good (2-0-1-0)
  • The advantage is firmly in favour of horses jumping from barriers 1 – 9 as no Australian Guineas winner has ever jumped from double digits and 14 of the past 22 editions of the race featured at least 10 runners
  • Could this be the first year for an Australian Guineas winner to come out of a double-digit gate? #16 Mosheen (20 into 16) and #7 That’s The One (14 into 12) certainly have claims
  • Between 1986 and 2009, 11 Australian Guineas favourites saluted for the punters, including six of the past 15, with Kenny’s Best Pal ($11) in 1993 the only horse to win at double figures during that time
  • The past two Australian Guineas winners, however, have been roughies with Rock Classic ($18, 2010) and Shamrocker ($31, 2011)
  • Mick Price has the chance to join Colin Hayes and Lee Freedman as the most successful Australian Guineas trainers in history with four victories, #6 Instinction ($8.50 Luxbet) and #10 Proliferate ($9 Luxbet) chances to follow in the hoofsteps of Price’s previous champs Light Fantastic (2008) and Heart Of Dreams (2009)
  • #6 Instinction (Craig Newitt) is one of three horses in this year’s Guineas to be ridden by one of the eight jockeys that co-hold the race riding record of dual wins along with #3 Sabrage (Damien Oliver) and #9 Highly Recommended (Noel Callow)
  • Other horses to be ridden by a former Australian Guineas winning jockey are then #7 That’s The One (Craig Williams), #8 Fontelina (Michael Rodd), #12 Decircles (Glen Boss) and #16 Mosheen (Danny Nikolic)
  • Along with Mick Price’s two, other hopefuls prepared by a former Australian Guineas winning trainer are the Danny O’Brien-trained duo #4 Adamantium ($21 Luxbet) and #12 Decircles ($17 Luxbet), and #18 Niconoise (David Hayes)

Think you’ve narrowed down the winning Australian Guineas trifecta based on the above betting facts and form guide statistics?

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2012 Australian Guineas Form Guide

Flemington Race 6 – 4:00pm – 03/03/2012

No. Horse Trainer Jockey Br. Wgt. Age/Sex Days API Career Win% Place% Last 6
1. HELMET Peter Snowden Kerrin Mc Evoy 5 56.5 3yoC 14 $146,118 11: 6 0 3 54.55% 81.82% 3118×5
2. SANGSTER T L Busuttin Mark Zahra 13 56.5 3yoG 21 $112,872 9: 3 2 1 33.33% 66.67% 8321×8
3. SABRAGE M D Moroney Damien Oliver 9 56.5 3yoC 14 $40,046 7: 2 0 2 28.57% 57.14% 4313×8
4. ADAMANTIUM D T O’brien Dwayne Dunn 6 56.5 3yoC 7 $19,933 9: 2 1 4 22.22% 77.78% 15×433
5. STRIKE THE STARS A J Cummings Nicholas Hall 16 56.5 3yoG 21 $22,238 8: 1 2 1 12.50% 50.00% 2315×5
6. INSTINCTION M G Price Craig Newitt 1 56.5 3yoC 14 $22,113 8: 3 1 1 37.50% 62.50% x21113
7. THAT’S THE ONE C and C Alderson Craig Williams 14 56.5 3yoG 14 $34,813 5: 3 1 0 60.00% 80.00% 116×21
8. FONTELINA A J Cummings Michael Rodd 19 56.5 3yoG 7 $21,131 8: 3 2 0 37.50% 62.50% 79×121
9. HIGHLY RECOMMENDED P G Moody Noel Callow 4 56.5 3yoC 14 $14,933 10: 1 1 5 10.00% 70.00% 432433
10. PROLIFERATE M G Price Michael Walker 8 56.5 3yoC 21 $35,738 4: 3 1 0 75.00% 100.00% 111×2
11. HUEGILL P G Moody Luke Nolen 7 56.5 3yoC 21 $19,498 7: 2 0 2 28.57% 57.14% 113×67
12. DECIRCLES D T O’brien Glen Boss 18 56.5 3yoC 14 $16,871 7: 1 3 0 14.29% 57.14% x1x252
13. FIRST COURSE K M Keys Steven Arnold 12 56.5 3yoC 10 $10,561 10: 1 3 1 10.00% 50.00% 2246×4
14. MISTER MILTON Norman Waymouth Ben Melham 2 56.5 3yoC 21 $10,395 11: 1 2 1 9.09% 36.36% 8×2174
15. BOMBALATOMBA C F Hyland Brad Rawiller 10 56.5 3yoG 21 $8,640 7: 2 1 0 28.57% 42.86% x17415
16. MOSHEEN R W Smerdon Danny Nikolic 20 54.5 3yoF 14 $148,518 11: 4 3 2 36.36% 81.82% 261×12
17. I FEEL GOOD F Stockdale Not Notified 15 56.5 3yoG 126 $9,754 6: 0 1 0 0.00% 16.67% x4947x
18. NICONOISE D A Hayes Not Notified 11 56.5 3yoC 28 $7,730 5: 2 0 0 40.00% 40.00% 1709×1
19. TONED Robert Hickmott Steven King 3 56.5 3yoC 14 $5,050 7: 2 1 0 28.57% 42.86% 115×66
20. SHANGHAI WARRIOR P T Hyland Steven Arnold 17 56.5 3yoC 10 $12,510 4: 2 2 0 50.00% 100.00% 2×121

*Form Guide Credit Ladbrokes.com.au

*Fixed Win Odds correct at time of publication – see Luxbet for updates and to bet now!

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