One of the best races running around the country this Saturday is Rosehill’s Christmas Cup 2011, the Races.com.au’s exclusive form guide analysis and betting tips for which can be found below.
Due to jump at 4:25pm (local time) as Rosehill Race 6, the $100,000 Stow Australia Pty Ltd Christmas Cup (2400m) field currently features 11 hopefuls with trainer Tim Martin withdrawing his galloper, 2009 Christmas Cup winner Scouting Wide (#3) from contention on Thursday.
Left in running for the Christmas Cup win this year is an intriguing field featuring two 58kg top-weights in veteran seven-year-olds Solid Billing and Strike One, a Melbourne raider shooting for their third on the trot in Sea Galleon and a number of horses coming off eye-catching runs in the Frank Underwood Cup including runner-up Yulalona.
So where is the money at in the Christmas Cup odds 2011?
Will the wet conditions in Sydney give $2.90 Luxbet favourite Sea Galleon the advantage? Or can another known wet-tracker at double figures cause an upset?
Having studied the Christmas Cup field and form, the Races.com.au below have the best facts and stats on the race to guide your punting this festive season.
2011 Christmas Cup Form Guide & Betting Facts
- Last year’s Christmas Cup winner Bellagio Wynn came off an unplaced run in the Canberra Cup, jumped from barrier eight with Glyn Schofield in the mount and is from the Chris Waller stables
- This year Chris Waller will be represented by #2 Strike One ($9 Luxbet), barrier eight is occupied by #11 Nextanix ($14 Luxbet) and Schofield rides #8 Sea Galleon ($2.90F Luxbet)
- Meanwhile, horses coming off unplaced runs (fifth or worse) are #1 Solid Billing , #2 Strike One and #6 Gazza Guru who finished fifth, seventh and eighth respectively in the Frank Underwood Cup (1900m) at Canterbury on November 26
- Two last-start winners are engaged with #8 Sea Galleon (2400m, Sandown, 26/11/2011) and #10 Assertive Billy (2200m, Warwick Farm, 19/11/2011), both are shooting for three straight
- #5 Yulalona ($3.80 Luxbet) boasts the highest Win Rate of the field with 26.67% followed by #9 Merensky Reef (22.22%) and #10 Assertive Billy (20.00%)
- The best Place Rates belong to #9 Merensky Reef (55.56%), #5 Yulalona (53.33%), #2 Strike One (52.38%) and #7 Scottish Border (52.00%)
- The freshest horse in the field coming off the longest break is #10 Assertive Billy (21 days)
- The only horses to have won or placed over the Track & Distance before are #2 Strike One (5-1-0-1) and #9 Merensky Reef (2-0-1-0)
- The 2400 metres is a query for a number of horses in the field, but those proven at the distance are #1 Solid Billing (4-1-0-0), #2 Strike One (10-1-3-2), #8 Sea Galleon (1-1-0-0) and #9 Merensky Reef (3-0-1-1)
- The Rosehill Track specialist here is #2 Strike One (13-3-3-2)
- With a Slow – Heavy track predicted it is important to look at the wet track form of the field and those with most experience and best records in these conditions are #1 Solid Billing ($18 Luxbet), #2 Strike One ($9 Luxbet), #5 Yulalona ($3.80 Luxbet), #6 Gazza Guru ($31 Luxbet), #7 Scottish Border ($9 Luxbet), #8 Sea Galleon ($2.90 Luxbet) and #9 Merensky Reef ($13 Luxbet)
Based on the above, the Races.com.au team is tipping Strike One to bounce back from their last-start seventh in the Frank Underwood, the veteran to relish the step up in distance and the soft conditions to hand Waller back-to-back wins and add to their dominant Rosehill race record.
Races.com.au Christmas Cup 2011 Tips
- #2 Strike One from #11 Nextanix, #5 Yulalona and #8 Sea Galleon – Bet now at Luxbet
- Roughie Pick: #10 Assertive Billy @ $26 Luxbet
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2011 Christmas Cup Field & Form Guide
Rosehill Race 6 – 10/11/2011
|1.||SOLID BILLING||C E Ritchie||Jay Ford||7||58||7yoG||14||$6,864||43: 7 3 6||16.28%||37.21%||03×005|
|2.||STRIKE ONE||C J Waller||Nash Rawiller||10||58||8yoG||14||$10,105||42: 8 9 5||19.05%||52.38%||743×17|
|3.||SCOUTING WIDE||T R Martin||Taylor Lovelock-Wiggins (a)||11||56.5||7yoG||7||$13,383||27: 4 8 4||14.81%||59.26%||38×566|
|4.||COUNT ENCOSTA||John Thompson||Brenton Avdulla||2||54||5yoG||14||$8,941||26: 3 1 1||11.54%||19.23%||0x8464|
|5.||YULALONA||Peter Snowden||Corey Brown||6||53.5||4yoG||14||$14,487||15: 4 3 1||26.67%||53.33%||14×962|
|6.||GAZZA GURU||S Farley||Josh Adams (a)||3||53||7yoG||14||$4,541||57: 6 8 7||10.53%||36.84%||333308|
|7.||SCOTTISH BORDER||G L Frazer||Mitchell Bell||9||53||5yoG||14||$10,832||25: 4 3 6||16.00%||52.00%||0x6023|
|8.||SEA GALLEON||C and C Alderson||Glyn Schofield||5||53||5yoG||14||$9,458||19: 4 1 3||21.05%||42.11%||x15711|
|9.||MERENSKY REEF||Ms G Waterhouse||Tommy Berry||1||53||6yoG||7||$8,918||18: 4 2 4||22.22%||55.56%||681354|
|10.||ASSERTIVE BILLY||R S Englebrecht||Shaun Guymer (a)||12||53||6yoG||21||$4,489||40: 8 1 5||20.00%||35.00%||817211|
|11.||NEXTANIX||K J Parker||Jeff Penza||8||53||4yoG||7||$6,404||14: 2 3 2||14.29%||50.00%||421252|
|12.||SHADOW MINISTER||G K White||Nathan Berry||4||53||5yoM||10||$5,674||27: 2 7 2||7.41%||40.74%||575844|
*Form Guide Credit Ladbrokes.com.au