Form Guide & Tips – Festival Stakes 2011

The countdown until Christmas is on and Sydney’s Rosehill Racecourse gets into the festive spirit on Saturday with the running of the 2011 Festival Stakes, the Races.com.au team’s exclusive form guide analysis and tips for which can be found below.

Due to jump at 4:35pm (local time) as Rosehill Race 6, the $100,000 Listed Festival Stakes (1500m) is shaping up as a top-class clash of many of the summer’s best gallopers.

With the field of 16 featuring a trio of last-start winners, three Chris Waller-trained hopefuls, a duo of well-backed runners from the stables of Gai Waterhouse including Luxbet favourite King Lionheart as well as many other exciting summer hopes the Festival Stakes 2011 is a must watch and must bet on event this weekend.

So will it be a race for favourite backers with one of the three single-figure chances taking out the honours? Or is there value to be found in the Festival Stakes field and markets with a longer-priced hopeful scoring an upset?

To save our readers time, we have done the form analysis and studied the stats to uncover the best Festival Stakes bets to make at Luxbet this Saturday.

2011 Festival Stakes Form Guide & Betting Facts

  • Last year’s Festival Stakes winner Dysphonia came off a third at Rosehill, and jumped from barrier five with Tommy Berry in the mount
  • Two horses this year come off a last-start third with #9 Lebrechaun (1400m, Gundagai, 11/11/2011) and #7 Fibrillation (1400m, Warwick Farm, 19/11/2011) – paying $16 and $10 respectively in the Luxbet odds
  • Barrier five this year belongs to #11 Circle Of Power ($14 into $11 Luxbet), one of the major market movers having run a close second at the track and distance last start
  • #11 Circle Of Power also drops back nicely in the weights from 57kg to 53kg, which explains why there is money coming in for them
  • Last year’s winning jockey Tommy Berry partners with #10 Kontiki Park ($8.50 Luxbet) this year looking to go back-to-back in the race, Kontiki Park one of two runners for Gai Waterhouse
  • #10 Kontiki Park (1400m, Warwick Farm, 19/11/2011) is also one of three last-start winners in the Festival Stakes field along with #14 Viva Las (1400m, Gundagai, 11/11/2011) and #15 Lightinthenite (1500m, Rosehill, 12/11/2011)
  • The best Win Rate of the field belongs to #15 Ligtinthenite ($6 Luxbet) with 66.67% followed by #1 King Lionheart ($4.80 Luxbet favourite) with 46.15%
  • Horses with the highest Place Rates are #15 Lightinthenite (83.33%), #1 King Lionheart (76.92%) and #10 Kontiki Park (65.00%)
  • Horses that have won over the Track & Distance previously are #1 King Lionheart (3-2-1-0), #4 Tromso (1-1-0-0), #3 Altered Boy (5-1-0-0), #11 Circle Of Power (5-1-1-0), #14 Viva Las (2-1-0-0) and #15 Lightinthenite (1-1-0-0)
  • Looking at records over the distance (1500m) the best performers are #1 King Lionheart (5-3-2-0), #11 Circle Of Power (10-3-3-0), #6 Mentality (5-1-2-1), #10 Kontiki Park (3-1-1-0), #4 Tromso (1-1-0-0), #15 Lightinthenite (1-1-0-0),  #3 Altered Boy (5-1-0-0) and #14 Viva Las (3-1-0-0)
  • Racing at Rosehill is a distinct advantage for horses with a good record at the track including #1 King Lionheart (5-2-2-0), #2 Monton (7-3-0-1), #4 Tromso (10-3-3-1), #6 Mentality (21-3-4-3), #7 Fibrillation (4-1-2-0) and #15 Lightinthenite (3-1-0-1)

Races.com.au Festival Stakes 2011 Tips

  • #15 Lightinthenite from #1 King Lionheart and #11 Circle Of Power – Bet now at Luxbet

To back our Festival Stakes Trifecta tip, or lock in your own exclusive selections, jump over to Luxbet – the online bookie giving punters a better go.

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2011 Festival Stakes Field & Form Guide

Rosehill Race 6 – 03/12/2011

# Horse Trainer Jockey Br. Wgt. Age/Sex Days API Career Win% Place% Last 6
1. KING LIONHEART Ms G Waterhouse Nash Rawiller 4 58 5yoG 63 $22,091 13: 6 3 1 46.15% 76.92% 10×110
2. MONTON R J Quinton Chris O’Brien 1 55.5 5yoG 56 $16,487 18: 4 0 2 22.22% 33.33% 60×395
3. ALTERED BOY C J Waller Hugh Bowman 10 54.5 6yoG 14 $10,600 48: 8 7 3 16.67% 37.50% 880×48
4. TROMSO C J Waller Daniel Ganderton 15 54.5 5yoG 14 $16,087 19: 4 6 1 21.05% 57.89% 205×36
5. ALEXANDER OF HALES C J Waller Kathy O’Hara 16 54 8yoH 266 $23,218 33: 3 5 4 9.09% 36.36% 84422x
6. MENTALITY “M, W and J Hawkes Jay Ford 13 54 8yoG 14 $37,493 57: 8 8 5 14.04% 36.84% 08×570
7. FIBRILLATION T R Martin Blake Spriggs (a) 7 53 4yoM 14 $21,884 11: 2 2 2 18.18% 54.55% 2419×3
8. MISS KEEPSAKE Joseph Pride Nathan Berry 3 53 5yoM 14 $17,133 23: 4 3 4 17.39% 47.83% x34325
9. LEBRECHAUN Matthew Dale Peter Robl 11 53 6yoG 22 $8,209 24: 7 3 5 29.17% 62.50% 3600×3
10. KONTIKI PARK Ms G Waterhouse Tommy Berry 14 53 6yoG 14 $10,010 20: 5 7 1 25.00% 65.00% 2220×1
11. CIRCLE OF POWER Rod Craig Christian Reith 5 53 4yoG 21 $8,601 28: 4 6 5 14.29% 53.57% 114×52
12. KIMBERLEY KID David Payne Chad Schofield (a) 8 53 5yoG 14 $8,405 41: 4 8 5 9.76% 41.46% 20×542
13. WITHOUT COMPROMISE Kevin Moses Shaun Guymer (a) 6 53 7yoG 14 $12,322 15: 3 3 0 20.00% 40.00% 2x5x44
14. VIVA LAS N J and C Voigt Matthew Cahill 2 53 5yoM 22 $7,480 25: 5 2 1 20.00% 32.00% 796461
15. LIGHTINTHENITE J A O’shea Josh Adams (a) 9 53 4yoG 21 $18,367 6: 4 0 1 66.67% 83.33% 1×1631
16. CHATEAU FORT Paul Messara Jeff Penza 12 53 4yoH 14 $13,313 8: 3 0 2 37.50% 62.50% 130×00

*Form Guide Credit – Ladbrokes.com.au