The 2011 Ballarat Cup betting is wide open with the Peter Moody trained Rothera ($4.40) favourite with Luxbet.
The weight of having the leading trainer and jockey Luke Nolen on top of his recent win in the Eclipse Stakes at Sandown Hillside is on everyone’s mind.
And yesterday’s rain at Ballarat will do Rothera no harm.
The track now rated a slow six, plays right into his strength but there is a lagging problem.
Rothera is jumping up to 2200m for the first time in the 2011 Ballarat Cup.
It is 400m further than he has ever travelled and he needs to carry 59kg, a weight he has never won carrying.
It is enough doubt to have many looking elsewhere for the 2011 Ballarat Cup winner.
Luxbet‘s fixed price service lets punters on early and the Mike Moroney-trained Tinseltown at $12 with Luxbet looks fine each value.The bay is having his third run from a spell - a key in his previous preparations and for today’s 2011 Ballarat Cup .
His record reads seven starts, when first and second up, for no wins – six starts third up for three wins.
He is a dual winner on slow ground and comes into the 2011 Ballarat Cup fresh.
The well weighted horse in the 2011 Ballarat Cup is the Pat Carey trained Ulundi Luxbet $8.
He finished within two lengths of Rothera in the Eclipse and was taking ground from him in the final 100m.
He is 2-1/2kg better off in weights and likes a wet track.
He has won up to 2000m but his breeding Helenus from Willow (By Woodman) suggests he will actually enjoy the extra ground – not a negative about the him.
Rival trainer Robert Smerdon will be hoping to win a second hometown Cup with Paddy O’Reilly an $8 chance with Luxbet.
He drew widest in 17 but now the track is wet, being wide may prove the place to be.
Smerdon won the Ballarat Cup with McGuane in the 90s but has found a way to be beaten since.
Paddy O’Reilly comes into the race with a good last start third behind Ironstein in the Queen Elizabeth (2500m) at Flemington on the last day of the 2011 Flemington Spring Racing Carnival.
Not many horses have actually raced at Ballarat including Rothera, Illustrous Blue Luxbet $61, Tinseltown, Paddy O’Reilly, Boom N Zoom Luxbet $15, Red Buttons Luxbet $16, Stole Luxbet $9, Musical Hit Luxbet $9.50. Ulundi, Noble Destiny Luxbet $201 – it could prove a downfall but then one may take to the track like duck to water in the Ballarat Cup 2011 .
And talk of water, one who doesn’t particularly like it wet is Luxbet $5.50 is second favourite Domesky.
He is coming out of a unplaced run in the 2011 Caulfield Cup prior to a good second to Musical Hit in a 2000m at Flemington on November 5 – that is good form for this.
Domesky has raced at Ballarat but finished a distant second over an unsuitable 1200m in his earlier days.
The big watch will be on the track condition where Domesky is concerned.
If it worsen the folks at Luxbet may drift him out further, if it dries up he could easily come and start the 2011 Ballarat Cup favourite.
The forecast is for a sunny day – but keep watch for any track rating variation.
His last start conqueror Musical Hit, if not in the same boat, is at least in the same fleet.
He has never won on slow or heavy but there is evidence he can at least handle it
TIPS
We like Ulundi from Tinseltown and Paddy O’Reilly.
ADD
Adding more for the first four?
Then stick in Domesky and Stole and then Rothera.
Stole, just now again puts in a good one.
She beat home Avienus last start when runner-up to Vintedge in the Group 2 Matriarch (2000m).
She tends to keep running and is far from hopeless.
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| No | Last 10 | Horse | Trainer | Jockey | Barrier | Weight | Penalty | Hcp Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X891X79901 | ROTHERA | Peter G Moody | Luke Nolen | 8 | 59kg | 104 | |
| 2 | 5X060X9600 | ILLUSTRIOUS BLUE (GB) | Luke Oliver | Jamie Mott | 2 | 58kg | 102 | |
| 3 | 07F2631XL8 | TINSELTOWN (NZ) | Michael Moroney | Ms Lisa Cropp | 10 | 58kg | 102 | |
| 4 | 3411X99273 | PADDY O’REILLY (NZ) | Robert Smerdon | Craig Newitt | 17 | 56.5kg | 99 | |
| 5 | 31488X7140 | BOOM ’N’ ZOOM | Ken Keys | Lincoln Coffey | 11 | 56kg | 98 | |
| 6 | 4956X00426 | RED BUTTONS | Michael Kent | Dean Yendall | 3 | 55.5kg | 97 | |
| 7 | 109X573702 | DOMESKY | Michael Kent | Brad Rawiller | 6 | 55kg | 95 | |
| 8 | 123X062420 | FOXHAM | Tony McEvoy | Ms Michelle Payne | 1 | 53.5kg | 89 | |
| 9 | 40135X4002 | STOLE (NZ) | Brian Jenkins | Ben Melham | 14 | 53.5kg | 89 | |
| 10 | 8X000X6450 | CHARTREUX | David Hayes | Stephen Baster | 7 | 53.5kg | 86 | |
| 11 | X080X09035 | APPREHEND | Tony Vasil | Jordan Mallyon (a) | 16 | 53.5kg | 85 | |
| 12 | 3X2053X441 | MUSICAL HIT | Ken Keys | Dwayne Dunn | 12 | 53.5kg | 85 | |
| 13 | 79126X1519 | SEAN BAILE MOR | Todd Balfour | Jake Noonan (a) | 15 | 53.5kg | 82 | |
| 14 | 9890X56183 | NIPTIOUS | Danny Curran | Craig Robertson | 9 | 53.5kg | 80 | |
| 15 | 631X581033 | ULUNDI | Pat Carey | Chris Symons | 4 | 53.5kg | 78 | |
| 16 | 1X20160X18 | NOBLE DESTINY | Todd Balfour | Thomas Sadler (a) | 5 | 53.5kg | 66 | |
| 17 | 9353424333 | DORSODURO | Kelvin Bourke | Jacob Rule (a) | 13 | 53.5kg | 64 |
