2011 Ballarat Cup betting preview and tips

November 20, 2011

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2011 Ballarat Cup betting preview and tips

The 2011 Ballarat Cup betting is wide open with the Peter Moody trained Rothera ($4.40) favourite with Luxbet.

The weight of having the leading trainer and jockey Luke Nolen on top of his recent win in the Eclipse Stakes at Sandown Hillside is on everyone’s mind.

And yesterday’s rain at Ballarat will do Rothera no harm.

The track now rated a slow six, plays right into his strength but there is a lagging problem.

Rothera is jumping up to 2200m for the first time in the 2011 Ballarat Cup.

It is 400m further than he has ever travelled and he needs to carry 59kg, a weight he has never won carrying.

It is enough doubt to have many looking elsewhere for the 2011 Ballarat Cup winner.

Luxbet‘s fixed price service lets punters on early and the Mike Moroney-trained Tinseltown  at $12 with Luxbet looks fine each value.

The bay is having his third run from a spell –  a key in his previous preparations and for today’s 2011 Ballarat Cup .

His record reads seven starts, when first and second up, for no wins – six starts third up for three wins.

He is a dual winner on slow ground and comes into the 2011 Ballarat Cup fresh.

The well weighted horse in the 2011 Ballarat Cup is the Pat Carey trained Ulundi Luxbet $8.

He finished within two lengths of Rothera in the Eclipse and was taking ground from him in the final 100m.

He is 2-1/2kg better off in weights and likes a wet track.

He has won up to 2000m but his breeding Helenus from Willow (By Woodman) suggests he will actually enjoy the extra ground – not a  negative about the him.

Rival trainer Robert Smerdon will be hoping to win a second hometown Cup with Paddy O’Reilly an $8 chance with Luxbet.

He drew widest in 17 but now the track is wet, being wide may prove the place to be.

Smerdon won the Ballarat Cup with McGuane in the 90s but has found a way to be beaten since.

Paddy O’Reilly comes into the race with a good last start third behind Ironstein in the Queen Elizabeth (2500m) at Flemington on the last day of the 2011 Flemington Spring Racing Carnival.

Not many horses have actually raced at Ballarat including Rothera, Illustrous Blue Luxbet $61, Tinseltown, Paddy O’Reilly, Boom N Zoom Luxbet $15, Red Buttons Luxbet $16, Stole Luxbet $9, Musical Hit Luxbet $9.50. Ulundi, Noble Destiny Luxbet $201 – it could prove a downfall but then one may take to the track like duck to water in the Ballarat Cup 2011 .

And talk of water, one who doesn’t particularly like it wet is Luxbet $5.50 is second favourite Domesky.

He is coming out of a unplaced run in the 2011 Caulfield Cup prior to a good second to Musical Hit in a 2000m at Flemington on November 5 – that is good form for this.

Domesky has raced at Ballarat but finished a distant second over an unsuitable 1200m in his earlier days.

The big watch will be on the track condition where Domesky is concerned.

If it worsen the folks at Luxbet may drift him out further, if it dries up he could easily come and start the 2011 Ballarat Cup favourite.

The forecast is for a sunny day – but keep watch for any track rating variation.

His last start conqueror Musical Hit,  if not in the same boat, is at least in the same fleet.

He has never won on slow or heavy but there is evidence he can at least handle it

TIPS

We like Ulundi from Tinseltown and Paddy O’Reilly.

ADD

Adding more for the first four?

Then stick in Domesky and Stole and then Rothera.

Stole,  just now again puts in a good one.

She beat home Avienus last start when runner-up to Vintedge in the Group 2 Matriarch (2000m).

She tends to keep running and is far from hopeless.

The Melbourne Spring Racing Carnival is over but every race has a winner is an opportunity. That is why Luxbet is still helping out with the great deals.Luxbet have a HOT, summer betting special for all new customers. Simply sign up, deposit and quote the code  BONUSBET when prompted to receive a $400 bonus bet! Ask or read the conditions and start winning with Luxbet

Race 8 – 4:12PM Sportsbet.com.au Ballarat Cup (2200 METRES)
Of $150,000.1st $90,000, 2nd $27,000, 3rd $13,500, 4th $6,750, 5th $3,750, 6th $3,000, 7th $3,000, 8th $3,000 LISTED
Handicap, Minimum Weight 53.5kg, Apprentices cannot claim.Field Limit: 18 + 4 EM

 

No Last 10 Horse Trainer Jockey Barrier Weight Penalty Hcp Rating
1 X891X79901 ROTHERA Peter G Moody Luke Nolen 8 59kg 104
2 5X060X9600 ILLUSTRIOUS BLUE (GB) Luke Oliver Jamie Mott 2 58kg 102
3 07F2631XL8 TINSELTOWN (NZ) Michael Moroney Ms Lisa Cropp 10 58kg 102
4 3411X99273 PADDY O’REILLY (NZ) Robert Smerdon Craig Newitt 17 56.5kg 99
5 31488X7140 BOOM ’N’ ZOOM Ken Keys Lincoln Coffey 11 56kg 98
6 4956X00426 RED BUTTONS Michael Kent Dean Yendall 3 55.5kg 97
7 109X573702 DOMESKY Michael Kent Brad Rawiller 6 55kg 95
8 123X062420 FOXHAM Tony McEvoy Ms Michelle Payne 1 53.5kg 89
9 40135X4002 STOLE (NZ) Brian Jenkins Ben Melham 14 53.5kg 89
10 8X000X6450 CHARTREUX David Hayes Stephen Baster 7 53.5kg 86
11 X080X09035 APPREHEND Tony Vasil Jordan Mallyon (a) 16 53.5kg 85
12 3X2053X441 MUSICAL HIT Ken Keys Dwayne Dunn 12 53.5kg 85
13 79126X1519 SEAN BAILE MOR Todd Balfour Jake Noonan (a) 15 53.5kg 82
14 9890X56183 NIPTIOUS Danny Curran Craig Robertson 9 53.5kg 80
15 631X581033 ULUNDI Pat Carey Chris Symons 4 53.5kg 78
16 1X20160X18 NOBLE DESTINY Todd Balfour Thomas Sadler (a) 5 53.5kg 66
17 9353424333 DORSODURO Kelvin Bourke Jacob Rule (a) 13 53.5kg 64

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Racing materials, including fields, form and results, is subject to copyright which is owned by RA and other parties working with it. Full copyright notice.

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