Murwillumbah trainer Matthew Dunn is looking...
It is a wide open betting market for the 2011 Sandown Cup this Saturday, the second edition of the end-of-season two-mile showdown to be contested by 10 stayers half of which are at single figures to win, and below you will find the Races.com.au’s comprehensive Sandown Cup form guide analysis and tips.
Set to run as Sandown Race 3 at 1:30pm (AEDT) the $125,000 Sandown Cup (3200m) has attracted a strong field of genuine gallopers making for an intriguing race both on paper and hopefully on track on Saturday.
With five last-start winners, two 57kg topweights and five gallopers under $10 in the Luxbet markets, the Sandown Cup is perhaps the hardest race on the Sandown Classic Day program to pick the winner of.
So below the Races.com.au team take a look at the Sandown Cup betting markets, odds, field and form guide to uncover the best selections to lock in at Luxbet.
2011 Sandown Cup Odds
Norsqui has opened as the $3 favourite in the Sandown Cup markets at Luxbet, Walter McSahne’s last-start Melbourne Cup Day winner out for back-to-back metro wins in Melbourne.
Following Norsqui in the odds are then by Jumpin Jack Cash ($4.20) coming off a huge five length win over 3000 metres at Moonee Valley, the Robert Smerdon-trained Olympic Win ($4.80) who ran third to Norsqui last-start, David Hayes’ Galileo six-year-old Reprisal ($5.50) and consistent mare Our Serena ($7.50).
|1||Norsqui (10)||3.00 Luxbet|
|2||Olympic Win (3)||4.80 Luxbet|
|3||Reprisal (7)||5.50 Luxbet|
|4||Our Serena (6)||7.50 Luxbet|
|5||Crafty Cruiser (2)||21.00 Luxbet|
|6||Jumpin Jack Cash (4)||4.20 Luxbet|
|7||Debecca (1)||51.00 Luxbet|
|8||Affinis (9)||35.00 Luxbet|
|9||Capriev (8)||151.00 Luxbet|
|10||Morning Raid (5)||51.00 Luxbet|
2011 Sandown Cup Form Guide Facts
So is this a race to stick with the favourites? Or should punters go for value with one of the double figure outsiders in the markets?
There is not much to go on in the way of historical facts for the Sandown Cup as the race was only inaugurated last year, but it is still important to take a look at the form guide facts.
Having analysed the 2011 Sandown Cup field and form guide, the Races.com.au team discovered the following:
- Last year’s winner Macedonian jumped from barrier five of 10; this year #10 Morning Raid ($51 Luxbet) has drawn gate five
- Macedonian came off a win in the Lavazza Long Black Handicap on Melbourne Cup Day; this year #1 Norsqui ($3 Luxbet) vies for the same double
- Along with Norsqui the other last-start winners in the race are #6 Jumpin Jack Cash (3000m, Moonee Valley, 28/10/2011), #7 Debecca (2400m, Mornington, 30/10/2011), #9 Capriev (2100m, Corowa, 01/11/2011) and #10 Morning Raid (2400m, Pakenham, 03/11/2011)
- #1 Norsqui boasts the best Win Rate by far with 28.57%, followed by #6 Jumpin Jack Cash (19.05%) and #3 Reprisal (17.14%)
- The highest Place Percentages belong to #6 Jumpin Jack Cash (71.43%), #1 Norsqui (52.38%), #5 Crafty Cruiser (47.62%) and #2 Olympic Win (45.16%)
- Veterans of the field are #7 Debecca and #8 Affinis, both eight-year-old mares
- The third mare in contention is #4 Our Serena ($7.50 Luxbet)
- The sole four-year-old in contention is #5 Crafty Cruiser ($21 Luxbet)
- Horses to have won at the Track before are #1 Norsqui (1-1-0-0), #3 Reprisal (4-1-0-0), #5 Crafty Cruiser (1-1-0-0) and #8 Affinis (1-1-0-0)
- While they haven’t won at Sandown previously, #6 Jumpin Jack Cash has a strong record here with one second and a third from three starts
- The only gallopers to have run over the 3200 metres before are #1 Norsqui (1-0-0-1), #2 Olympic Win (1-0-0-0) and #4 Our Serena (1-0-0-0)
Based on the above the Races.com.au team are sticking with the Sandown Cup favourite and have Norsqui rated special to win, and are tipping them to beat home Jumpin Jack Cash and Crafty Cruiser, both having had experience at the track and boasting solid career consistency.
2011 Sandown Cup Tip
- #1 Norsqui from #6 Jumpin Jack Cash and #5 Crafty Cruiser – Bet now at Luxbet
Visit Luxbet now to lock in our Sandown Cup Trifecta Tip at the best prices.
2011 Sandown Cup Field & Form Guide
|1.||NORSQUI||W N Mcshane||Chris Symons||10||57||5yoG||11||$6,969||21: 6 4 1||28.57%||52.38%||3×4161|
|2.||OLYMPIC WIN||R W Smerdon||Mark Zahra||3||57||6yoG||11||$6,809||31: 5 5 4||16.13%||45.16%||007353|
|3.||REPRISAL||D A Hayes||Brenton Avdulla||7||55||6yoG||14||$6,470||35: 6 5 2||17.14%||37.14%||982146|
|4.||OUR SERENA||P G Carey||Craig Williams||6||54.5||5yoM||11||$4,446||31: 2 2 7||6.45%||35.48%||770345|
|5.||CRAFTY CRUISER||B I Stanaway||Lisa Cropp||2||54.5||4yoG||11||$3,279||21: 3 2 5||14.29%||47.62%||151230|
|6.||JUMPIN JACK CASH||Patrick Payne||Michelle Payne||4||54.5||6yoG||15||$3,841||21: 4 6 5||19.05%||71.43%||123361|
|7.||DEBECCA||Stephen Hutchinson||Craig Newitt||1||54.5||8yoM||13||$1,583||41: 6 4 3||14.63%||31.71%||904341|
|8.||AFFINIS||T M Carson||Jarrod Todd||9||54.5||8yoM||15||$1,134||62: 4 8 12||6.45%||38.71%||155633|
|9.||CAPRIEV||Martin Stein||Cameron Quilty||8||54.5||5yoG||11||$838||27: 3 1 1||11.11%||18.52%||635411|
|10.||MORNING RAID||R E Laing||Not Notified||5||54.5||5yoH||9||$1,058||8: 1 0 0||12.50%||12.50%||8×8061|
*Fixed Win Odds provided by Luxbet and subject to change
*Form Guide Credit Ladbrokes.com.au
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