The 2011 Patinack Farm Classic is one of two Group 1 showdowns bringing the Melbourne Cup Carnival to a close at Flemington this Saturday, and while Black Caviar will win, the question then becomes which two horses will get closest to the undefeated queen and finish off the Patinack Farm Classic Trifecta.
Having studied the Patinack Farm Classic Field and Form Guide, the Races.com.au team have also had a look back over the historical stats and had a look at the race replays of Black Caviar’s rivals in their last starts to help us make our two-three selections for the $1 million sprint.
Below are our exclusive Patinack Farm Classic tips, as well as our roughie selection, because we always love to throw a sneaky dollar on an underdog through Luxbet.
2011 Patinack Farm Classic Tips
Flemington Race 5 Betting – 05/11/2011
1st: #3 Black Caviar
$1.05 to Win at Luxbet
She is the mare that needs no introduction and really, we don’t have to spell out all the reasons why Black Caviar has this one in the bag and why she will go back-to-back in the Patinack soaring to her 16th consecutive career victory.
Saturday could possibly be the last start at Flemington for Moody’s ace asset, so don’t miss out on your chance to back the best at a price that may be short but that is still better than bank interest at Luxbet!
She is 15 from 15, faces an inferior field of just six rivals, is five from five at Flemington, 11 form 11 at the distance, and she is a superstar.
2nd: #5 Mid Summer Music
$26 to Win at Luxbet
Huge gap in the Patinack Farm Classic odds from first elect to second, and deservedly so. But we are sticking with the bookies with this one and are tipping Moody to secure the Patinack Farm Classic Exacta with smart six-year-old Mid Summer Music.
She comes off a sixth to Sister Madly in the Group 2 Salinger Stakes (1200m), a better effort than it looks considering she jumped from double digits and was only beaten one and a quarter lengths.
Ben Melham, who replaced the suspended Luke Nolen to ride Black Caviar to victory in this 12 months ago, gets the ride.
Mid Summer Music also boasts the second highest win rate behind her glamour stablemate with 52.95% and the 1200 metres is her pet distance, she has won five from nine over it and run second once.
3rd: #2 Buffering
$31 to Win at Luxbet
Was a real toss up for us here whether to keep following the Patinack Farm Classic betting markets and go with the third elect to run third, or go out on a limb and say the trifecta belongs to Moody with #6 Curtana ($51) to fill the final place.
In the end we went with our instinct which said Buffering, Rob Heathcote is firing with Woorim winning on Derby Day and lining up in the Emirates Stakes on Saturday, so cheers to the Queenslander!
Buffering won the Group 3 Mitty’s McEwen Stakes (1000m) first-up for the season before his fourth to Sepoy in the Manikato.
Last start was admittedly a little disappointing when he was beaten seven lengths running sixth to Sepoy in the Caulfield Sprint, but back up to 1200 metres – which he has won four and placed twice in four of his 12 starts over – he should be a little more competitive.
Has a solid strike rate of 42.11% and has run third to Black Caviar before in the BTC Cup at Doomben back in May.
Roughie Pick: #6 Curtana
$51 to Win at Luxbet
As we said before, it was a tough call for us not to include Curtana in the Patinack Farm Trifecta, so we will definitely have a separate Place bet on her through Luxbet just in case!
She is drawn in three where she is set to get a nice run on the inside of Black Caviar, has twice won over the distance, has form at the Track and distance making her a good pick down the straight – forgiving her failure last-start in the Salinger.
So there you have it! The Patinack Farm Classic First Four quandary solved.
Whether it is our Patinack Farm Classic tips or your own you are keen to lock in, you will find the hottest odds on the race at Luxbet.
Luxbet are also offering exclusive ‘Without Black Caviar’ odds on the race with Mid Summer Music paying $2.80 to Win in a field excluding the favourite.
So head to Luxbet now and check out all of their Emirates Stakes Day odds and specials, and if you are a first-time depositing customer remember to quote the exclusive promo BONUSBET to get up to $500 as a bonus bet!