This Saturday the headline race running on the final Melbourne Cup Carnival raceday is the Emirates Stakes 2011, and below the Races.com.au team have made our insider tips on the prestigious mile showdown public knowledge.
Running at 3:00pm (AEDT) as Flemington Race 6, one event after the mighty mare Black Caviar vies for her 16th straight turf triumph in the Patinack Farm Classic, the $1 million Group 1 Emirates Stakes (1600m) sees a capacity field of gallopers face off.
Leading the Emirates Stakes odds at a quote of $5.50 at Luxbet is savvy Kiwi galloper Jimmy Choux coming off a brave second place finish in the Cox Plate.
Money is also about for two class mares in the Emirates Stakes markets with the Peter Moody-trained King’s Rose at $6.50 and recent Epsom Handicap conqueror Secret Admirer an easing $7 third favourite.
While two punters’ picks have saluted in the past four Emirates Stakes, most recently Wall Street who is back to defend his title from last year, this race has historically been a nice one for upsets.
With that in mind the Races.com.au team had a close look at the 2011 Emirates Stakes field, form guide and betting history to make our trifecta selections on the Flemington feature to lock in at our preferred online bookmaker Luxbet.
2011 Emirates Stakes Tips
Flemington Race 6 Betting – 05/11/2011
1st: #2 Wall Street
$13 to Win at Luxbet
Back-to-back winners don’t happen often in the Emirates Stakes but the Races.com.au team have Wall Street rated special to do just that on Saturday.
If the ground gets too firm at Flemington Jeff Lynds’ New Zealand visitor won’t like it, but he can handle it with good form up to a Good (3).
Out to become the first successive winner since Seascay in 1994-95. Pays a nice price for it too considering they meet the favourite Jimmy Choux 2kg better in the weights and they have a good barrier two draw.
Bowman rides again for the first time since their Emirates success last year, Wall Street coming off a close Cox Plate fourth carrying 59kg (drop to 56kg).
Last year they ran seventh in the Cox Plate before the Emirates, leading one to believe they are in better form, and are one of only two horses with a win at the track and distance up their sleeve.
2nd: #1 Jimmy Choux
$5.50 to Win at Luxbet
Jimmy Choux is the favourite and with plenty of facts and stats stacking up in their favour we can see why.
Have the best mile record of any horse here with four wins from five starts so will relish coming back to the 1600m after the Cox Plate. They also boast the highest win rate of the field with 54.55% and a very nice 86.36% place rate.
They are the right age as a four-year-old and have never run a bad race, but with 58kg and from barrier 13 we think they may just get nudged out of the win here.
3rd: #11 King’s Rose
$6.50 to Win at Luxbet
Could be a super day for Moody bagging two Group 1’s with two top mares if King’s Rose gets up and claims an upset.
There is plenty in her form line to suggest she can and she has been one of the most consistent of this group all season with back to back Group 2 wins before her close Toorak second and last-start Cox Plate seventh.
Back to the mile King’s Rose will be back to her best.
She has a 50% overall strike rate and an even better one at the distances with a trio of wins and one second from four starts.
Lot’s to like, especially at 53kg, and if she gets a good run up on the inside of Jimmy Choux she will be competitive right until the finish.
Roughie Selections: #16 Red Tracer, #17 Largo Lad
Red Tracer at $16 through Luxbet makes an ideal exotics inclusion. Chris Waller’s galloper gets in at just 52kg and the only thing not to like is the wide draw 19 (goes into 16 with emergencies out). Has a 50% win rate, one of the best in this field, and has yet to finish out of the money with a 100% place rate – we rate that!
Not rough enough? Try Largo Lad at $51 to win at Luxbet. Others have as this galloper comes in from their opening odds of $61. Need a scratching to get into the field (maybe Yosei), and if they get in they are a genuine place chance. Drawn in barrier seven which is perfect and is the only other horse aside from the defending champ to have won at the track and distance.
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