Crown Oaks Form Guide 2011 Preview & Analysis

With Atlantic Jewel injuring a hamstring and sent to the spelling paddock, the 2011 Crown Oaks is any filly’s for the taking. Or is it? Below the Races.com.au take a look at the wide open field of fillies set to contest Thursday’s Flemington classic providing our exclusive Crown Oaks form guide analysis and betting preview to see if one of the hopefuls stands out from the crowd.

There are 11 horses making up the final field for this year’s $1 million Group 1 VRC Crown Oaks (2500m), which runs as Flemington Race 6 at 3:40pm (local time) on Thursday.

Gliding

Gliding is out to give Bart Cummings' his 10th Crown Oaks victory in 2011

Of these there are four at single-figure Crown Oaks odds through Luxbet with Kiwi visitor Dowager Queen ($3.70), Thousand Guineas runner-up Mosheen ($4.60), Wakeful Stakes second placegetter Rahveel ($5.50) and the Bart Cummings-trained Gliding ($7).

With the remaining seven Crown Oaks contenders paying between $10 and $31 dollars, the punters and bookies are having a hard time separating this field.

This is where the Crown Oaks form guide and historical betting analysis comes in.

Which Crown Oaks barriers have produced the most winners?

What filly in this year’s field statistically has the best chance of success?

Is there a standout to get behind based on Win and Place percentages?

What horse should you have your money on at Luxbet for the Crown Oaks?

See below for the Races.com.au team’s comprehensive Crown Oaks form guide preview, listing the most important betting facts and stats to get you winning big on Thursday!

2011 Crown Oaks Form Guide Facts & Betting Stats

  • Last year’s Crown Oaks winner Brazilian Pulse jumped from barrier seven; this year #11 Pentimento ($16 Luxbet) is in gate seven
  • Brazilian Pulse ran third in the Thousand Guineas and won the Wakeful on way to her Crown Oaks victory 12 months ago; Wakeful Stakes winner Atlantic Jewel is out but #2 Mosheen (2nd) and #4 Rahveel (5th) come via the Thousand Guineas
  • #10 Lady Jouster ($26 Luxbet) is the only last-start winner engaged coming off a win over 2200m at Bendigo on October 15
  • #1 Mosheen ($4.60 Luxbet) is out to become the third filly in the past 10 years to claim the Edward Manifold Stakes – Crown Oaks double joining Serenade Rose (2005) and Special Harmony (2003)
  • The two fillies with the equal highest Win Rate of the field are #9 Flame Of Lanka ($31 Luxbet) and #11 Pentimento ($16 Luxbet) with 33.33%; they are followed by #1 Mosheen ($4.60 Luxbet), #2 Dowager Queen ($3.70 Luxbet) and #10 Lady Jouster ($26 Luxbet) who have a 25% winning strike rate
  • Based on Place percentages the most consistent fillies are #1 Mosheen (75%) and #2 Dowager Queen (75%)
  • The most successful Crown Oaks winning trainer in history with nine wins is Bart Cummings, he is represented this year by #3 Gliding ($7 Luxbet)
  • Favourites have a great record in the race and this year’s easing favourite is #2 Dowager Queen ($3.70 Luxbet)
  • Her current price makes #2 Dowager Queen historically a nice bet with the average price of the Crown Oaks winner over the past 10 years being $3.60
  • Over the past decade barrier 5 – 8 have been the most successful producing five winners; fillies drawn in this range for Thursday are #9 Flame Of Lanka (barrier five), #5 Roma Giaconda (barrier six), #11 Pentimento (barrier seven) and #2 Dowager Queen (barrier eight)
  • The best Flemington track records belong to #1 Mosheen (3-1-0-0), #2 Dowager Queen (1-0-1-0) and #4 Rahveel (2-0-1-0)
  • While no filly has been to the Oaks distance (2500m) before, the only horse that has won at a distance greater than a mile is #3 Gliding (2000m)

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2011 Crown Oaks Field & Form Guide

Flemington Race 6 – 03/11/2011

# Horse Trainer Jockey Br. Wt. Age/Sex Days API Career Win% Place% Last 6
1. MOSHEEN R W Smerdon Danny Nikolic 2 55.5 3yoF 5 $117,650 8: 2 2 2 25.00% 75.00% 353126
2. DOWAGER QUEEN G A Rogerson Not Notified 8 55.5 3yoF 5 $12,701 16: 4 2 6 25.00% 75.00% 416323
3. GLIDING J B Cummings Darren Beadman 10 55.5 3yoF 5 $13,261 7: 1 0 2 14.29% 42.86% 346514
4. RAHVEEL L J Corstens Damien Oliver 11 55.5 3yoF 5 $14,871 6: 1 1 0 16.67% 33.33% 771452
5. ROMA GIACONDA D A Hayes Steven Arnold 6 55.5 3yoF 19 $15,020 5: 1 2 0 20.00% 60.00% 21258
6. GIOE M C Kent Brad Rawiller 9 55.5 3yoF 5 $3,690 5: 0 1 2 0.00% 60.00% 32036
7. VITTORIA M C Kent Craig Newitt 4 55.5 3yoF 19 $1,979 8: 1 2 0 12.50% 37.50% 2×7704
8. FALLEN ONE G M Begg Brenton Avdulla 1 55.5 3yoF 5 $3,740 5: 1 0 0 20.00% 20.00% 5×4150
9. FLAME OF LANKA D A Hayes Dwayne Dunn 5 55.5 3yoF 12 $4,433 3: 1 1 0 33.33% 66.67% 214
10. LADY JOUSTER A J Cummings Dean Yendall 3 55.5 3yoF 19 $2,294 4: 1 1 0 25.00% 50.00% 0921
11. PENTIMENTO M C Kent Corey Brown 7 55.5 3yoF 19 $3,025 3: 1 0 0 33.33% 33.33% 516

*Form Guide Credit Ladbrokes.com.au

 

 

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