Murwillumbah trainer Matthew Dunn is looking...
The next Group 1 race of the time-honoured Melbourne Cup Carnival is the 2011 Crown Oaks at Flemington Racecourse today, and with one of the most open fields of three-year-old fillies seen in recent years, below the Races.com.au have our insider Crown Oaks tips and trifecta selection.
Having done a detailed 2011 Crown Oaks Field & Form Guide Analysis earlier, we have studied the facts and stats on the $1 million showdown and to us there are two standouts.
The two fillies that emerge as the Crown Oaks best bets to make based on the historical data and the form are also the two top elects in the Luxbet markets, just in reverse order.
Based on strike rates, form consistency, class, statistical advantages and records the Races.com.au have #1 Mosheen rated special to win the Crown Oaks 2011 from the easing favourite #2 Dowager Queen.
Races.com.au Crown Oaks 2011 Tips – Flemington Race 6 Betting:
1st: #1 Mosheen
- Rated Special to win @ $4.60 – Bet now at Luxbet
Mosheen emerges as the best filly in the Crown Oaks field despite this being her first start over a distance greater than a mile (1600m).
She is also the Crown Oaks betting market mover at Luxbet having been crunched in from $6 to $4.60 by the punters.
Drawn in barrier two, Mosheen is likely to settle just off the Crown Oaks pace on Thursday before finishing them off with her powerful sprint.
There may be queries over the distance but considering Mosheen’s class, she is the obvious pick for us.
She ran second in the Thousand Guineas two starts back, which is a nice form race for the Crown Oaks, and was far from disgraced last start when finishing four and a half lengths away sixth against older rivals in the Group 1 Myer Classic (1600m) on Derby Day.
A steady 25% Win Rate and impressive 75% Place Rate prove her consistency and she is the only filly here to have won at Flemington.
Her trainer Robert Smerdon believes it is about time a Group 1 victory came Mosheen’s way, and we think so too.
“She was beaten in the (Golden) Slipper by the best colt (Sepoy) and she was beaten in the Thousand Guineas by the best filly (Atlantic Jewel), so you’d like to think a filly like her will get her chance to win a Group 1 because she’s proven she’s right up there with them,” Smerdon said.
2nd: #2 Dowager Queen
- $3.70 to Win and $1.57 to Place @ Luxbet
She is the easing favourite and there is a lot to like about Dowager Queen, but for us Mosheen just looks a little nicer.
But if it is the favourite you want to back the stats are there for her.
An equal 25% Win Rate and 75% Place Rate with Mosheen, Dowager Queen is probably unlucky not to have a few more wins to her name.
History also says Dowager Queen can win with favourites boasting a nice record.
Her current $3.70 price to win in the Crown Oaks odds at Luxbet also shines through as a sign with the average winning price in the Crown Oaks over the past decade being $3.70.
While barrier two should suit Mosheen, gate eight looks great for Dowager Queen so it will become a case of whether the pace turns the race into a genuine staying test or a sprint finish.
3rd: #4 Rahveel
- $5.50 to Win and $1.95 to Place @ Luxbet
Rahveel is third favourite in the Crown Oaks markets for a reason.
She may not have the right draw to win being in the extreme outside gate (11) but there are plenty of other things in her corner to be competitive on Thursday including her Flemington experience and her eye-catching second in the Wakeful.
Breeding says she will get the trip being a daughter of Zabeel.
Roughie: #11 Pentimento
- $16 to Win and $4.16 to Place @ Luxbet
Upset winner? Upset placegetter? Both are real possibilities and we will definitely have Pentimento in our exotics for value.
Why? She is drawn in barrier seven which is the gate Brazilian Pulse jumped from last year to win and she has the equal highest Win Rate of the field (33.33%).
We are putting our money where our mouth is and have our Crown Oaks Trifecta Tip locked in at our preferred online bookmaker Luxbet.
If successful we will be celebrating double times with Luxbet paying Best Tote Exotics plus a 5% bonus on all winning exotics this Crown Oaks Day!
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