Murwillumbah trainer Matthew Dunn is looking...
Mug and pro punters alike around Australia are gearing up for our greatest race, the 2011 Melbourne Cup to light up Flemington Racecourse as Race 7 at 3:00pm (local time) on Tuesday, and below the Races.com.au team have the most comprehensive Melbourne Cup form guide analysis and betting preview providing our readers with all the Melbourne Cup facts and stats to help you pick the winner.
The $6 million Group 1 Emirates Melbourne Cup (3200m) is the richest race held in Australia and the most lucrative two-mile handicap in the world, so it is little wonder a capacity 24-horse field brimming with talent has been accepted for this year’s edition.
Drawing stayers from near and far, the 2011 Melbourne Cup field features a record 11 European-trained raiders making the form on the race one of the most intriguing in many years.
Hailing from France are the top two gallopers in the Melbourne Cup markets at Luxbet with defending Melbourne Cup title holder Americain the $5 favourite from fellow French stayer and last-start Geelong Cup conqueror Dunaden at a quote of $8.
These are the punters’ picks, but are they the best Melbourne Cup bets to make based on the historical data, winning statistics and form of the 24 in the field?
Anything can, and often does, happen when those Melbourne Cup barriers go up at Flemington on the first Tuesday of November each year.
Our nation comes to a standstill for three minutes every year to cheer the horses we have keenly backed to become the latest hero in the Melbourne Cup story, but will you be on the winner this year?
By numbers the 2011 Melbourne Cup is a cracker:
- 24 Horses
- 11 Internationally Trained
- 1 Defending Melbourne Cup Winner
- 2 Mares
- 2 for the Cups King
- 2 for Godolphin
- 2 for Cumani
- 2 for Lloyd Williams
- 2 for Waterhouse
- 2 for Waller
- 2 for Ellison
- 2 from France
- 2 German Imports
This is a lot to take in and consider, which is where the 2011 Melbourne Cup Form Guide comes in.
Where have the Melbourne Cup horses come via?
Which races provide the best form line for the ‘race that stops a nation’?
Which barriers have produced the most Melbourne Cup winners?
What is the right age for a horse to win the Melbourne Cup?
The Races.com.au team have looked through the field, done the form research and studied the history to come up with the best 2011 Melbourne Cup form facts and betting stats.
After checking out our below preview, make sure you head straight to Luxbet to get your Melbourne Cup bets down at the best prices!
2011 Melbourne Cup Form Preview & Betting Facts
- Last year’s Melbourne Cup winner Americain is back to defend their title; last year they came off a Geelong Cup victory, jumped from barrier 11, carried 54.5kg and were ridden by Gerald Mosse – this year they come off a Moonee Valley Gold Cup win, jump from barrier 15, carry 58kg and Mosse retains the ride
- #9 Lucas Cranch ($12 Luxbet) jumps from Americain’s winning Melbourne Cup barrier 11
- #3 Dunaden ($8 Luxbet) vies for the Geelong Cup – Melbourne Cup double and is the only horse to carry 54.5kg this year; along with Americain, Media Puzzle (2002) also claimed this double in the past 10 years
- #23 Niwot ($10 Luxbet) vies for The Lexus Stakes – Melbourne Cup double; Shocking (2009) is the last horse to claim this double
- #22 Tullamore ($26 Luxbet) is out to become the second horse in the last 10 years to take out the Brisbane Cup – Melbourne Cup double along with Viewed (2008)
- The best Win Rate of the field belongs to #9 Lucas Cranch (50.00%)
- The next most consistent winning horses are #2 Jukebox Jury (42.86%), #1 Americain (38.46%), #16 Modun (37.50%), #23 Niwot (36.36%) and #14 Illo (35.71%)
- Horses with the highest Place Rates are: #14 Illo (78.57%), #3 Dunaden (74.07%), #16 Modun (75%) and #22 Tullamore (66.67%)
- There are six last-start winners engaged with #1 Americain (2500m, Moonee Valley, 22/10/2011), #2 Jukebox Jury (2816m, Curragh, 10/09/2011), #3 Dunaden (2400m, Geelong, 19/10/2011), #5 Glass Harmonium (2000m, Flemington, 29/10/2011), #8 Fox Hunt (2814m, Dortnumd, 18/09/2011), #16 Modun (2413m, Kempton Park, 03/09/2011) and #23 Niwot (2500m, Flemington, 29/10/2011)
- In the past 18 years 11 Melbourne Cup winners won their lead-up race
- Horses coming off the longest break between runs are #16 Modun (59 days) and #2 Jukebox Jury (52 days)
- Bart Cummings holds the training record with 12 Melbourne Cup winners, he is represented this year by #11 Precedence ($41 Luxbet)
- There are only two other 2011 Melbourne Cup hopes to be prepared by a former Melbourne Cup winning trainer with #1 Americain (Alain de Royer Dupre with Americain in 2010) and #5 Glass Harmonium (Mike Moroney with Brew in 2000)
- Along with Americain (Gerald Mosse), other horses to be ridden by a former Melbourne Cup winning jockey on Saturday are #6 Manighar (Damien Oliver), #9 Lucas Cranach (Corey Brown), #11 Precedence (Darren Beadman), #12 Red Cadeaux (Michael Rodd), #14 Illo (Jim Cassidy), #16 Modun (Kerrin McEvoy), #17 At First Sight (Steven King) and #22 Tullamore (Chris Munce)
- Over the full 150-year Melbourne Cup history 4 and 5 year olds have the best record with 43 winners each; there are eight 5YO’s lining up this year with #8 Fox Hunt ($31 Luxbet), #9 Lucas Cranach ($12 Luxbet), #17 At First Sight ($14 Luxbet), #21 The Verminator ($101 Luxbet), #22 Tullamore ($26 Luxbet) and $201 roughie #24 Older Than Time
- Meanwhile, the sole 4YO in contention this year is #20 Shamrocker paying $51 at Luxbet to win
- However, in the past 10 years 6YO’s hold the record with four victories; there are nine six-year-olds racing this year with #2 Jukebox Jury ($14 Luxbet), #3 Dunaden ($8 Luxbet), #5 Glass Harmonium ($26 Luxbet), #6 Manighar ($41 Luxbet), #10 Mourayan ($16 Luxbet), #11 Precedence ($41 Luxbet), #12 Red Cadeaux ($31 Luxbet), #14 Illo ($21 Luxbet) and #19 Saptapadi ($91 Luxbet)
- Only two eight-year-olds in history have claimed the Melbourne Cup making #7 Unusual Suspect ($41 Luxbet) a statistically bad horse to back
- In the past 11 years five Melbourne Cup winners were mares; there are two mares racing this year with #20 Shamrocker and #24 Older Than Time and both have drawn poorly in barrier 24 and 20 respectively
- The average Melbourne Cup weight carried to victory in the past decade is 54kg; four horses carry 54kg this year with #4 Drunken Sailor ($41 Luxbet), #5 Glass Harmonium ($26 Luxbet), #6 Manighar ($41 Luxbet) and #7 Unusual Suspect ($41 Luxbet)
- Barriers 9 – 12 have produced the most Melbourne Cup winners in the last 10 years with four victories; horses in these statistically successful gates in 2011 are #23 Niwot (9), #17 At First Sight (10), #9 Lucas Cranach (11) and #22 Tullamore (12)
- There has only been three triple-figure roughies to win the Melbourne Cup with The Pearl (100-1 in 1871), Wotan (100-1 in 1936) and Old Rowley (100-1 in 1940); that means stay away from #13 Hawk Island ($101 Luxbet), #21 The Verminator ($101 Luxbet) and #24 Older Than Time ($201 Luxbet)
- Melbourne Cup betting favourites have saluted for the punters on 32 occasions
- Only two horses have won over the Melbourne Cup Track (Flemington) and Distance (3200m) combined with #1 Americain (2010 Melbourne Cup) and #23 Niwot (2011 Andrew Ramsden Stakes)
- Horses with the best Flemington track record are: #1 Americain (1-1-0-0), #5 Glass Harmonium (3-1-2-0), #10 Mourayan (7-1-2-0), #11 Precedence (6-1-1-0), #20 Shamrocker (7-2-1-1) and #23 Niwot (5-3-1-0)
- Based on Two-Mile Form the horses to back in the 2011 Melbourne Cup are: #1 Americain (1-1-0-0), #4 Drunken Sailor (5-1-2-0), #10 Mourayan (1-0-0-1), #15 Lost In The Moment (1-0-1-0), #23 Niwot (1-1-0-0) and #24 Older Than Time (1-0-1-0)
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