Melbourne Cup 2011 Odds Too Short for Saptapadi

Often the case leading up to Flemington’s annual showcase race, the $6 million Group 1 Emirates Melbourne Cup (3200m), is punters and form analysts discussing horses that are over in the odds and that could potentially claim an upset. In the case of Saptapadi in the 2011 Melbourne Cup, however, a price of around $100 to win is the exact opposite.

Saptapadi is perhaps one of the most controversial starters in the 24-horse Melbourne Cup field for 2011, the lightly-raced six-year-old the poorest-rated of the 11 internationally-trained raiders out to claim Australia’s greatest race.

While the Melbourne Cup is an open race and the majority of the European horses in contention this year are deserving of their spot in the field – see defending champion Americain ($5 Luxbet), Geelong Cup winner Dunaden ($7.50 Luxbet), Irish St Leger conqueror Jukebox Jury ($13 Luxbet) and their stablemate Fox Hunt ($31 Luxbet) – if ever there was a horse that probably shouldn’t be in the Melbourne Cup, Saptapadi is it.

#19 Saptapadi – Horse Form

  • Jockey: Chris Symons
  • Trainer: Brian Ellison
  • Owners: Koo’s Racing Club
  • Age: 6YO
  • Gender: Gelding
  • Breeding: by Indian Ridge (IRE) from Olympienne (IRE)
  • Career: 14:1-2-1
  • Prize Money: $86,767
  • Track: 0-0-0-0
  • Distance*: 1-0-1-0
  • Current Melbourne Cup Odds: $91 to Win / $23.50 to Place – Bet now at Luxbet

*Note: Start at distance was 3218 metres

One of two Brian Ellison-trained chances in this year’s Cup clash along with Herbert Power Stakes third placegetter Moyenne Corniche ($26 Luxbet), Saptapadi is currently paying $91 in the Melbourne Cup markets at Luxbet.

They were $101 earlier, and why anyone is taking them to win is beyond us.

Ellison, however, doesn’t seem to mind how, what, when, where or why. He is just happy to be there on the first Tuesday of November being dually represented in the Melbourne Cup.

“I’m so happy I got in,” he said at Saturday’s barrier draw.

“My horses are well.”

Saptapadi has had just 14 starts to date, only winning one of those, so they get a start in the world’s richest handicap with the chance to win a share of $6 million yet they have only won $86,767 in prize money themselves.

How a European with such a poor strike rate and diminutive amount of prize money makes the cut is questionable to many.

At the end of the day, however, Saptapadi is in the Melbourne Cup field and will get their chance in the testing two-mile showdown on Tuesday the galloper to wear the No. 19 Melbourne Cup saddlecloth from barrier 22.

“Saptapadi I would have like to draw 10 or 11 but it doesn’t matter I’m just happy to be in the race,” Ellison said.

“It’s the greatest race in the world.”

Why You Shouldn’t Bet on Saptapadi in the 2011 Melbourne Cup Odds

  • Has only had 14 starts, two of which were in Australian when eight in the Herbert Power and 14th in the Caulfield Cup
  • In their lead-up run they were beaten nearly nine lengths in the Caulfield Cup, not a Melbourne Cup winning performance
  • Their Win Rate is the worst in this year’s race, a dismal 7.14%; their stablemate Moyenne Corniche’s isn’t much better at 7.69%
  • Jockey Chris Symons has never ridden a Melbourne Cup winner
  • Only $86,767 in prize money – how does that get you into a Melbourne Cup
  • Barrier 22 – one of the widest drawn horses in the field

Is there anything to like about this horse? There must be as they have been taken in the betting by more than a few. Here’s why.

Why You Should Bet on Saptapadi in the 2011 Melbourne Cup Odds

  • Crunched from triple figures into $91 at Luxbet so someone likes them – trackside tip??
  • A 52kg lightweight, they drop 2.5kg from what they carried in the Caulfield last-start and is in fact the lightest weight they have ever been allocated – but they will need the advantage
  • One of the few that’s been to the two-miles when they finished one and a half lengths away second in the Group 2 Henry II Stakes (3218m) in Britain back in May 2010
  • Decent breeding – is a half-brother to Group 3 winner and fellow Melbourne Cup rival Modun ($26 Luxbet)
  • Fifth in the York Betfred Ebor in August to Moyenne Corniche, their last run before heading to Austrlaia, that race has some nice form lines

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