All week the Races.com.au team have been reporting the latest field and betting updates for the premier race on the Flemington card today, the Victoria Derby 2011, and below we have our expert tips and exotic selections on the three-year-olds’ classic.
Due to jump at 3:00pm (AEDST) as Flemington Race 6, the $1.5 million Group 1 AAMI Victoria Derby (2500m) features a capacity field of 16 starters with the two emergencies having been officially scratched this morning, #17 Mustang and #18 Monsili out.
Favourite heading into this afternoon’s VRC Derby is Ron Leemon’s consistent and honest galloper Manawanui, winner of the Group 1 Golden Rose in Sydney last month.
A proven middle-distance champion having run a devastatingly close second to Helmet in the Caulfield Guineas before their last-start Vase success at the Valley, Oratorio gelding Manawanui comes into barrier six for today’s staying test.
Originally opening at a quote of $2.30 in the Victoria Derby odds at Luxbet, Manawanui has since drifted out to a more generous $2.70 as the punters begin to query their ability to see out the 2500 metres and hold off the likes of Peter Snowden’s striking Geelong Classic winner Induna ($4.80 Luxbet).
Earlier this week we published an exclusive Victoria Derby 2011 Betting & Form Analysis looking at every runner in the field and assessing the stats and facts on this great spring carnival clash.
Based on the form and after getting the inside word from our industry connections, the Races.com.au team have listed below what we believe with be the winning Victoria Derby tips and first four finishers.
Fancy locking in ours, or your own, Victoria Derby trifecta or first four tips for this afternoon’s showcase race? Head to Luxbet now where every event on the Flemington card today is part of their Best Tote Exotics + 5% Bonus offer!
Victoria Derby 2011 Tips – Flemington Race 6 Betting
- 1st: Manawanui – Rated Special to Win – payin $2.70 at Luxbet now!
The easing odds on Manwanui to win the Derby suit us just fine as we believe their genuine will-to-win and class will see them get the 2500 metres today and salute for their second Group 1 victory.
Their victory in the Vase was a gritty one and in the past 10 years the Vase – Derby double has been completed on three occasions, today will make it four.
They boast the best win rate of the field with 75%, this shows they know how to win and yes the distance is a query, but it is for every one of these three-year-olds.
To get a beautiful run from barrier six, all they need to do is just switch off in the running like they did last-start and they will get this distance, their powerful finishing burst impressive enough to see them hit the line first as well.
- 2nd: Induna – Lock in to finish second to Manawanui in the Exacta at Luxbet now!
The Peter Snowden-trained Induna was the eleventh-hour entry after their three and a half length thriller in the Geelong Classic and they are also the Victoria Derby market mover having come in from $6 to $4.80.
They jump from 10 today, they came from 11 in the Geelong Classic.
They have form up to 2200 metres, further than many of their rivals, so it shouldn’t really be a stretch to suggest they can win over 2500 metres…just not today.
Little doubt this is a Group 1 winner in the making, but we just feel that Manawanui is the rank horse and deserve it more, will be close.
- 3rd: Sabrage – $14 to Win and $4.06 to Place through Luxbet – put them in the Trifecta!
Have been forgotten by the punters since drawing wide, they are into 14 now with emergencies out and really they can overcome this as last year’s Victoria Derby winner Lion Tamer did when jumping from barrier 14 of 16 last year.
Come off a tight Norman Robins Stakes win over fellow Derby rivals Sangster, Niagara and Costly Commitment, can they get the distance? Not first but for third yes as they have the equal third most consistent strike rate (40%) of this field.
- 4th: Collar – Definite Inclusion for all Derby Exotics at Luxbet
Another galloper that saw lots of early money – $18 into $13 – but is back out to $15 with the bets going elsewhere (mainly on Induna).
Robert Hickmott’s one-time Derby favourite looked very nice winning the Doncaster Stakes at Flemington on October 2, but they were found out when jumping up to the mile at Caulfield on October 12 to finish five lengths away third to Meethaq.
This saw many jump off the Collar bandwagon, but they struck interference in that run and had 59kg on their back.
Looked better in the Vase, still beaten 2.5 lengths by the winner, but that is enough for a first four inclusion today especially from barrier three.
Are a Flemington winner, have placed top three in 80% of their runs, could sneak into the Trifecta?
- Best Roughie Selection: Rapidus – $81 at Luxbet – Triple Figures no more!
As late as Friday afternoon punters were able to get this runner at $101, but Rapidus has now been crunched into $81.
We can see why too.
Consider this: they are prepared by the equal most successful Derby trainer in history Bart Cummings, is a last start winner at Gosford and history says roughies can win this even triple figure ones like 2008 champion Rebel Raider who jumped at 100-1.
Check out the latest Victoria Derby odds and betting options open now at Luxbet and remember to check out their $250 2nd Place Refund offer on all of today’s Group 1 races.
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