Victoria Derby 2011 Betting & Form Analysis

The 2011 Victoria Derby is the headline event at Flemington’s opening Melbourne Cup Carnival meeting this Saturday and with a bumper field of class three-year-olds engaged for the classic, the Races.com.au team have all the best form facts, betting stats and field analysis below to help you find this year’s Victoria Derby winner.

Running as Flemington Race 6 at 3:00pm (AEDST), the $1.5 million Group 1 AAMI Victoria Derby (2500m) has attracted a capacity field of 16 starters plus two emergencies with the super consistent Manawanui the top elect in the Luxbet markets.

Manawanui

Race favourite Manawanui boasts the best Win Rate of the 2011 Victoria Derby field

Having eased out from $2.30 to $2.60 to score the Victoria Derby trophy in 2011 and add a second elite level to their record, the Ron Leemon-trained Manawanui is certainly the best credential runner in the race but is that enough?

The Derby is a tough one. It has its competitors going up to 2500 metres for the first time, a tricky thing for even the bred-to-stay three-year-olds to do, and with the distance such a query there is very rarely an odds-on favourite.

With no form distance per say to study, there are still plenty of other things to consider when placing your Victoria Derby bets at Luxbet.

What does the race history and winning statistics reveal? Is there a ‘best’ barrier to jump from? What are the most productive lead-up races? Is the form for or against the favourites?

All of these questions and more can be found by looking through the Victoria Derby field and form, and by researching the race history.

But who has time to do that?

The Races.com.au team that’s who and we have done just that to save our readers time and energy.

So see below for our exclusive 2011 Victoria Derby form guide and betting analysis giving you all the facts and stats you need to place a well-informed wager with the best chance of success at Luxbet this Saturday.

2011 Victoria Derby Betting & Form Guide Facts

  • Last year’s Victoria Derby winner Lion Tamer jumped from barrier 14 in a capacity 16 horse field with Hugh Bowman in the mount; this year #15 Rapidus drew gate 14 but #1 Sabrage ($13 Luxbet) will jump from this gate with the two emergencies coming out
  • The history is mixed in regards to the best Derby barriers – in the last 25 years there have been 13 winners jumping from gates 1 – 9, but in the past decade three winners have jumped from double-digits with Lion Tamer (br. 14 in 2010), Rebel Raider (br. 15 in 2008) and Benicio (br. 16 in 2005)
  • The only gate to produce multiple Derby winners in the last 10 years is barrier five, Plastered (2004) and Elvstroem (2003), drawn in five this year is #13 Zabeelionaire ($21 Luxbet) but #8 Costly Commitment ($26 Luxbet) will start from this gate if emergencies don’t get a run
  • AAMI Vase placegetters have a good record in the Victoria Derby – the top three from this year’s Vase all back up with #1 Manawanui (1st), #3 Collar (2nd) and #9 Scelto (3rd)
  • #1 Manawanui is out to become the fourth horse in the last 10 years to win the Vase – Derby double joining Efficient (2006), Plastered (2004) and Helenus (2002)
  • Two of the past three Victoria Derby winners have come out of a race other than the Vase with Rebel Raider (2008) third in the Geelong Classic and Monaco Consul (2009) having won the Spring Champion Stakes; this year #7 Induna ($4.60 Luxbet), #6 Perfect Punch ($18 Luxbet) and #16 Mr Chez ($81 Luxbet) ran the Geelong Classic Trifecta and #5 Sangster ($12 Luxbet) comes off a third in the Spring Champion
  • There has only been one Victoria Derby winner in the past 25 to not have placed in the top three for their final lead-up – Redding (1992) – this means stay away from #2 Ispoach (8th), #8 Costly Commitment (4th), #12 Eagle Command (7th), #13 Zabeelionaire (5th), #14 I Feel Good (4th) and #17e Mustang (9th)
  • Four last-start winners are engaged, excluding the emergencies, with #1 Manawanui (2040m, Moonee Valley, 22/10/2011), #4 Sabrage (2000m, Caulfield, 15/10/2011), #7 Induna (2200m, Geelong, 19/10/2011) and #15 Rapidus (1600m, Gosford, 16/10/2011)
  • Colts have the best record with seven wins over the past 10 years; 10 colts (including emergencies) are engaged this year the best fancied of which is #10 Niagara ($8.50 Luxbet)
  • #1 Manawanui boasts the best Win Rate of the field with 75% followed by #6 Perfect Punch (50%), #3 Collar (40%) and #4 Sabrage (40%)
  • The highest Place Percentages belong to #1 Manawanui (100%), #6 Perfect Punch (100%), #3 Collar (80%) and #10 Niagara (80%)
  • Horses with the best Flemington form are #2 Isopach (4-1-0-1), #3 Collar (1-1-0-0), #8 Costly Commitment (1-0-0-1), #9 Scelto (4-0-0-1), #12 Eagle Command (1-0-1-0) and #14 I Feel Good (1-0-1-0)
  • #15 Rapidus ($201 Luxbet) represents Bart Cummings who holds the modern-day training record in the Derby with five wins equal with the late great TJ Smith
  • Other horses prepared by former Derby winning trainers this year are #4 Sabrage (Michael Moroney), #10 Niagara (Gai Waterhouse) and #13 Zabeelionaire (Leon Corstens)
  • Six hopefuls will be ridden by a former Victoria Derby winning jockey with #4 Sabrage (Damien Oliver), #5 Sangster (Hugh Bowman), #6 Perfect Punch (Clare Lindop), #11 Cornell (Craig Williams), #16 Mr Chez (Michael Rodd) and #17e Mustang (Corey Brown)
  • If Hugh Bowman salutes aboard Sangster he will become the first jockey to win back-to-back Derby’s since Roy Higgins with Dayana (1972) and Taj Rossi (1973)

Stay tuned to Races.com.au for our exclusive Victoria Derby tips and selections to be published shortly.

Already picked your Victoria Derby First Four and want to lock it in at the guaranteed best prices in the country?

Head to Luxbet now and get exclusive access to their Best Tote Exotics + 5% Bonus with no cap on your winnings for every race at Flemington this Saturday including the Derby.

Remember also to quote the promo code BONUSBET when opening your new Luxbet account and making your first deposit to enjoy a welcome bonus like no other – 100% back on your first deposit as a bonus bet up to $500!

2011 Victoria Derby Field & Form Guide

Flemington Race 6 – 29/10/2011

# Horse Trainer Jockey Br. Wgt. Age/Sex Days API Career Win% Place% Last 6
1. MANAWANUI R T Leemon Glyn Schofield 8 55.5 3yoG 7 $155,323 8: 6 1 1 75.00% 100.00% x11121
2. ISOPACH John Thompson Joao Moreira 17 55.5 3yoG 14 $16,510 10: 2 0 1 20.00% 30.00% 3×0718
3. COLLAR Robert Hickmott Nicholas Hall 4 55.5 3yoG 7 $30,559 5: 2 1 1 40.00% 80.00% 1×4132
4. SABRAGE M D Moroney Damien Oliver 16 55.5 3yoC 14 $28,465 5: 2 0 1 40.00% 60.00% 1×0431
5. SANGSTER T L Busuttin Hugh Bowman 9 55.5 3yoG 14 $15,122 7: 2 2 1 28.57% 71.43% 012832
6. PERFECT PUNCH L Macdonald and A Gluyas Clare Lindop 13 55.5 3yoC 10 $22,933 6: 3 0 3 50.00% 100.00% 331113
7. INDUNA Peter Snowden Kerrin Mc Evoy 12 55.5 3yoG 10 $11,448 8: 2 0 2 25.00% 50.00% x37311
8. COSTLY COMMITMENT M G Price Craig Newitt 6 55.5 3yoC 14 $12,813 6: 2 0 2 33.33% 66.67% 143134
9. SCELTO R E Laing Dwayne Dunn 10 55.5 3yoC 7 $5,043 10: 1 0 4 10.00% 50.00% 513493
10. NIAGARA Ms G Waterhouse Nash Rawiller 18 55.5 3yoC 14 $9,776 5: 1 2 1 20.00% 80.00% 42×213
11. CORNELL Anthony Freedman Craig Williams 3 55.5 3yoC 10 $5,139 7: 1 3 1 14.29% 71.43% 212592
12. EAGLE COMMAND G Portelli Dean Yendall 15 55.5 3yoG 10 $9,956 4: 1 1 0 25.00% 50.00% 0127
13. ZABEELIONAIRE L J Corstens Stephen Baster 5 55.5 3yoC 14 $6,181 4: 0 1 0 0.00% 25.00% 9245
14. I FEEL GOOD F Stockdale Brenton Avdulla 11 55.5 3yoC 7 $5,705 5: 0 1 0 0.00% 20.00% 72×494
15. RAPIDUS J B Cummings Steven Arnold 14 55.5 3yoC 13 $2,050 6: 1 0 0 16.67% 16.67% 49×551
16. MR CHEZ G A Rogerson Michael Rodd 2 55.5 3yoG 10 $2,289 5: 1 0 1 20.00% 40.00% 51034
17. MUSTANG D R Miller Corey Brown 1 55.5 3yoG 10 $966 6: 2 0 1 33.33% 50.00% 437119
18. MONSILI Shane Edwards Luke Currie 7 55.5 3yoC 14 $927 5: 1 0 0 20.00% 20.00% 0x7771

*Form Guide Credit Ladbrokes.com.au