Murwillumbah trainer Matthew Dunn is looking...
The 2011 Victoria Derby is the headline event at Flemington’s opening Melbourne Cup Carnival meeting this Saturday and with a bumper field of class three-year-olds engaged for the classic, the Races.com.au team have all the best form facts, betting stats and field analysis below to help you find this year’s Victoria Derby winner.
Running as Flemington Race 6 at 3:00pm (AEDST), the $1.5 million Group 1 AAMI Victoria Derby (2500m) has attracted a capacity field of 16 starters plus two emergencies with the super consistent Manawanui the top elect in the Luxbet markets.
Having eased out from $2.30 to $2.60 to score the Victoria Derby trophy in 2011 and add a second elite level to their record, the Ron Leemon-trained Manawanui is certainly the best credential runner in the race but is that enough?
The Derby is a tough one. It has its competitors going up to 2500 metres for the first time, a tricky thing for even the bred-to-stay three-year-olds to do, and with the distance such a query there is very rarely an odds-on favourite.
With no form distance per say to study, there are still plenty of other things to consider when placing your Victoria Derby bets at Luxbet.
What does the race history and winning statistics reveal? Is there a ‘best’ barrier to jump from? What are the most productive lead-up races? Is the form for or against the favourites?
All of these questions and more can be found by looking through the Victoria Derby field and form, and by researching the race history.
But who has time to do that?
The Races.com.au team that’s who and we have done just that to save our readers time and energy.
So see below for our exclusive 2011 Victoria Derby form guide and betting analysis giving you all the facts and stats you need to place a well-informed wager with the best chance of success at Luxbet this Saturday.
2011 Victoria Derby Betting & Form Guide Facts
- Last year’s Victoria Derby winner Lion Tamer jumped from barrier 14 in a capacity 16 horse field with Hugh Bowman in the mount; this year #15 Rapidus drew gate 14 but #1 Sabrage ($13 Luxbet) will jump from this gate with the two emergencies coming out
- The history is mixed in regards to the best Derby barriers – in the last 25 years there have been 13 winners jumping from gates 1 – 9, but in the past decade three winners have jumped from double-digits with Lion Tamer (br. 14 in 2010), Rebel Raider (br. 15 in 2008) and Benicio (br. 16 in 2005)
- The only gate to produce multiple Derby winners in the last 10 years is barrier five, Plastered (2004) and Elvstroem (2003), drawn in five this year is #13 Zabeelionaire ($21 Luxbet) but #8 Costly Commitment ($26 Luxbet) will start from this gate if emergencies don’t get a run
- AAMI Vase placegetters have a good record in the Victoria Derby – the top three from this year’s Vase all back up with #1 Manawanui (1st), #3 Collar (2nd) and #9 Scelto (3rd)
- #1 Manawanui is out to become the fourth horse in the last 10 years to win the Vase – Derby double joining Efficient (2006), Plastered (2004) and Helenus (2002)
- Two of the past three Victoria Derby winners have come out of a race other than the Vase with Rebel Raider (2008) third in the Geelong Classic and Monaco Consul (2009) having won the Spring Champion Stakes; this year #7 Induna ($4.60 Luxbet), #6 Perfect Punch ($18 Luxbet) and #16 Mr Chez ($81 Luxbet) ran the Geelong Classic Trifecta and #5 Sangster ($12 Luxbet) comes off a third in the Spring Champion
- There has only been one Victoria Derby winner in the past 25 to not have placed in the top three for their final lead-up – Redding (1992) – this means stay away from #2 Ispoach (8th), #8 Costly Commitment (4th), #12 Eagle Command (7th), #13 Zabeelionaire (5th), #14 I Feel Good (4th) and #17e Mustang (9th)
- Four last-start winners are engaged, excluding the emergencies, with #1 Manawanui (2040m, Moonee Valley, 22/10/2011), #4 Sabrage (2000m, Caulfield, 15/10/2011), #7 Induna (2200m, Geelong, 19/10/2011) and #15 Rapidus (1600m, Gosford, 16/10/2011)
- Colts have the best record with seven wins over the past 10 years; 10 colts (including emergencies) are engaged this year the best fancied of which is #10 Niagara ($8.50 Luxbet)
- #1 Manawanui boasts the best Win Rate of the field with 75% followed by #6 Perfect Punch (50%), #3 Collar (40%) and #4 Sabrage (40%)
- The highest Place Percentages belong to #1 Manawanui (100%), #6 Perfect Punch (100%), #3 Collar (80%) and #10 Niagara (80%)
- Horses with the best Flemington form are #2 Isopach (4-1-0-1), #3 Collar (1-1-0-0), #8 Costly Commitment (1-0-0-1), #9 Scelto (4-0-0-1), #12 Eagle Command (1-0-1-0) and #14 I Feel Good (1-0-1-0)
- #15 Rapidus ($201 Luxbet) represents Bart Cummings who holds the modern-day training record in the Derby with five wins equal with the late great TJ Smith
- Other horses prepared by former Derby winning trainers this year are #4 Sabrage (Michael Moroney), #10 Niagara (Gai Waterhouse) and #13 Zabeelionaire (Leon Corstens)
- Six hopefuls will be ridden by a former Victoria Derby winning jockey with #4 Sabrage (Damien Oliver), #5 Sangster (Hugh Bowman), #6 Perfect Punch (Clare Lindop), #11 Cornell (Craig Williams), #16 Mr Chez (Michael Rodd) and #17e Mustang (Corey Brown)
- If Hugh Bowman salutes aboard Sangster he will become the first jockey to win back-to-back Derby’s since Roy Higgins with Dayana (1972) and Taj Rossi (1973)
Stay tuned to Races.com.au for our exclusive Victoria Derby tips and selections to be published shortly.
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2011 Victoria Derby Field & Form Guide
Flemington Race 6 – 29/10/2011
|1.||MANAWANUI||R T Leemon||Glyn Schofield||8||55.5||3yoG||7||$155,323||8: 6 1 1||75.00%||100.00%||x11121|
|2.||ISOPACH||John Thompson||Joao Moreira||17||55.5||3yoG||14||$16,510||10: 2 0 1||20.00%||30.00%||3×0718|
|3.||COLLAR||Robert Hickmott||Nicholas Hall||4||55.5||3yoG||7||$30,559||5: 2 1 1||40.00%||80.00%||1×4132|
|4.||SABRAGE||M D Moroney||Damien Oliver||16||55.5||3yoC||14||$28,465||5: 2 0 1||40.00%||60.00%||1×0431|
|5.||SANGSTER||T L Busuttin||Hugh Bowman||9||55.5||3yoG||14||$15,122||7: 2 2 1||28.57%||71.43%||012832|
|6.||PERFECT PUNCH||L Macdonald and A Gluyas||Clare Lindop||13||55.5||3yoC||10||$22,933||6: 3 0 3||50.00%||100.00%||331113|
|7.||INDUNA||Peter Snowden||Kerrin Mc Evoy||12||55.5||3yoG||10||$11,448||8: 2 0 2||25.00%||50.00%||x37311|
|8.||COSTLY COMMITMENT||M G Price||Craig Newitt||6||55.5||3yoC||14||$12,813||6: 2 0 2||33.33%||66.67%||143134|
|9.||SCELTO||R E Laing||Dwayne Dunn||10||55.5||3yoC||7||$5,043||10: 1 0 4||10.00%||50.00%||513493|
|10.||NIAGARA||Ms G Waterhouse||Nash Rawiller||18||55.5||3yoC||14||$9,776||5: 1 2 1||20.00%||80.00%||42×213|
|11.||CORNELL||Anthony Freedman||Craig Williams||3||55.5||3yoC||10||$5,139||7: 1 3 1||14.29%||71.43%||212592|
|12.||EAGLE COMMAND||G Portelli||Dean Yendall||15||55.5||3yoG||10||$9,956||4: 1 1 0||25.00%||50.00%||0127|
|13.||ZABEELIONAIRE||L J Corstens||Stephen Baster||5||55.5||3yoC||14||$6,181||4: 0 1 0||0.00%||25.00%||9245|
|14.||I FEEL GOOD||F Stockdale||Brenton Avdulla||11||55.5||3yoC||7||$5,705||5: 0 1 0||0.00%||20.00%||72×494|
|15.||RAPIDUS||J B Cummings||Steven Arnold||14||55.5||3yoC||13||$2,050||6: 1 0 0||16.67%||16.67%||49×551|
|16.||MR CHEZ||G A Rogerson||Michael Rodd||2||55.5||3yoG||10||$2,289||5: 1 0 1||20.00%||40.00%||51034|
|17.||MUSTANG||D R Miller||Corey Brown||1||55.5||3yoG||10||$966||6: 2 0 1||33.33%||50.00%||437119|
|18.||MONSILI||Shane Edwards||Luke Currie||7||55.5||3yoC||14||$927||5: 1 0 0||20.00%||20.00%||0x7771|
*Form Guide Credit Ladbrokes.com.au
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