Following the scratching of Melbourne Cup-bound Tullamore from Saturday’s 2011 The Lexus Stakes field, the Races.com.au team take a look at the updated odds, form guide and betting history, also providing our insider tips for the Victoria Derby Day feature.
The second of 10 races running at Flemington on Saturday, the $250,000 Group 3 The Lexus Stakes (2500m) is due to jump at 12:00pm (AEDST) and provides the gallopers engaged with a final shot at getting into next Tuesday’s $6 million Melbourne Cup field.
After the announcement on Friday that renowned owner Lloyd Williams had withdrawn Linton from Melbourne Cup contention, and that the Luca Cumani-trained Sahara Sun would not be lining up in the ‘race that stops a nation’, Gai Waterhouse’s Caulfield Cup third placegetter and last-start Moonee Valley Gold Cup runner-up Tullamore has moved inside the top 24 in the order of entry.
She has then made the decision to scratch Tullamore from the 2011 The Lexus Stakes field, saving him for the Melbourne Cup next Tuesday.
This leaves 15 stayers still in the running for the Melbourne Cup ballot exemption on offer to The Lexus Stakes winner?
So who gets the first prize here? Well in the Luxbet markets Williams’ last-start Caulfield Cup runner-up Green Moon is the best-backed to do so, the imported Montjeu stallion at firming odds of $3.
Green Moon certainly has the spring form to suggest this is the right race for them, and with a Cup start hanging in the balance jockey Nicholas Hall will be riding them like, well, a Cup start depends on it.
The other more fancied runners in The Lexus Stakes odds include European radier Moyenne Corniche ($7.50), the Mark Kavanagh-trained Midnight Martini ($7.50) and Peter Moody’s Macedonian ($9).
This is what the markets tell us, but what does The Lexus Stakes form guide and winning history say?
Which horses are the best to back through Luxbet based on winning barrier, age and sex statistics?
Is there a standout when it comes to Win and Place percentages?
Can a double-figure roughie shine through in the form analysis giving punters value?
All of these questions are answered below as we provide our readers with all the best Lexus Stakes form facts, betting stats and tips for Flemington Race 2.
2011 The Lexus Stakes Form Guide & Betting Analysis
- Last year’s winner Maluckyday jumped from barrier 11, carried 53kg and was ridden by Jim Cassidy – also went on to run second to Americain in the Melbourne Cup; this year #14 Anudjawun ($13 Luxbet) comes into gate 11 with the scratching of Tullamore, Jim Cassidy is without a ride and no horse has 53kg
- Maluckyday’s trainers, John, Michael and Wayne Hawks are represented in 2011 by #5 Niwot ($7 Luxbet)
- The horse boasting the best Win Rate in the field is #12 Midnight Martini (41.67%), she is followed by #5 Niwot (33.33%), #7 Older Than Time (33.33%) and #13 Spechenka (32.35%)
- The highest Place Percentages belong to #7 Older Than Time (66.65%), #12 Midnight Martini (58.33%), #5 Niwot (57.14%) and #2 Booming (57.14%)
- Only one last-start winner is engaged with #8 Galizani (2400m, Randwick, October 15); this race – the Listed Tatt’s Club Cup is the same race Maluckyday came off a win in before their Lexus Stakes success 12 months ago
- The only horses to run a placing at the Track & Distance are #5 Niwot (1-0-1-0) and #10 Showcause (1-0-0-1)
- Over the distance the best horses to back are #2 Booming (2-0-1-1), #5 Niwot (1-0-1-0), #10 Showcause (2-0-0-2) and #11 Macedonian (1-1-0-0)
- Horses with a good Flemington race record are #3 Green Moon (2-0-1-0), #5 Niwot (4-2-1-0), #9 Raffaello (13-2-1-1), #10 Showcause (1-0-0-1), #11 Macedonian (5-1-1-1), #12 Midnight Martini (1-1-0-0) and #14 Anudjawun (3-0-1-2)
Based on the above Lexus Stakes form analysis the Races.com.au team believe that Midnight Martini, whose since retired stablemate Shocking won the Lexus Stakes – Melbourne Cup double in 2009, can give Kavanagh a good luck story for the spring with a win here.
Races.com.au The Lexus Stakes Tip
- #12 Midnight Martini from #5 Niwot, #3 Green Moon and #2 Booming
To lock in our Lexus Stakes tips at the best prices visit Luxbet today, the online bookie offering Best Tote Exotics + 5% Bonuses on every Derby Day race!
2011 The Lexus Stakes Field & Form Guide
Flemington Race 2 – 29/10/2011
|1.||TULLAMORE||Ms G Waterhouse||Nash Rawiller||9||57||5yoG||7||$25,896||24: 5 7 4||20.83%||66.67%||183832|
|2.||BOOMING||J R Lynds||Dwayne Dunn||2||56.5||7yoG||14||$16,870||28: 8 6 2||28.57%||57.14%||2×0505|
|3.||GREEN MOON||Robert Hickmott||Nicholas Hall||6||56||5yoH||14||$46,277||13: 4 2 0||30.77%||46.15%||x89212|
|4.||MOYENNE CORNICHE||Brian Ellison||Mark Zahra||13||56||7yoG||21||$12,284||26: 2 6 4||7.69%||46.15%||235013|
|5.||NIWOT||“M, W and J Hawkes||Dean Yendall||7||55||7yoG||14||$20,968||21: 7 4 1||33.33%||57.14%||1×0720|
|6.||TACTIC||D A Hayes||Brett Prebble||8||55||6yoG||14||$9,304||19: 3 3 1||15.79%||36.84%||x86x90|
|7.||OLDER THAN TIME||Ms G Waterhouse||Craig Williams||15||54||5yoM||14||$16,260||15: 5 4 1||33.33%||66.67%||2×0653|
|8.||GALIZANI||John Thompson||Timothy Bell (a)||16||53.5||5yoM||14||$12,568||15: 4 2 1||26.67%||46.67%||x00781|
|9.||RAFFAELLO||P F Ryan||Nikita Mc Lean||10||53.5||7yoH||16||$11,007||49: 9 3 6||18.37%||36.73%||x00396|
|10.||SHOWCAUSE||F T Ritchie||Craig Newitt||5||53.5||6yoG||10||$14,289||28: 5 6 3||17.86%||50.00%||9×8034|
|11.||MACEDONIAN||P G Moody||Luke Nolen||4||53.5||6yoG||14||$13,677||27: 5 1 4||18.52%||37.04%||x00678|
|12.||MIDNIGHT MARTINI||M A Kavanagh||Michael Rodd||14||53.5||4yoM||14||$15,287||12: 5 1 1||41.67%||58.33%||158143|
|13.||SPECHENKA||Ben Ahrens||Danny Nikolic||1||53.5||6yoG||10||$11,340||34: 11 3 1||32.35%||44.12%||553097|
|14.||ANUDJAWUN||S A Dwyer||Corey Brown||12||53.5||6yoG||7||$6,279||18: 1 5 4||5.56%||55.56%||004454|
|15.||REPRISAL||D A Hayes||Brenton Avdulla||3||53.5||6yoG||14||$6,513||34: 6 5 2||17.65%||38.24%||198214|
|16.||HOME ON A WING||A J Cummings||Kerrin Mc Evoy||11||53.5||5yoG||14||$7,042||22: 2 3 3||9.09%||36.36%||317206|
*Form Guide Credit – Ladbrokes.com.au