Victoria Derby 2011 Odds Update – Manawanui Drifts Despite Draw

Manawanui has eased out slightly in their price to win the 2011 Victoria Derby at Flemington this Saturday despite the clear top elect drawing nicely in barrier eight for the three-year-olds’ classic.


Manawanui is the easing 2011 Victoria Derby favourite

The Ron Leemon-trained Manawanui, seen last Saturday running away with the Vase victory at Moonee Valley, opened as the $2.30 favourite in the Luxbet markets for the $1.5 million Group 1 AAMI Victoria Derby (2500m) when the capacity field of 16 starters and two emergencies were released on Wednesday.

In the subsequent Victoria Derby barrier draw, Golden Rose winner Manawanui came up with a plum gate drawing eight but moving into six if the emergencies Mustang (barrier one) and Monsili (barrier seven) fail to gain a start.

The ultra-consistent and progressive young stayer, however, has drifted out to $2.40 with punters starting to query their ability to defeat a full field at Flemington over the 2500 metres.

Others to Drift in the Victoria Derby 2011 Odds –

  • #4 Sabrage ($13 out to $14 Luxbet) – Barrier 16 has done no favours for Michael Moroney’s last-start Norman Robinson Stakes winner, jockey Damien Oliver with work to do

“Ollie will work it out,” Moroney said of the gate for Sabrage, who worked well on Tuesday morning.

“The barrier draw doesn’t help us but we go there with a fair bit of confidence about the horse, to be honest.”

  • #8 Costly Commitment ($18 out to $26 Luxbet) – Barrier 6 looks ideal for the Mick Price-trained Encosta De Lago colt but punters have abandoned, nice odds for a horse that can finish top three here with the distance to suit
  • #10 Niagara ($7 out to $8 Luxbet) – Barrier 18 for Sydney visitor from Gai Waterhouse’s stables, another Encosta De Lago colt coming off good form but they have been blessed with their barriers of late (1,3,1) and could be found out here
  • #12 Eagle Command ($21 out to $26 Luxbet) – Barrier 15 is what Rebel Raider won from in 2003 but with emergencies out Gary Portelli’s galloper goes into 13 – bad omen a day out from Halloween? – and would need to improve dramatically on their last-start seventh in the Geelong Classic

Leemon and connections are still as confident as ever, however, heading into the VRC Derby with Manawanui believing in the gelding’s ability to reign supreme in their acid test on Saturday.

Instructions for jockey Glyn Schofield will be to ride Manawanui just off the pace in the Derby, and after they showed their ability to come from behind in the Vase, this should suit just fine.

“I am convinced he is a horse who likes to settle and always said from day one he was better ridden from behind,” Leemon said.

“From that barrier on Saturday I hope to see him sitting fifth or sixth, one off the fence and going to sleep.

“My instruction will be to wait until he’s well into the straight and give him plenty of room and go when the pressure comes on.

“Obviously Glyn’s the only one who’s going to know how good we feel when he comes to the 300 or the 200 (metres).

“It’s just a matter of timing.

“If he’s still got his sprint there when it comes to that stage, I think they’re going to find it hard to run us down.”

Meanwhile, there have been a number of significant Victoria Derby betting market firmers at Luxbet that the punters have started to warm to.

2011 Victoria Derby Betting Market Firmers –

  • #3 Collar ($18 into $13 Luxbet) – One of the biggest movers after drawing ideally in gate four for Saturday, Robert Hickmott’s O’reilly gelding is bred to stay and comes off a second in the Vase which has produced plenty of Derby winners
  • #6 Perfect Punch ($17 into $16 Luxbet) – Barrier 13 hasn’t stopped the punters coming for this young stablemate of Caulfield Cup winner Southern Speed, their last-start fourth in the Geelong Classic was credible considering they jumped from barrier 13 of 15 with 58kg on their back, should come into gate 11 and drop to 55.5kg
  • #7 Induna ($6 into $5 Luxbet) – Drawn in 12, comes into 10, money continues to come in strongly for Peter Snowden’s Geelong Classic winner

See below for the latest 2011 Victoria Derby fixed win odds that can be found right now at Luxbet.

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2011 AAMI Victoria Derby Odds

Flemington Race 6 – 29/10/2011

# Horse (Barrier) Odds*
1 Manawanui (8) 2.40 Luxbet
2 Isopach (17) 51.00 Luxbet
3 Collar (4) 13.00 Luxbet
4 Sabrage (16) 14.00 Luxbet
5 Sangster (9) 11.00 Luxbet
6 Perfect Punch (13) 16.00 Luxbet
7 Induna (12) 5.00 Luxbet
8 Costly Commitment (6) 26.00 Luxbet
9 Scelto (10) 81.00 Luxbet
10 Niagara (18) 8.00 Luxbet
11 Cornell (3) 51.00 Luxbet
12 Eagle Command (15) 26.00 Luxbet
13 Zabeelionaire (5) 18.00 Luxbet
14 I Feel Good (11) 101.00 Luxbet
15 Rapidus (14) 201.00 Luxbet
16 Mr Chez (2) 61.00 Luxbet
17e Mustang (1) 61.00 Luxbet
18e Monsili (7) 201.00 Luxbet

*Fixed Win Odds subject to change – see Luxbet for updates and to bet now