Murwillumbah trainer Matthew Dunn is looking...
This afternoon one of the country’s lesser-known spring Cups will take place in Victoria with a possible start in the time-honoured Melbourne Cup on the line for the winner of the 2011 Bendigo Cup, but it is an already confirmed Melbourne Cup starter At First Sight leading the markets.
Scheduled to run as Bendigo Race 8 at 4:00pm (AEDST), the $200,000 Listed Bendigo Cup (2400m) currently has 12 runners engaged with the early scratching of the David Vandkye-trained Lamasery due to a leg infection.
Firming favourite in the Bendigo Cup odds at Luxbet is the Lloyd Williams-owned At First Sight who has been crunched in from $3.30 to $2.80 since markets opened.
Drawn well in barrier five, imported Galileo five-year-old At First Sight will carry the 58kg top weight of the field with Nicholas Hall engaged for the ride.
Having suffered from an earlier spring setback coming down with a virus, At First Sight hasn’t raced since their solid second to December Draw in the Naturalism Stakes (2000m) at Caulfield on September 17.
Money has been coming in steady and strong for At First Sight in the Bendigo Cup despite their break between runs, the galloper the only one in the field assured of a start in the $6.2 million Group 1 Melbourne Cup (3200m) next Tuesday.
At First Sight currently sits 20th on the Melbourne Cup 2011 ballot with 52.5kg and could attract a weight penalty from Racing Victoria’s chief handicapper Greg Carpenter if they win the Bendigo Cup today.
Following at First Sight in the Bendigo Cup markets is their stablemate Tanby, the last-start Geelong Cup runner-up behind Melbourne Cup fancy Dunaden another genuine Luxbet market mover in from $4.20 to $3.80.
Tanby will jump one inside the favourite from barrier four carrying 54kg with Steven King in the mount.
It is do-or-die for Tanby today as they sit 38th in the Melbourne Cup order of entry, but even with a win, are unlikely to make the Melbourne Cup field this year.
Williams’ pair are the only Bendigo Cup hopes at single figures.
The next-best fancied are then:
- #4 Sahara Sun ($10 Luxbet) – Luca Cumani-trained raider was ridden off the pace for their Australian debut in the Caulfield Stakes at the start of the month resulting in a seventh to Descarado, today they will go forward and Cumani is confident they can finish in the top three
“The horse is very, very well and is working as storng as anything,” Terry Henderson from OTI Racing Sydnciate said of Sahara Sun.
“If you had a horse win the Bendigo Cup and come out of it in good order, well, it’s a Melbourne Cup, so, of course, you run.”
- #11 Western Symbol ($10 Luxbet) – One of two Bendigo Cup hopes for Gai Waterhouse, is in Melbourne Cup entries but won’t make the field, still a strong chance here from the inside gate, have a very consistent record and are likely to add to that with a place today
- #14 Cosmonaut ($11 Luxbet) – Bart Cummings-trained four-year-old won over 1000m on Caulfield Cup Day last-start, is entered for Melbourne Cup but probably won’t get there, jumps from gate eight today with Luke Nolen aboard carrying just 53kg
So this is what the Bendigo Cup betting markets tell us.
What about the form? What stats and facts are revealed in the Bendigo Cup form guide to help you pick today’s winner?
2011 Bendigo Cup Form Guide Facts
- #6 Tanby boasts the best Win Rate of the field with 42.86% followed by $61 roughie at Luxbet #12 Sunset Cafe (36.36%) and $10 chance from the Gai Waterhouse stables #11 Western Symbol (33.33%)
- The highest Place Percentages of the field belong to #11 Western Symbol (88.89%), #6 Tanby (85.71%) and #4 Sahara Sun (69.23%)
- Race favourite #1 At First Sight is coming off the longest break (39 days)
- Two horses come off a last-start win with #5 Boom ‘N’ Zoom (2025m, Cranbourne, 09/10/2011) and #11 Western Symbol (2400m, Randwick-Kensington, 12/10/2011)
- No horse has had a previous run at the track and distance
- Horses with the best 2400 metre record are #5 Boom’ N’ Zoom (3-1-0-0), #6 Tanby (3-0-2-1), #8 Innocent Lady (4-1-1-0), #11 Western Symbol (1-1-0-0) and #12 Sunset Cafe (1-1-0-0)
Based on the above, the Races.com.au Bendigo Cup Tips for 2011 are:
- #6 Tanby to beat #11 Western Symbol and #4 Sahara Sun – Bet now at Luxbet
At First Sight is far too short, makes a nice first four inclusion but their 58kg is a concern as is their fitness.
Best roughie of the field to add into Exotics is #12 Sunset Cafe paying $61 for the Win and $15.12 to Place through Luxbet.
So head to Luxbet now and lock in our Bendigo Cup selections at the best prices in the country by opening your new account, and if you deposit and quote BONUSBET you will also be eligible for a bonus bet valued up to $500!
2011 Bendigo Cup Odds
Bendigo Race 8 – 26/10/2011
|1||At First Sight (5)||2.80|
|2||Dream Pedlar (11)||14.00|
|4||Sahara Sun (10)||10.00|
|5||Boom N Zoom (7)||11.00|
|7||Back In Black (3)||19.00|
|8||Innocent Lady (6)||21.00|
|9||Olympic Win (2)||21.00|
|10||Two For Tea (12)||26.00|
|11||Western Symbol (1)||10.00|
|12||Sunset Cafe (9)||61.00|
*Fixed Win Odds provided by Luxbet and subject to change
2011 Bendigo Cup Form Guide
|1.||AT FIRST SIGHT||Robert Hickmott||Nicholas Hall||5||58||5yoH||39||$66,052||10: 1 3 1||10.00%||50.00%||45×062|
|2.||DREAM PEDLAR||T W Blacker||Craig Williams||11||56||7yoG||11||$14,918||45: 9 8 6||20.00%||51.11%||x00610|
|3.||LAMASERY||David Vandyke||Brenton Avdulla||13||56||5yoG||25||$22,203||16: 9 2 2||56.25%||81.25%||6×4113|
|4.||SAHARA SUN||L M Cumani||Dwayne Dunn||10||56||4yoH||18||$6,724||13: 3 4 2||23.08%||69.23%||112×67|
|5.||BOOM ‘N’ ZOOM||K M Keys||Craig Newitt||7||54.5||6yoG||17||$12,782||21: 4 3 5||19.05%||57.14%||488×71|
|6.||TANBY||Robert Hickmott||Steven King||4||54||5yoG||7||$15,961||14: 6 3 3||42.86%||85.71%||x03122|
|7.||BACK IN BLACK||J J Steffert||Danny Nikolic||3||53||6yoG||7||$2,771||41: 8 2 0||19.51%||24.39%||941586|
|8.||INNOCENT LADY||G K Sanders||James Winks||6||53||5yoM||26||$5,771||20: 5 7 0||25.00%||60.00%||24×155|
|9.||OLYMPIC WIN||R W Smerdon||Chris Symons||2||53||6yoG||13||$6,796||29: 5 5 3||17.24%||44.83%||4×0073|
|10.||TWO FOR TEA||Ms G Waterhouse||Michael Walker||12||53||5yoG||18||$3,544||15: 3 3 1||20.00%||46.67%||x41030|
|11.||WESTERN SYMBOL||Ms G Waterhouse||Kerrin Mc Evoy||1||53||5yoG||14||$7,488||9: 3 3 2||33.33%||88.89%||233121|
|12.||SUNSET CAFE||L J Corstens||Stephen Baster||9||53||5yoG||19||$6,827||11: 4 0 2||36.36%||54.55%||811×44|
|13.||COSMONAUT||J B Cummings||Luke Nolen||8||53||4yoG||14||$11,857||10: 2 0 0||20.00%||20.00%||8×4161|
*Form Guide Credit – Ladbrokes.com.au
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