The only people brave enough to place a bet on a horse other than Australia’s best Black Caviar next race in the 2011 Schweppes Stakes on Cox Plate Day are those doing so in the special ‘Without The Favourite’ markets being offered by bookies around the country and that’s because Black Caviar will win, but by how much?
Peter Moody’s undefeated turf star Black Caviar is the people’s horse of modern day racing, and her supporters will be out in force at Moonee Valley on Saturday to see her join the mighty Queenslander Bernborough and the outstanding 1890 Melbourne Cup winner Carbine on 15 consecutive victories.
In Moonee Valley Race 5 at 3:20pm (AEDST), the $300,000 Group 2 Schweppes Stakes (1200m), fans will be able to watch the queen run her way to another win and continue the fairytale story that is Black Caviar’s career.
With just four horses, of notable mediocrity compared to the favourite, taking on Black Caviar in the Schweppes Stakes 2011 it is little wonder the best odds you can find on the champion to win is $1.04 at Luxbet.
Moody is also more confident than ever in his stable ace, saying she had come on well since her first-up run a fortnight ago.
“I think her first-up run’s brought her on and I’m very pleased with her,” he said.
“Naturally she’s cleaned up in the coast a bit, she’s a little brighter, she’s a bit lighter on her feet and she knows it’s game time again.
“I had to probably do a little bit more because the race didn’t take a lot out of her, so she’s had a couple of nice gallops and it’s looking good for Saturday.
“I really think she’s coming to her peak of her powers now.
“She’s had no issues physically or mentally, she’s in great shape and where previously she’s had little niggles here and there, this time around she’s 100 percent.”
The question, then, becomes not whether Black Caviar will win the Schweppes Stakes but what her winning margin will be.
At Australia’s best bookie Luxbet punters can bet on the Schweppes Stakes winning margin, which is really how many lengths Black Caviar will thrash her rivals by.
Official Schweppes Stakes Winning Margin
Moonee Valley Race 5 – 22/10/2011
- Dead heat to 2.49 Lengths – $5.50 Luxbet
- 2.5 Lengths to 3.99 Lengths – $4.20 Luxbet
- 4.0 Lengths to 5.99 Lengths – $3.20 Luxbet
- 6.0 Lengths or More – $2.60 Luxbet
The favourite Schweppes Stakes result here is for Black Caviar to win by six or more lengths.
Yes she is far superior to any of the four rivals she faces tomorrow, but Black Caviar has only won by such a large margin once in her stunning career to date when she beat home Demerit by six in the Listed Blue Sapphire Stakes (1200m) at Caulfield on May 2, which was just her second career start.
Black Caviar’s last-start win in the Group 2 Schillaci Stakes (1000m) was by four and a half lengths over Karuta Queen, while at Moonee Valley over 1200 metres her biggest winning margin was 5.5 lengths in last year’s Schweppes Stakes when she beat home the late-great Hot Danish.
Collectively over 14 starts for 14 wins Black Caviar has beaten her closest rivals by 46.9 lengths, for an average of 3.35 lengths.
While she certainly has the freakish ability to win by six or more on Saturday, Black Caviar isn’t at her grand final yet with the $1 million Group 1 Patianck Farm Classic (1200m) still to go at Flemington on Emirates Stakes Day, Saturday November 5.
That’s why the Races.com.au team are tipping Black Caviar to coast to a commanding, but reserved for her ability, winning margin of 2.5 – 3.99 Lengths which is paying $4.20 at Luxbet.
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