Murwillumbah trainer Matthew Dunn is looking...
This Saturday the 2011 Cox Plate will take center stage at Moonee Valley and while there is plenty of value to be found in the straight-out Win, Place and Exotic markets on Australasia’s weight-for-age championship, for punters looking at something a little different the bookies are offering a great range of special markets on everything from the winning margin to the saddlecloth number of the Cox Plate winner.
The $3 million Group 1 Tatts Cox Plate (2040m) is set to run as Race 8 at Moonee Valley on Saturday and is due to jump at 5:35pm (AEDST).
The current 14-horse field of hopefuls is led by the Peter Snowden-trained Helmet, the sole three-year-old in the race continuing to gain support having been well-backed in from $3.50 to $3.20 at Luxbet.
Helmet may have age and race experience against him going into the 2011 Cox Plate, but this is no ordinary youngster.
They already have three Group 1 wins up their sleeve and carrying just 49.5kg in the Cox Plate, it is a brave punter that writes Helmet off on their age alone.
History is definitely against Helmet here with the past 12 Caulfield Guineas winners attempting a Cox Plate victory in the same season all finishing out of the money, but Red Anchor did it in 1984 and Snowden remains hopeful that even from barrier 10 Helmet can do it again.
The other 2011 Cox Plate hopes under double-figures at Luxbet are outstanding New Zealander Jimmy Choux ($6) drawn one inside the favourite and Jim Conlan’s Moonee Valley whizz Rekindled Interest ($7.50).
Not far behind in the betting are the likes of last-start Epsom Handicap winner Secret Admirer ($11), pacesetter Glass Harmonium ($12) drawn to perfection in gate four and Peter Moody’s proven 2000 metre mare King’s Rose ($12).
There are plenty of great horses at great prices in the Cox Plate 2011, but what about those Luxbet special markets?
2011 Cox Plate Betting Specials
Moonee Valley Race 8 Markets
- Dead Heat to 0.99 Lengths – $2.80 Luxbet
- 1 Length to 1.99 Lengths – $2.80 Luxbet
- 2 Lengths or more – $2.60 Luxbet
If it is race favourite Helmet you fancy to win, his last-start Guineas success was only by a nose, and of his six career wins to date three have been by a length or less making a Dead Heat to 0.99 Lengths the best bet here.
Last year So You Think won the 2010 Cox Plate by 1.3 lengths, the year before as a 3YO they won by 2.5 lengths.
Other recent Cox Plate winning margins have been:
- 2008 Maldivian by 1 Length
- 2007 El Segundo by 3 Lengths
- 2006 Fields Of Omagh 0.1 Lengths
- 2005 Makybe Diva 1.3 Lenths
The average Cox Plate Winning Margin range over the past six years then is 1 – 1.99 Lengths.
Will a Four-Year-Old Win the Cox Plate?
History suggests the best age to win a Cox Plate is four with 26 winners throughout history having won as a four-year-old, the most recent being So You Think 12 months ago.
There are nine 4YO’s in contention this year, the shortest-priced of which is Jimmy Choux paying $6 at Luxbet.
Saddle Cloth Odd v Even
State of Origin – Which Team Will Produce the Cox Plate Winner
- Team VIC – $1.35 Luxbet
#1 Efficient, #4 Glass Harmonium, #9 Rekindled Interest, #10 Shamrocker, #11 Pinker Pinker, #13 King’s Rose, #14 Helmet, #15 Avienus
- Team NSW – $9 Luxbet
#6 Sincero, #12 Secret Admirer
- Team WA – $61 Luxbet
#8 Playing God
- Team NZ – $4 Luxbet
#3 Wall Street, #5 Jimmy Choux, #7 Lion Tamer
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